Cities Made by Decree to Meet GDP Targets not the Public Good

China's Obsession with GDP Targets Threatens its Economy is an example of how authoritarians go wrong. An economy with just a few big hands manipulating levers can never reach the same level of public good as many players interacting among each other can in sussing out the true costs and benefits.  China made cities by decree, that no one lives in these cities because there was no price benefit mechanism to determine that they were wanted is the problem.

U.N.'s Useless Hand Wringing on Syria

Syrian Opposition Blocs Still Won't Commit to Joining Peace Talks because there are no elements of a unified Syria in existence! Staffan de Mistura, the United Nations special envoy for the Syria, press conference is just useless hand wringing because Humpty Dumpty's yolk is splattered all over the ground and the egg shell pieces are scattered to the wind. Rather than trying to get the powerless and vulnerable in a negotiation the U.N. should oversee the creation of separate nation states out of Syria! The first step is to ask Russia and Iran to isolate and contain their client, Bashar al-Assad, in his Alawite enclave North of Lebanon by the sea.

News flash for the Donald, China is losing!

China's Effect on U.S. Labor gets a Closer Academic Look is an example of economist examining recent phenomenon, China's economic rise and U.S. labor's dislocation, and then try to develop policies to remedy the perceived problem. Economies, however, adjust to reality before academics can identify it so that a so called remedy hinders rather than improves.  Trumps says China is winning.  It resonates with those who have been hurt by China's low labor costs but that's past.  Today China's labor is higher and those seeking low labor cost have moved on to other countries. Many business recognises labor is not the only cost; materials and logistics need accommodating as well so that labor can rise in a country with low costs commodities and transportation systems. China's Authoritarians have plucked all the low hanging fruit. For them to progress they need a free market unhindered by the crony capitalism of its authoritarian state and a free press, at least a business one, to audit the results for correct allocation of assets.  Otherwise its like saying in the 1930's that the Soviet Union under Stalin is winning.  

So much for the Vaunted GOP Stewardship of our Economy

Except for Rand Paul, the Republican candidates, Democrats neither but its a given, don't care about the national debt.  Carpet bombing is expensive! If you are for carpet bombing or any other overwhelming show of military force you are for blowing the debt and accepting the same poor result as George W Bush's invasion of Iraq.  

Angela Merkel: Make Jordan's Refugees Camps the New Utopia!

Thomas, your editorial "Friends and Refugees in Need" is obviously from a cognac or two while pontificating among the elites in Davos, Switzerland about what ails the world. Clearly Angela Merkel's attempt to assuage past sins and make Germany an utopia for refugees has had dire consequences. Primarily it put asylum seekers on a dangerous trek through hostile lands and people and secondarily endangered the social fabric of Germany and its neighbors, countries with less means and tolerance. The utopia beacon has got to be turned off now for everyone's sake! Definitely before the influx begins anew in April and further threatens everyone, the refugees and the European Union.
From one elite to another, Germany needs to turn on the money faucet in Jordan's refugees camps housing Syrian on their Northwest border and make it the new utopia! Make it so attractive it redirects the northward migration and fills these camps with moderate people desiring a decent life who self organize politically to then push into Syria's southern border and create city states protected by Jordan troops and allied air cover. Syria's sovereignty under Assad's dysfunction needs as much regard as a used condom, but it would be helpful if the Allies were to negotiate with Russia and Iran to isolate and contain Assad in his Alawite enclave north of Lebanon by the sea so as to keep his barrel bombing helicopters out of the sky and not threaten the germinating city states. It's just a thought as I finish off my brandy.

Terri Schiavo Case was Grossest Example of Government Over Reach Ever!

Jeb Bush uses in a political ad Terri Schiavo, the brain dead woman on life support who he refuse to let die against her husband's wishes and got his brother W to get Congress to look into the issue.  Its a gross example of government over reach that disqualifies him.

Washington Dysfunction better than Dumbed down Federal Handouts and Laws

The beauty of Washington dysfunction is that it empowers locals to do what benefits them as described in The Upshot's "Liberals Turn to Cities to Pass Laws and Spread Ideas" rather than depend on dumbed down federal handouts and make others live with dumbed down laws.

