Culture War

David Brooks The Next Culture War is a problem because its called a war.  Separation of State and Church is a fundamental vision of our forefathers so that any effort to combine the two is anti American. The Amish appear to live a very restricted religious life without making outsiders do the same.  Why can't the religious right use this apolitical example of devotion and adherence?

A Strategy to Pacify

A strategy to pacify the regions of Iraq and Syria is to let the Shia, Sunni and Kurdish political unions self organize into the respective states rather than trying to hold together artificially drawn boundaries of the European powers post Ottoman Empire.  U. S. Support for Kurds in Syria Angers Turks is a natural Status Quo reaction that needs to be resisted. The Kurds are the most functional political union of Iraq and Syria. They are a natural ally to help pacify the region and to deny them their dream of a Kurdistan of their own would be counterproductive, idiotic actually.
Because the U.S. has still not figured out the strategy is to pacify, the Administration is still holding onto the losing policy of trying to hold Iraq together. Maliki, the former Prime Minister of Iraq, destroyed such a possibility and its just not not understandable how a careful analytical President such as Barack Obama doesn't see it.

Hair Trigger Reacting

Citing Ben Affleck's improper influence, PBS Suspends "Finding Your Roots" is a tawdry result of what was probably a quick decision.  If Affleck had contemplated rather than reacted he might not have missed an interesting dialogue with Professor Gates. Instead he used his power to suppress a sin of his father as any authoritarian would.

Air Power Making it Worse

Saudi Bombing in Yemen is Seen as Only Fanning the Flames is an example of the counter result's from air power.  The air strikes strengthen Shia Iran by making local heroes of the Houthis and its rebellion against the dysfunctional Sunni state that Saudi Arabia supports and whose leader they are giving sanctuary.

The Political Tool of a Rational Rebel Group

"Grim ISIS Video Meant to Cow Civilians" is an example of terror used as a weapon to conquer and dominate. It's a political tool of a rational rebel group.  Its ludicrous to think of ISIS as a chaos fomenting existential threat to the United States.

Reactive versus Contemplative

Can Wikipedia Survive is an editorial that strikes me as coming from someone who doesn't understand media.  As a global encyclopedia its not a medium that benefits from short tweets of a smart phone user but one coming from an instrument that concentrates rather than distracts.

Why I bring this up is the thought that the instantaneous empowers the authoritarian.   There is an editorial here.

Moral Suasion

Coincidently just finished Russ Robert’s explanation of Adam Smith’s Theory of Moral Sentiments as Pope Francis issued his encyclical on climate change. Coincidence because one believes in moral suasion of individuals while the other practices it but doesn’t believe in it. Smith, according to Roberts, prefers social messaging, such as giving tobacco smoking a negative aura that reduces its use rather than making an authoritarian decree against it. Francis on the other hand issues a Papal Encyclical to authoritarian experts on the technicalities of flagrant energy use when his move to modest living quarters despite a tradition of papal opulence says much more to his flock and others about the morality of lower consumption.

June 23rd

Thank you David Brooks for Franciscans and Fracking and clarifying my misgivings of Pope Francis' encyclical on global warming which distrusts the spontaneous order of individuals acting freely in their own self interest.

Europe's Dread of Failure

James B. Stewart's Common Sense editorial: A Fearless Culture Fuels Tech  is so good I am archiving it here for future reference.

“ISIS is coming! Send troops. ISIS is coming! Send Troops”

President Obama’s ratcheting up of the number of military advisers into Iraq is a raise of the ante in a poker game that is clearly lost.  Lost to muddled thinking regarding the misuse of the terms tactic and strategy.   It appears that we are pursuing the tactic to support a unified Iraq toward a strategy difficult to fathom other than one to hold together a status quo of despot regimes.   Also the administration misperceives what the enemy is by its continued use of the name ISIS or ISIL for the Sunni rebellion that morphed into the more politically acceptable Daesh. This development ends the need for the United States to militarily engage in the region, not increase it.               

ISIS is clearly remnants of Saddam Hussein's Baathist Party with the know how to organize economic, military and propaganda resources.  The gruesome beheadings of western reporters was a recruitment call to bloodthirsty jihadist from afar and the local more numerous atrocities with cadavers left in public places spread terror for conquest and domination.  In the vacuum of politically dysfunctional Syria and Iraq the terrorist tactics of ISIS were useful in conquering great swaths of territories  containing money making oil wells and refineries to fund their operations. With the easy conquests came the braggadocio of an Islamic Caliphate to unite extremist Sunnis for more funding and recruitment. It’s all quite logical if they are thought of in terms of a rebel group rather than the chaos fomenting terrorist group that is Al Qaeda.

