Wednesday, January 6, 2016

We Must Accept the Fact of a Multi State Iraq.

Saudi - Iran Feud Poses Threat to Iraq's Effort to Combat ISIS is certainly true if we insist that there is a central Baghdad government worth keeping.  No disrespect to Prime Minister al-Abadi, but he is trying to hold together a top down solution in a country where bottom up tribal leaders are really in charge.  This is what General Petraeus found during the surge where he paid them directly for their cooperation and suddenly it turned everything around.  The chaos that came back to Iraq after our withdrawal was because of former Prime Minister al-Malaki cutting off these direct payments to Sunni tribal leaders. Soon cooperation was lost and the ensuing political dysfunction opened the door to ISIS. It's impossible for the current government to go back to direct payments because of political impediments that will not be overcome, especially in light of the sectarian emotions fueled by Sunni Suadia Arabia's thoughtless execution of a Shiite cleric.  The strategy of holding a unified Iraq together is a failure.  The country will break apart into autonomous states covering Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish regions.  Our tactics toward the grand goal of pacifying the Middle East must accept the fact of a multi state Iraq.  

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