NYT Editorial Board Misses the Point: State not Defense Should Open Front in Libya

Opening a New Front Against ISIS by the New Times editorial board misses the point about Libya and the need for a war declaration. Why is the Department of Defense and not State in charge of the Administration's focus in Libya?  First recognize that Libya is a country of tribes without a sense of a unified nation. With oil prices low a good opportunity exists to work with the U.N. to hold and direct oil payments to tribal leaders, not to a nonexistent central government, in the various regions of Libya thereby giving the power of the purse to locals with a concern for the public good.  With oil prices as low as they are the problem of leakage is low which keeps the money hungry ISIS machine at bay and gives a few years for the moderating effect of local leadership to take hold.

Alliances costing our Blood, Treasure and Moral Standing

If we are to ever balance our budget then its imperative that our Foreign Policy be one that pacifies rather than inflames.  Ted Cruz' suggestion we carpet bomb ISIS shows no regard for the blow-back of martyrs for recruiting, propagandizing and most importantly vengeance seeking, for example the loner radicalized by American bombs wiping out his family and taking revenge here in the U.S. Blow-back as originally explained by Ron Paul, father of Rand, was our CIA ousting of an elected administration in Iran and placing the young Shah in its place.  The outcome was twenty years of stability and then thirty five years and counting dealing with an implacable enemy.  Perilous Partners by Cato's Ted Galen Carpenter and Malou Innocent exposes Alliances which cost us our blood and treasure and, most damning, diminish our moral standing.  

Democrats are Authoritarian so Republican answer to their Ying is more?

The GOP is reaping the grains of philosophical discord sowed these past few years where Mitch McConnell determined that the party’s one and only mandate was to make Barack Obama a one term President. The National Review’s rejection of Trump because of his opportunism and lack of an ideology is priceless when one can say the same of Conservatism.  William F. Buckley, the magazine’s founder, broke out into intellectual and political circles in 1951 with his God and Man at Yale written just after his graduation and where he decried the collectivist perspective forced upon his individual one at college. With his publication he drew American Conservatism out of it’s John Birch Society hole and redirected it toward a Libertarian, Classical Liberal, political movement of liberty and individual freedom which moved to nominate Barry Goldwater as a Presidential candidate and culminated with the election of Ronald Reagan.  Conservatism and The Republican Party got off track, however, when with their adulation of Reagan they encouraged activist Evangelicals to politicize their values.  It’s curious that this happened under Reagan because there is no evidence that he was much of a church goer especially when compared to the Baptist sunday school teacher Jimmy Carter, but single issue pro lifers found a welcome in the GOP’s tent and party ideologues thereafter did not understand that these additional neutrons could cause the party to split. It’s a process called fission and in its nuclear form lets loose an awful lot undirected energy.

Evangelical authoritarian capture has redirected the party’s economic narrative to a crony capitalism worthy of the previous Gilded Age. Reagan swept into office after Milton Friedman’s Free to Choose market based celebration of the individual and freedom. Now the party pulse has ossified to the elitist strictures of Ludwig von Mises, a relic of the Austro Hungarian Empire and the ideological Laissez Faire orthodoxy of the previous Gilded Age.  That Theodore Roosevelt as described by Doris Kearns Goodwin in The Bully Pulpit, broke free of his class with a Trust Busting break up of the concentration of power is the greatness of his presidency which The Republican Party as presently constituted is completely blind to. The point of distinction between Von Mises and Friedman is that one has no respect for anyone less than an elite while the other is an egalitarian admirer of the little man and the swarm of individuals described in Adam Smith’s Wealth of Nations as working in their own self interest to create society's greatest good.  

The current Republican Orthodoxy is blind to its conspicuous celebrities doling out a cynical message of an equal opportunity ticket to the lottery of life. It supports along with Democrats the concentration of power in Washington because it morphed government largesse under their watch to the benefit of a few who coincidentally, or maybe not, are lead by the same name, J. P. Morgan.  The crux of the Republican problem is if Democrats are authoritarian, Barack Obama being a prime example of FDR authoritarianism, then what is their yang to the others ying; more authoritarianism?  The National Review is horrified by Trump because he his ideologically unhinged but so are they with their support for Ted Cruz.  He is the facile embodiment of a debater who can defend any proposition, even the impossible Conservative one that embraces free market matter and evangelical antimatter who will lead them to an empty annihilating mandate.

