Keeping them on the Plantation

“If we have Obamacare and the insurance is available to me, I will use it and be thankful for it,” Ms. Mayhew said. “But would I gladly give up my insurance today if it meant that some of the things that are in the law were not in place? Yes, I would.”

I could never understand how Mitch McConnell does it, that is convince his constituents to organize and vote against their own best interest. It appears that Senator and forthcoming Republican Senate Majority Leader depends on the ignorance voters and the influence of cronies reminiscent of the Gilded Age of 1880 - 1900. Its deja vu all over again for the G.O. P.     

Nations and Currency

Greeks Patience with Austerity Nears its Limit is a view of how a country's economy must be in the same league as its currency.  Greece is not a well developed economy. The Euro and the European Union are too expensive for its weak economy and not realizing causes them unnecessary pain and suffering.

China has Plucked the Low Hanging Fruit

In Limbo, a City in China Faces Life after Graft is a showcase article on why China needs to open up it's capitalism and press, at least it's business press.  Without a system that allows capital to flow to its most worthy projects and a press that critiques and highlights these projects China can not progress into the realm of developed economies.

Syria's Revolution Sputters

As Syria's Revolution Sputters, A Chaotic Stalemate is an example of tactics without strategy. A long term strategy to pacify the region would be to develop and nurture moderate political states that deliver services, security and adjudication efficiently so that good people relocate toward their preferred state and drain the dysfunctional  ones of subject population.  Tactics would support the functional and degrade the dysfunctional.  Otherwise degrading terror without having a moderate alternative in place makes for a super petri dish of terrorist.  

It's Always Something

Can't help laughing while reading "Germans Balk at Plan for Wind Power Lines" in today's New York Times.  Germany's power grid is based on innumeracy.  Here is a country whose auto manufacturers are recognized for superior engineering and yet whose energy policies are based on the fanciful.

Response to Joe Nocera's Editorial - "The Cuomo Cop Out"

New York's new ban on Fracking is correct. Drilling requires a good State based regulatory structure and expertise to have it done correctly with minimal environmental after affect and New York does not have one in place. At this time of low oil prices its not worthwhile to develop such a State Agency when industry has no interest in expanding drilling in New York for many years, if ever.

What has Cato got to do with it?

Mark Calabria shouldn't have been so understanding in his Nightly Newshour appearance on the Mega Bank Lobby's softening of Dodd Frank in the budget just passed.  Cato's only response should be that the most straight forward solution to too big to fail is an act that requires any financial institution that controls assets approaching two percent of the gross national product to split itself in two independent selves.  For example currently J P Morgan Chase with a control of a trillion in a twenty trillion economy needs to be split into ten separate entities and thereby let markets, not Congress, control those capable of failing.


Tuesday 30 2014 Comment

THE WARREN EFFECT The economy is growing and job growth is increasing, but that hardly means Wall Street doesn’t still have a target on its back. Perhaps the person most important to the fate of Wall Street — with the exception of Janet Yellen, the Federal Reserve chairwoman — is Elizabeth Warren. “Dodd-Frank isn’t perfect,” the senator commented in reference to Wall Street recently, talking about the post-crisis financial overhaul law. “It should have broken you into pieces.” And she is unlikely to stop.

Wow! "It should have broken you into pieces." is exactly my position.

Cuba - Its about Time

Watching Ambassador Roger Noriega on the Nightly Newshour make a case for continuing the Cuban isolation that President Obama announced today he will be relaxing.  I suggest Noriega take a trip to Vietnam and then report back to school and learn to construct an argument.  Senator Marco Rubio could use a refresher as well.

Ted Cruz Slayer of Hillary

Among the G.O.P. Hopefuls Honing Attacks Against Hillary Clinton, Ted Cruz is the perfect candidate to ignite the visceral anger of old white men in a crusade to vanquish a godless foe.  I wish him well as much as I wish the G.O.P. ill.

ISIS overeach

Terror as a weapon of war is capable subjecting many people with few soldiers. Its the ultimate method of Authoritarian conquest, but not so good over the long run.  An example is Islamic State Imposes Strict New Order in Mosul and Deprivation is the Result where the long term prospects of the caliphate's rule based on terror are not good.  That there is no alternative is an advantage that must be chipped away at by the forces of moderation, consumers.

Egypt is a Loser Bet

Another Dealbook article is An Investment Bank Revives Along with Egypt.  Its illusory.  Egypt is one hundred percent crony capitalist and doomed to a revolution.

Big Banks are Walking Dead

The budget fight is a nail biter because of lobbying efforts to modify Dodd Frank.  Who cares?  Its a huge unwieldy act doomed to be regulated by the regulate es.  The Dealbook section in the New York Times had Boutique Investment Banks Gain Prestige which is a favorable trend where the risk taking of private partnerships who use bank utility services to to advise and deal without the big bank structure.  The 2008 financial crisis was the equivalent of Detroit manufacturing millions of defective automobiles and the catharsis caused by everyone wanting their money back.  Big banks may want the freedom to sell profitable exotic instruments but what Corporate Financial Officer wants to buy them given the big bank history of self dealing and bonus entitlement?      

