No "Podemos"

Spain, as other southern Mediterranean countries, is in a distressing quagmire where its young people are on life support and with no nourishment with which to enrich their souls.  It is a country ripe for an intelligent revolution lead by it’s well educated university students and recent graduates and so upon hearing of a self started political movement called “Podemos”, which translates to “We Can!”, I was optimistic that my mother country may be exploring a way out of the doldrums.  But a quick study reveals a movement morphing into the usual Latin authoritarian answer with Pablo Iglesias, its provisional leader, declaring he is of the left, but more radical than the Socialists. Apparently he considers Hugo Chavez of Venezuela a personality cult worth emulating.

A radical movement for Spain would be one that directed its energies to promote the individual rather than the collective.  Doubling down on the collective is not a way to liberate the country’s intelligent youth.  Authoritarian directives from above render those below to the status of farm animals with their physical needs taken care of but without the slaughterhouse to provide meat on the table as an expression of some meaning for a desultory life.  Why is there not a Libertarian party in Spain to counter authoritarians?  Well, there is and its called exactly that “Partido Libertario” modeled after the British Liberal Party.  It appears to have come out rather recently with a manifesto, professionally produced commercial, web page and the usual social media links. It has no traction in Spain where as our Libertarian Party’s meager one percent showing is nothing compared to a great ideological influence promoted by The Cato Institute think tank and our Anglo Common Law heritage. Unfortunately the other side are cultures with a strong Roman Empire heritage and the autocratic code of the Caesars through that of Napoleon hampering the cultivation of the individual. The P-LIB in Spain appears to have run out of fuel for the debate as witnessed by great initial activity and then nothing posted on Youtube for over a year. Sad, but not unexpected.

During this investigation I found a Liberal International organization headquartered in Rotterdam, Holland. I had no idea that Libertarians were organized throughout the world. It seems contrary to our local non world order perspective, though a great educating influence.

An Invasion Plan from Northern Jordan

Obama's counter terrorism efforts should be pouring money and support into the Syrian refugee camps in north Jordan. Jordan is currently resisting more refugees because “Foreign aid to Jordan and to the U.N. refugee agency reached only 29 percent of what is needed this year, and the rest of burden will fall onto our shoulders,” King Abdullah II is quoted saying.  This reaction has to be turned around so that Jordan accepts more and more refugees to form the Moderate Sunni Syria government in exile that will have the militia and police to reconquer and govern their villages in Syria. Without a political union such as this, there is always a vacuum left after the bombs where the roaches come back.

The Breakdown of Artificial Nation States in Syria and Iraq Begins

More than a Battle, Kobani is a Publicity War is showing the outlines of a new order in the Middle East. ISIS's misdirection where instead of taking territory of its Sunni Arab brethren they attack Kobani, a brick wall of Kurdish refugees holding on because defeat means annihilation.  Turkey has its army looking on without interfering because its Sunni preference is for ISIS, and against Shia Alawate Assad.  This preference is stirring the Kurdish, so call terrorist by the Turkish government, resistance in Turkey.  It is this idiocy on the part of the Turkish government which will cause what they most do not want to happen which is the formation of an independent Kurdish State along the borders northern Syria and Iraq and into the southern border of Turkey.

My Point Exactly

The point: It has to start with them. The best we can do is amplify. David Kilcullen, the Australian counterinsurgency expert who served with the U.S. in Iraq and Afghanistan, told me: “Just like there is a spark of life in a physical body, there has to be a spark of legitimacy and coherence in a body politic. And, if it is not there, trying to substitute for it is like putting a cadaver on a slab and harnessing a lightning bolt to it to bring it back to life. You end up with Dr. Frankenstein. You can animate a corpse and make it walk and talk, but sooner or later it’s going to go rogue. ... When you don’t have the local leadership, invading does not make things better. It makes them worse.”