Belief Doubling Down on Government is the Solution than Opposite, Halving it!

Comment on David Brooks' "The Anxiety of Impotence" :

The impotence described is Demosclerorsis defined by Jonathan Rauch as "government's progressive loss of the ability to adapt." with the buildup of interest groups that never die and on other side George Will, who describes it as "barnacles on the ship of state." It appears that Brooks believes a doubling down on more government is the solution rather than the opposite, the halving of government.

Why Commit to a Short Term and Costly Failure in Syria?

As Syrian Peace Talks Near, U.S. and Russia Can’t Agree on the Participants describes Secretary of State John Kerry's pursuit of a commitment of resources to what will be a short term and costly failure. With little sense of nation left in Syria why commit to hold it together? The most effective and economical tactic currently is to negotiate with Russia and Iran to isolate and contain their client, Bashar al-Assad, in his Alawite enclave above Lebanon by the Mediterranean Sea.  With barrel bombing helicopters out of the way the various other sects are free to coalesce elsewhere and support given to moderate elements that develop.

"The Syrian Civil War Just Got More Complex" from Cato Institute's Ted Galen Carpenter underscores the need to allow the various sects to assert themselves. Our policy should not try to figure it out and select.

Less Secure at Home from Individual Vengeance Seekers

Rand Paul describes the latest budget as the compromise of Neocon Republicans looking for greater arms spending and welfare Democrats looking to provide more social services. If we are truly desirous of reducing government and its spending then our foreign policy must focus on issues where we can be effective and economical. To paraphrase Teddy Roosevelt; we already have the world’s biggest stick so that we should speak softly and know when and how to use it.

Harvard Professor Nicholas Burns in his editorial “Talk to Tehran, But Talk Tough” speaks of the Revolutionary Guards in Iran and its role in the killing of Americans in Iraq, directing Hezbollah in Lebanon to fight for Assad in Syria and backing the Houthis in Yemen as if he did not understand Iran’s motivation, defending the Shiite sect of Islam from Sunni Arabs.  First, it’s incredible that a career American diplomat not see this key to reducing emotions in the Middle East.  Second, by being blind to it makes for taking sides in a regional civil war where our big stick just exacerbates and inflames the region even more and makes us less secure at home from individual vengeance seekers and more indebted to the money lenders.

Not taking sides means for us to ratchet back our relations with Saudi Arabia to cool.  Our fracking oilmen have provided us an era of energy independence in the U.S. where we can correctly assess the House of Saud. Its a regime with so many conflicting issues and a propensity to indecision leading to chaos that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei appears logical and organized in comparison. Many will say that Saudi Arabia is a cornerstone of stability in the region. But do we need to repeat President Jimmy Carter’s experience where he was advised to declare the very same about the Shah of Iran months before he fell and Iran became an implacable enemy?  With Saudi air strikes in Yemen to push back Shiite Houthi and the execution of a Shiite Cleric increasing sectarian tensions combined with oil prices that will make its social contract of distributing largess difficult and finally a geriatric royal lineage with thousands of contenders makes for an alliance with a bleak future. Coincidentally stocking the Saudi arsenal with our latest gear is the same as letting a fleet of F14 fighter bombers, our latest at the time and the same plane featured in the 1980’s movie “Top Gun”, to fall into the Ayatollah’s hands.

Nicholas Burns is not a Neocon.  His analysis is restrained and measured yet his blindness to Iran’s motive leads to the same policies of inflaming the Middle East whether by a seasoned Hillary Clinton or over the top Neocon coached GOP hopefuls such as Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz and Chris Christie. Reducing our arms spending requires a Department of State that better assesses not only the true motives of the nation states but whether they truly are nations.  For example Syria, Iraq and Libya are tribal groups whose populace has little regard for nation and a primary loyalty to family and clan.  Wasting our blood and treasure trying to keep these states unified exposes us to the humiliation of the World witnessing us wield our big stick for no good result.