ISIS’s recent conversion to Daesh, a political union of Sunnis, comes from its defeats in Kobani and Tikrit.  The Kurds’ pesh merga militia showed ISIS the limits of the caliphate.  It could not dominate a region populated by those loyal to another powerful political and ethnic sect such as Iraq’s Kurdistan.  Also the unintended consequence of U.S. airstrikes  forced the ISIS apparatchik to live with the people and develop political acumen. The metamorphosis of ISIS into Daesh makes it a political entity capable of filling the Sunni voids in Syria and Iraq.

Daesh’s current policy is to consolidate, hold and govern Sunnis.  The Shia regions of Iraq are more or less safe from Daesh because of the lesson learned in Kobani  where the vision of a caliphate dominating a rebellious Shia population has been tempered by experience.  This analysis suggests the split in Iraq among its Sunni, Shia and Kurdish regions has  happened and that President Obama and his administration are in denial that it is so.  Upping the ante to help Iraq’s Prime Minister al-Abadi’s losing political battle to form a united Iraq is pointless now that Daesh is entering into an era of political normalcy.  Reinforcing Baghdad’s hand in such as scenario is akin to taking sides in a civil war which has already been decided.  Its a meddlesome intervention that can not be called  a tactic nor a strategy, rather a mindless charge of the bull toward the waving red cape.

The United State’s goal in the Middle East should be nothing more than to pacify. A primary tactic would be to relieve the pressures of sectarian conflict. The Middle east is a series of artificially drawn boundaries by the European powers after the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire.  Let these tribes reconfigure into self determined regions.  This  understanding would make the uselessness of negotiating a peace accord with Assad in Syria obvious. Never the less you see headlines occasionally suggesting it.  Our support for despot regimes is contrary to our ideals and heritage of our founders and the Declaration of Independence.  Bemoaning the fact that Qaddafi isn’t around anymore to hold Libya together or to give support to General Sisi's military coup d'etat in Egypt is giving in to a gut reaction to  screw down tight the pressure cooker bombs.  These contrary actions to our ideals make us the Great Satan Iran accuses us of being and gives propaganda ammunition to our enemies. Instead of mindlessly clucking like Chicken Little “ISIS is coming! Send troops. ISIS is coming! Send Troops” lets think more like a doctor whose first prescript is: do no harm. Let’s not exacerbate and ignore long festering realities.

Amoral not Immoral

Some think of free markets and the profit motive as immoral rather than more correctly amoral, as in not making a moral judgement. Adam Smith is best known for the Wealth of Nations which describes the spontaneous economic order of free market activity delivering the greater good from those working in their self interest.  The Theory of Moral Sentiments appears to be, that is according to Russ Roberts How Adam Smith Can Change Your Life: An Unexpected Guide to Human Nature and Happiness, a spontaneous moral order developed by Smith. Robert's interpretation is terrific.

The problem with Air Power

"The battles can be won. They just don't stay won."

ISIS converting to Daesh

ISIS Takes Root, Mixing Service With Strictures is the conversion. Oh, they are still terrorist you say? Worse than Assad in Damascus? Sisi in Egypt? Ayatollah in Iran?

Conflicted Republican

While reading With Water Precious, Thirsty Colorado Does Battle Over Ownership of Rain I couldn't help wondering about State Senator Jerry Sonnenberg, Republican from the farming and ranching town Sterling, Colorado calling rain barrels a means of stealing.  Jerry as a western Republican betrays his Goldwater heritage by picking on the water that falls on a home owner's roof as being public property! No doubt he is normally against intrusive government and rails against Washington edicts ad nauseam. His hypocrisy needs railing into.

Torture - John Oliver

Torture

Obama Administration Doesn't See its Game Over in Iraq

One headline reads A Kurdish Wall Stalls ISIS and the other U.S. Sees Failure in Fighting ISIS on Social Media and yet the Obama administration doesn't see the picture which is Daesh, the Arabic name for ISIS or ISIL, is a Sunni Rebellion.  A rebellion of religious cohorts that after its push back in Kurdish Kobani in Northern Syria and a loss of Tikrit in Iraq to a moderate Sunni tribe has morphed into a political union that governs to consolidate its hold in the regions they control.  It almost completely done so that if a Sunni were interviewed in Iraq or Syria they would indicate a preference for Daesh versus Shia Assad in Syria or Maleki, face it he is still dashing any hope of Sunni and Shia reconciliation, in Iraq.  Its game over!  Any force the U.S. puts to bear exacerbates the revolt and makes for the easy jihad recruitment against the Great Satan on social media.  