Wrong Department

Recent Headlines regarding the U.N. running out of money to feed Syrian refugees, ISIS claiming that the U.S. is in league with Assad and finally Secretary of Defense Hagel’s resignation leads one to believe that the wrong department is charge of our war against radical Islam.  Instead of Defense it should be the State Department.  President Obama’s funding request of $5 Billion for the war on terror should be divided between the two departments with 80% dedicated to State with a mandate to orchestrate a Marshall plan to make a viable political state out of the Sunni Refugees in Southern Syria and encourage the further consolidation of the Kurdistan state in Iraq toward North East Syria.  The purpose of the plan is to have moderate political forces that are efficient distributors of the public good with fair policing and adjudicating governments to take over once the fighting has stopped.

WIthout a viable political state at the ready to occupy a city or region it is not worthwhile to re-take it in the first place.  A most dispiriting example is the blood and treasure lost in our Marine’s house to house conquest of Fallujah in Iraq years ago only to have it all lost to an unresolved civil war. It is blatantly obvious that the military option is useless until the political option is developed. It is probably the source of the Secretary of Defense’s recent hesitancy. His military experience in Vietnam colors a less than enthusiastic promotion of firepower solutions which escalate the stakes and hardens the foe to taunt us to bring on more bombs so as to draw fresh radical recruits into the fray.  “We have met the enemy and he is us” is a Vietnam era lyric that has got to haunt Chuck Hagel.   

The U.N. Syrian refugee hunger aid program’s shortage of funds is an indication of a policy blindness to the vacuum which allows an ISIS to metastasize into an out of control radical movement.  Rather than military force the American counter to radical islam should be to nurture the refugee camps in North Jordan with massive aid organized in the same manner used by the U.N. where funds are distributed directly to refugees in debit card form so that individual families decide for themselves what goods and services they want to buy.  With this direct distribution a self formed representative state develops within the refugee camp to tax, police and govern in a relatively efficient manner and a governing body develops. The free flow of cash in the area lets Jordan create a market infrastructure to service the refugees and eventually a construction company to build a city state just across the border in South Syria. This would be a city protected from Assad’s helicopters with American air power and governed by the former Moderate Sunni Government in exile of the refugee camp.  It would be a city that swells by accepting more refugees so as to expand northward into Assad’s domain.  Let Damascus’ disaffected Sunnis vacate and migrate South, thereby leaving the regime alone with its Alawite Shia followers to eventually retreat to the West shore of Syria.

From the Northeast the U.S. should divert all resources to the independent Kurdistan region of Iraq so that it sweeps North and Westward. Turkey will have to accommodate Kurdish independence in a federated form or lose to it completely.  The reason is that the Kurds in Iraq have an efficient and sensible body politic already built and in place to govern along Turkey’s southern border well into Syria in the East.  Unfortunately for Turkey’s current anti Kurdish stance, Turkish Kurds will coalesce with their southern brethren. It can’t be helped and is part of the process where the artificial borders drawn up by European powers after World War I will be redrawn so that Syria, Iraq and possibly Turkey split off into a variety of nation states.  One consolation for Sunni Turkey is the possibility to expand into North West Syria and annex cities such as Aleppo and drive ISIS into the desert.  Iraq that is not part of Kurdistan is to be abandoned by the U.S.  Our policy of uniting Iraq will not happened and all efforts to patch it up are costly and futile.  The Shia South as well as a Middle and East Sunni regions will naturally coalesce into a their pure sectarian states to develop as well or badly as they decide.

Success in the Middle East needs to be cost effective.  The military solution is counter effective, and very costly, and so is the Defense Department’s lead in our war against terrorist who metastasisize out of failed states.  The long term least costly solution is to develop and nurture successful states which eventually displace the dysfunctional ones. It is a job for the State Department.  The analogy to the Marshall Plan’s containment of Soviet encroachment in post World War II Europe which nurtured war torn states back to health highlights the need for a similar plan for the faction torn Middle East. State building using the region’s consumers is a better path of development for self sustaining moderate nation and city states and for our and the World’s security.

Helicopter Money

When listening to a U.N. official on television describe how money for food is distributed to Syrian refugees I was surprised by how much I approve of their method.  Money through debit cards where the refugees themselves get to select the food and services they want is straight out of Milton Friedman's efficient buy playbook. That the U.N. took up such a method which eliminates so many inefficient intermediaries is brilliant and quite unexpected from such a body.

Iraq's Civil War

Sunnis Fear Permanent Displacement from Iraqi Town is an indication of the futility of U.S. involvement in Iraq. Current policy is to insist that Iraq unite to fight off ISIS.  It is a loser strategy where there is no possibility that Iraq's Sunni and Shia factions will ever put recent sectarian hard feelings behind them and unite into one Iraq.

Innumeracy Reudux

Missing its own Goals, Germany Renews Efforts to Cut Carbon Emissions keeps proving my point which is that Germany, of all countries, has a problem with numbers.  I can't stand quietly listening to some inane counter argument that Germany has solved the energy problem using green solutions such as Wind and Solar when they are actually doing the reverse by using dirty coal to handle the intermittency problem of energy sources that need a bridge between when the wind don't blow and the sun don't shine.