United States Should Ratchet back Relations with Saudi Arabia to Cool

Adel bin Ahmed Al-Jubeir’s editorial “Why Iran is Still Dangerous” reads like a Washington lobbyist pushing his client’s agenda in a serially one sided manner. The counter argument is that Iran is in an existential fight to defend its Persian Shiite sect of Islam from radical Sunni Arabs, fueled principally by Saudi Arabia. Rather than taking sides in this civil war in the region the United States should ratchet back relations with Saudi Arabia to a cool level.  Our fracking oilmen have provided us an era of energy independence in the U.S. where we can now correctly assess the deficiencies of our supposed ally in the Middle East. The House of Saud is a regime with so many conflicting issues and a propensity toward indecision leading to chaos that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei appears logical and organized in comparison. Many will say that Saudi Arabia is a cornerstone of stability in the region but its recent indiscriminate air strikes in Yemen to push back Shiite Houthi and the execution of a Shiite Cleric increasing sectarian tensions combined with oil prices that will make its social contract of distributing largess difficult and finally a geriatric royal lineage with thousands of contenders belie that claim. Our best tactic toward a goal of pacifying the Middle East is to withdraw support of this senile regime which exacerbates rather than pacifies tensions in the region.

We Can't Take Sides in the Sunni Shia Civil War

Nicholas Burns' "Talk to Iran, but Talk Tough"  has a meddlesome element that aggravate sores that don't require scratching.  Yes, be vigilant and talk up lapses in the recent nuclear agreement, but stay out of Islam's Sunni - Shia civil war. Lecturing Iran to stay out of Yemen and give up their support of the Houthi rebels is not our business nor is supporting Saudi Arabia's effort to protect their puppet.  The chasm in Islam is taking Arab focus off of Israel while Shiite Iran and the Sunni Gulf States deal with civil wars in Syria and Iraq, where for example Hezzbollah is directed by Iran to fight for Assad.

Jan 18 2016 Roger Cohen's "Iran Opens for Business" is much better about staying out of Islam's inner conflict.

Marco Rubio's Proclivity to Committ Our Blood and Treasure

To paraphrase the well taught good boy Neocon student, Marco Rubio, Iran would not have taken hostages because of the severe sanctions he would of had in place.  As if hostage taking is less rather than more likely under the severest of threats.  His blindness to the dangerous linkage between threats and resulting taunts in the affairs of nations reveals a proclivity to put at risk our country's blood and treasure to resolve pointless provocations.  There is no doubt that our military might is the biggest stick out there, so all the more reason to speak softly and in a manner that shows you know when and how to use it.

Keeping Iraq as One Country Triggers Chaos that Exacerbates rather than Pacifies

The sooner the United States and its allies make it their strategy to just pacify the Middle East will they realize what a losing proposition it is to keep Iraq together.  Today's headline Rising Anxiety in Baghdad Tempers Gains Against ISIS in Iraq's Provinces shows the pitfalls of top a down policy agreed to by establishmentarians when fighting an antiestablismentarian foe fomenting chaos and emotional reactions that exacerbate rather than pacify the region.

Public Land is for the Public Good and not for Retrieving Sunken Costs

In Climate Move, Administration to Halt New Coal Mining Leases on Public Lands is an off kilter way of announcing the production slowdown of a product nobody wants. Fracked natural gas is normally cheaper than coal, but if you make available public lands to strip mine at a fraction of its historical value you can make coal cheap enough to compete, but for what purpose?  To keep a few people employed wielding giant machines that destroys the land? The analysis of energy production requires a rigorous examination of all costs to determine the greater good.  Coal fails miserably in comparison to gas, when considering the scarred land and despoiling rivers of ash that utilities gather after burning.

Another example of Public Land spoiled for a mind bogglingly awful result is Canada's money losing and energy consuming coal tar sands projects scarring its land and polluting our air yet which still operate because private interests lack the courage to admit the sunken costs are irretrievable.

Monday January 18 note:  The pain of denial has reached a point where the price is $8 a barrel for Canadian Tar Sands Crude with a trend for producers having to pay for the crude they produce to be taken away. 