William Easterly

Just discovered him on YouTube as a recovering expert in a Cato presentation. In a TheEconomist presentation "William Easterly and Dambisa Moyo: Emerging Economies in 2013" Easterly is downbeat about China because its authoritarian regime doesn't allow market and news feedback to redirect the economy. Moyo brings up Singapore as an authoritarian state that grew and Easterly answers as if he hadn't thought about it much.  Earlier though, he explains China's recent boom as coming from the expansion of freedom after Mao's death. Possibly the explanation for Singapore is that freedom expanded as the economy grew.  Another example is Pinochet in Chile who did the country a favor by putting himself up for election and losing, never the less the boom was on and with the conversion to democracy at the appropriate time, the prosperity continued!

Why Does U.S. Foreign Policy Always Deny Our Revolutionary Heritage?

After Victory in Turkey, Kurds Across Mideast Dream of Bigger Prize. A pacifying strategy for the Middle East is to let the ethnic regions divide into their own nation states.  For the Kurds that would mean ruffling the status quo states of Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria.  For the United States of America, the great defender of Status Quo, its unfathomable.

Digital Analytics Require Intelligence

G.O.P. Embraces Digital Strategies, but Doubts Persist.  An upcoming study from UNC at Chapel Hill shows a five to one ratio among digital staffers in Democratic versus Republican campaigns.  Republican awareness of this deficiency will no doubt correct the numbers but the lop sided effectiveness of the Democrats' strategies will not change. Tech mercenaries will fill the G.O.P. ranks, but digital analytics requires an inquisitive intelligence that the party doesn't foster.    

To be a Fly on the Wall

U. S. Is Rethinking Strategy for Battling ISIS headline indicated heated debate within the White House regarding what to do in Iraq after ISIS's taking of Ramadi.  The wrong use of the word strategy versus tactic indicates our foreign policy's befuddlement.  Strategy is not a reaction to an opponent's action. ISIS's slow conversion to a political union, on the other hand, is a recognition of a strategy, one to rule the areas they conquer.  This change by ISIS indicates game over for our politically dysfunctional Baghdad ally. The small win in Syria for American lead Rebel Forces shows a successful tactic without a strategic backup of what to do once the base is conquered. Is there anyone in the area who cares that the base was conquered by the U. S. backed rebels?

June 11
Trainers Intended as Lift, but Quick Iraq Turnaround Is Unlikely.  The war against ISIS was lost as soon as it morphed into a political union that is preferred by Sunnis compared to Baghdad's Shia alternative. Apparently we are doubling down on our commitment for a unified Iraq in pursuit of sunken costs.  Its what happened in Vietnam.

What is The Economist smoking?

Entangled in the Economist reads like a neocon brief for more of the same losing tactics.

Brooks is on Board!

David Brook's The Separation Strategy on Iraq also credits Joe Biden for a policy to let Iraq Federalize into Sunni, Shia and Kurdish political zones.  One comment was on how is it proposed we accomplish this?  We accomplish it by doing absolutely nothing! Sunnis ISIS is developing more governance everyday and is converting itself into a Sunni political union that to many Sunnis in Iraq has more legitimacy than Shia Baghdad.  In Sunni Syria its the same with ISIS preferred to Assad's Shia regime. Game over.

What I can't understand is the recently reported inroads of ISIS into Afghanistan against the Taliban.   ISIS and the  Taliban are both Sunnis and enemies of Iran.  

Who's Willing to Fight for Iraq? - My Point Exactly!

The New York Times Editorial drew this number one NYT Picks comment:

Joshua Schwartz

 Ramat-Gan, Israel 10 hours ago

Mr. Carter is correct. Iraqi troops show no will to fight for Iraq and that is because there is no Iraq, but rather only tribal, ethnic, religious and sectarian factions.
Few seem to be loyal to an entity that inspires no allegiance. Many also serve for the salary. It's just a living, and that salary is enjoyed by the living, not the dead.

One can train the Iraqi army ad infinitum, but until there is an Iraq that they are willing to die for, it's all just a waste of time.

Joe Biden

His son's death and its publicity gives me an opportunity to acknowledge my opinion on an Iraq broken into its Sunni, Shia and Kurdish regions comes from Joe Biden.