Iraqi Sunnis will be Last

It is this blogger's opinion that the Kurdish of Iraq Kurdistan will be the first to form a separate moderate state and that the Moderate Sunni Government in Exile based in the North Jordan South Syrian border will be the second state and that Iraq's Sunnis will be the last because Iraq and U.S. Find Potential Sunni Allies Have Already Been Lost headline in today's New York Times.

Making Hero's Out of Our Enemy

Airstrikes Blunt ISIS, But Draw Civilian Ire is a worst nightmare outcome to the President's counteroffensive.  The Islamic State is the current indispensable service provider in Raqqa, Syria. Our bombs that deny these services without replacement make it worse. Before we degrade more we need a suitable service provider available to take over.
An even scarier headline is Top U.S. General Says He's open to Using Ground Troops to Retake Mosul which would require building to building combat in an urban setting.  1st, good luck in finding Iraqi soldiers willing to die for Iraq in this U.S. lead civil war, especially the Shia and pesh merga Kurds with no interest in sacrificing themselves in a region other than their own. Finally the corrupt Baghdad government is incapable of holding the city with capable police and other service providers and so as the tide of Americans recedes ISIS returns.

Its Economics not Politics - The Pipeline to Nowhere

Transocean Challenged by Falling Oil Prices indicated a $2.7 Billion write down of assets, ocean oil rig value, in this environment of plenty killing the investment prospect of the expensive hard to find and or extract stuff. Not a good omen for the tar sands of Canada.  On pure economics, without externalities such as costs of despoiling land and air, the high percentage of energy required to mine, heat, process and finally transport this fuel probably puts tar underwater in sub $75 a barrel oil market.*  This back of the envelope observation puts the Keystone Pipeline in jeopardy for economic reasons rather than political.  Politically it should pass because the transport of oil in pipelines is safer than in trains, but from an investor's perspective its a loser proposition based on an engine that costs more to run than what it produces and once Canada wakes up to the fact millions of acres are spoiled over a bad business proposition, it might be the pipeline to nowhere.

* The Cost of Production and Energy Returns of Oil Sands article indicates a WTI (West Texas Intermediate - Light Sweet Crude which is easiest to refine) oil price of $90-100 per barrel requirement.

A Record of Government Shrinkage that Romney Would Have Been Proud of if Elected in 2012

Government Shows Growth, After Years of Shrinking shows a Obama record of reduced Government, both Federal and State, participation in our economy so that it's at a level not seen since 1948; or before the Marshall Plan, Korean War and in the midst of the WWII wind down.

Can't Underestimate the Need to Stay on the Plantation

Mitch McConnell's re-election to the Senate from the state of Kentucky is inexplicable in terms of people voting for their economic well being.  Ignorance and prejudice appear to the winners.

Here in Connecticut it's hard to comprehend Tom Foley's very strong run as Governor against Dannel Malloy.  It was a robber baron versus a competent administrator and it's a close call.

The Horse before the Cart Syndrome

Iraqis Prepare ISIS Offensive, With U.S. Help looks way too early with the comment that police are being trained to fill in the void when ISIS is knocked out.  Ferguson Missouri is a good example of what outside Shia policing local Sunni's will be like. ISIS on the other hand has methodically executed local moderates that could of have helped with the policing.  

What's Good About the Economy

More American are Preferring the Lease to the Mortgage is a point in what's good about the economy.  The 2008 crash of Wall Street's defective production of single home mortgage back securities caused a huge mal-investment in housing.  In comparison Ireland, Spain and now it appears to have come light in China, I first learned of in a 60 Minutes expose by Leslie Stahl, where whole cities with malls apartments were built on spec without a single resident to rot away, our bubble wasn't that bad! At least the housing stock is being used.  Re-valued at lower prices yes, but least an investment with some value.  The other thing is that the market is building what there is demand for, rental housing.  With the brakes put on Banks acting like lechers, housing is going back to a normal mix of rental and ownership.  Its a good thing and not something to bemoan in the name of job creation.