The GOP is Going to Blow Up

Why I will Never Vote for Donald Trump editorial written by an establishment Republican of the George Herbert Walker Bush administration and now a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center predicts the coming explosion from the party's liberty robbing direction. The establishment lit the fuse to revolt with an imperial attitude of keeping the little people on the farm to eat cake. Now the unruly peasants are revolting.

Rand Paul is the party's only hope for salvation because he asks for a mandate for liberty. The others are chicken little crying "the sky is falling the sky is falling" whose mandate, if elected, is sure to disappoint because its indeterminable.      

Ted Cruz Strict Constructionist or Fair Weather Constitutionalist?

David Brooks' "The Brutalism of Ted Cruz" hits on what his Harvard Law professor, Laurence Tribe, described as his core ideology, a strict construction interpretation of the Constitution. How ironic that the facile champion college debater now has to argue the "living Constitution" to defend his Canadian birth.

A Well Regulated Militia

The Second Amendment reads as follows:

A Well Regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.

A Well Regulated Militia requires training and certifying much like driving a car requires training and certifying. The security of a free State implies a State's right to require training and certifying. If the State of Connecticut's legislature were to enact a law with a strict training, licensing and liability insurance requirement it appears its passage would be constitutional, but a federal version would not.

Donald Trump the Authoritarian Who Asks For Your Trust

For Republicans, Fear of a Lasting Split as Class Divisions Erupt is a headline that finally identifies the libertarian free market conflict with the authoritarian prescriptions of the party.  Left and right are murky markers for defining a political policy where many positions can be claimed or discredited by those in the same party. It's reached a boiling point with the GOP where it will blow the party apart and relegate it to the Whig party ash heap.
RINO (Republican in Name Only) is a term used for the Bush Presidential Administrations which begs the question, what is a Republican? For all their bad mouthing of Barack Obama he is not a Democrat in name only, he is true to his FDR heritage and furthering an authoritarian government "who knows best" agenda. On the other hand the current front runner for the GOP nomination, Donald Trump, is a pure crony capitalist authoritarian who also promises more government to get done what he think needs to get done and with such flimsy detail that he has to finish with a "trust me, it will be beautiful" line.

Dwelling on the Message rather than the Medium

Obama Shifting Online Strategy on ISIS dwells on the message rather than the medium  

The phrase "the medium is the message" was introduced in McLuhan's most widely known book, Understanding Media: The Extensions of Man, published in 1964.^[1] McLuhan proposes that a medium itself, not the content it carries, should be the focus of study. He said that a medium affects the society in which it plays a role not only by the content delivered over the medium, but also by the characteristics of the medium itself.

Endowments Should have Divested Coal Because it's a Loser Investment

Coal Production Falls because fracked gas is cheaper. It has nothing to do with the EPA or activist divesting endowment funds of coal.  In fact endowment funds worth their management cost would have divested coal stocks years ago for pure fund performance reasons.

A strong belief in the Constitution and Personal Responsibility

My responsive to Gail Collins editorial, Wanted: Straight Shooters

I agree. I am libertarian who has a strong belief in the Constitution and personal responsibility. I don't like guns but I do like cars, Porsche in particular. I recognize they can be fast and dangerous but at a 140 mile an hour on a racetrack with an instructor showing me the proper line and method it’s a managed and responsible risk. The car is registered, liability insured and I am licensed. If I had an interest in guns then I would expect no less a stringent standard for use of such a potentially dangerous article.

Since When Have Economic Adjustments been other than Chaotic

The armchair quarterbacks at the New York Times editorial board came up with the Keynesian squared analysis that "It was inevitable that China’s economy would slow from its once turbocharged growth rates. But its leaders have made so many mistakes in recent months that they have turned what should have been a benign, natural slowdown into a chaotic descent" as if economies have direct levers to manipulate an optimum outcome.

My answer put in terms obfuscating its Adam Smith and The Wealth of Nations origin was:

At this inflection point in its economy China desperately needs a free press that audits business activity. For the past few years the claim of yearly economic growth has not squared with the reduction of commodity imports and trinkets exports. The current crisis is one of credibility which can not be jaw boned forward. It needs an impartial messaging system that allocates scarce capital to where the maximum public good is created.

Ted Cruz - Hoisted by one's Own Petard

The original birther movement against Obama was a defensive move instigated by John McCain supporters who went off the deep end trying to explain their candidate not having been born in the United States.  That the issue continued on  its wayward course with Trump still questioning Barack Obama's legitimacy in the 2012 Presidential race now puts Ted Cruz in the cross hairs to debate a very questionable birth right to serve as President of the United States. He claims its settled law.  He is going to need a lot friends in the Senate to prove it which makes the fact that he has so many GOP enemies in the Senate priceless. Its a skirmish that could light the fuse on a party ready to explode with its contradictions.

Internal Revolt Is Different from Externally Sponsored Regime Change

Rand Paul mentioned in his Exeter, New Hampshire rally last night that he is against regime change and uses Libya's Muammar Gaddafi downfall as an example.  It's not a good analysis because it was started in country, as were Tunisia's Zine El Abidine Ben Ali and Egypt's Hosni Mubarak downfalls. Also defending a regime from a popular revolt is contrary to our Declaration of Independence heritage.  On the other hand its agreed George W Bush's unilateral regime change in Iraq was a huge mistake. This point is made despite a Stand with Rand support because totalitarian regimes that promise short term stability blow up terribly and The Shah of Iran's downfall and the rise of an implacable enemy is the prime example.

We Must Accept the Fact of a Multi State Iraq.

Saudi - Iran Feud Poses Threat to Iraq's Effort to Combat ISIS is certainly true if we insist that there is a central Baghdad government worth keeping.  No disrespect to Prime Minister al-Abadi, but he is trying to hold together a top down solution in a country where bottom up tribal leaders are really in charge.  This is what General Petraeus found during the surge where he paid them directly for their cooperation and suddenly it turned everything around.  The chaos that came back to Iraq after our withdrawal was because of former Prime Minister al-Malaki cutting off these direct payments to Sunni tribal leaders. Soon cooperation was lost and the ensuing political dysfunction opened the door to ISIS. It's impossible for the current government to go back to direct payments because of political impediments that will not be overcome, especially in light of the sectarian emotions fueled by Sunni Suadia Arabia's thoughtless execution of a Shiite cleric.  The strategy of holding a unified Iraq together is a failure.  The country will break apart into autonomous states covering Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish regions.  Our tactics toward the grand goal of pacifying the Middle East must accept the fact of a multi state Iraq.  

Considering The House of Saud as an Ally against Terrorism is Delusional

David Sanger’s “U.S. Finds Itself in a Bind” has the ridiculous “fear of undermining the fragile Saudi leadership that it desperately needs in fighting the Islamic State and ending the conflict in Syria” conclusion. The House of Saud is the dysfunctional political entity that provides the fertile ground for ISIS to flourish with funding and theological extremism. Considering them as an ally against terrorism is delusional.  

Saudi Arabia's Barbaric Executions

With Saudi Arabia's Barbaric Executions It’s time to pivot our strategy toward accepting balkanized multi state Iraq and Syria because of the insurmountable Shia - Sunni divide in Islam. The chances of Iraqi Prime Minister al-Abadi holding his Shia majority in check while Iraq mounts a Sunni Arab retaking of ISIS held Mosul just went out the window with the Saudi execution of a Shia cleric and the diplomatic breakdown between Shia Iran and the Sunni Gulf States.

Saudi Arabia's Dangerous Sectarian Game requires more than a diplomatic rebuke, rather a re-assesment of our alliance.

President of Turkey Erdogan! Stop aiding ISIS by betraying the Kurdish

The headline "Turkey’s Fight With Its Kurds Lurches Into War" is an indicator of Turkey's political dysfunction.  The Iraqi Kurdish developed an oasis of decency in the Middle East.  That Turkey resists a similar federal solution to allow their Kurdish people to self organize into its own region out a fear that it may peel off to become an independent nation will only force the issue to the point where they have to.  President of Turkey Erdogan! Stop aiding ISIS by betraying the Kurdish, our best ally against terrorism.

Then came the headline "Turkey Says Hitler Comment by President Erdogan Was Distorted" to make the case of his authoritarianism more emphatic.