No "Podemos"

Spain, as other southern Mediterranean countries, is in a distressing quagmire where its young people are on life support and with no nourishment with which to enrich their souls.  It is a country ripe for an intelligent revolution lead by it’s well educated university students and recent graduates and so upon hearing of a self started political movement called “Podemos”, which translates to “We Can!”, I was optimistic that my mother country may be exploring a way out of the doldrums.  But a quick study reveals a movement morphing into the usual Latin authoritarian answer with Pablo Iglesias, its provisional leader, declaring he is of the left, but more radical than the Socialists. Apparently he considers Hugo Chavez of Venezuela a personality cult worth emulating.

A radical movement for Spain would be one that directed its energies to promote the individual rather than the collective.  Doubling down on the collective is not a way to liberate the country’s intelligent youth.  Authoritarian directives from above render those below to the status of farm animals with their physical needs taken care of but without the slaughterhouse to provide meat on the table as an expression of some meaning for a desultory life.  Why is there not a Libertarian party in Spain to counter authoritarians?  Well, there is and its called exactly that “Partido Libertario” modeled after the British Liberal Party.  It appears to have come out rather recently with a manifesto, professionally produced commercial, web page and the usual social media links. It has no traction in Spain where as our Libertarian Party’s meager one percent showing is nothing compared to a great ideological influence promoted by The Cato Institute think tank and our Anglo Common Law heritage. Unfortunately the other side are cultures with a strong Roman Empire heritage and the autocratic code of the Caesars through that of Napoleon hampering the cultivation of the individual. The P-LIB in Spain appears to have run out of fuel for the debate as witnessed by great initial activity and then nothing posted on Youtube for over a year. Sad, but not unexpected.

During this investigation I found a Liberal International organization headquartered in Rotterdam, Holland. I had no idea that Libertarians were organized throughout the world. It seems contrary to our local non world order perspective, though a great educating influence.

An Invasion Plan from Northern Jordan

Obama's counter terrorism efforts should be pouring money and support into the Syrian refugee camps in north Jordan. Jordan is currently resisting more refugees because “Foreign aid to Jordan and to the U.N. refugee agency reached only 29 percent of what is needed this year, and the rest of burden will fall onto our shoulders,” King Abdullah II is quoted saying.  This reaction has to be turned around so that Jordan accepts more and more refugees to form the Moderate Sunni Syria government in exile that will have the militia and police to reconquer and govern their villages in Syria. Without a political union such as this, there is always a vacuum left after the bombs where the roaches come back.

The Breakdown of Artificial Nation States in Syria and Iraq Begins

More than a Battle, Kobani is a Publicity War is showing the outlines of a new order in the Middle East. ISIS's misdirection where instead of taking territory of its Sunni Arab brethren they attack Kobani, a brick wall of Kurdish refugees holding on because defeat means annihilation.  Turkey has its army looking on without interfering because its Sunni preference is for ISIS, and against Shia Alawate Assad.  This preference is stirring the Kurdish, so call terrorist by the Turkish government, resistance in Turkey.  It is this idiocy on the part of the Turkish government which will cause what they most do not want to happen which is the formation of an independent Kurdish State along the borders northern Syria and Iraq and into the southern border of Turkey.

My Point Exactly

The point: It has to start with them. The best we can do is amplify. David Kilcullen, the Australian counterinsurgency expert who served with the U.S. in Iraq and Afghanistan, told me: “Just like there is a spark of life in a physical body, there has to be a spark of legitimacy and coherence in a body politic. And, if it is not there, trying to substitute for it is like putting a cadaver on a slab and harnessing a lightning bolt to it to bring it back to life. You end up with Dr. Frankenstein. You can animate a corpse and make it walk and talk, but sooner or later it’s going to go rogue. ... When you don’t have the local leadership, invading does not make things better. It makes them worse.”

Iraqi Sunnis will be Last

It is this blogger's opinion that the Kurdish of Iraq Kurdistan will be the first to form a separate moderate state and that the Moderate Sunni Government in Exile based in the North Jordan South Syrian border will be the second state and that Iraq's Sunnis will be the last because Iraq and U.S. Find Potential Sunni Allies Have Already Been Lost headline in today's New York Times.

Making Hero's Out of Our Enemy

Airstrikes Blunt ISIS, But Draw Civilian Ire is a worst nightmare outcome to the President's counteroffensive.  The Islamic State is the current indispensable service provider in Raqqa, Syria. Our bombs that deny these services without replacement make it worse. Before we degrade more we need a suitable service provider available to take over.
An even scarier headline is Top U.S. General Says He's open to Using Ground Troops to Retake Mosul which would require building to building combat in an urban setting.  1st, good luck in finding Iraqi soldiers willing to die for Iraq in this U.S. lead civil war, especially the Shia and pesh merga Kurds with no interest in sacrificing themselves in a region other than their own. Finally the corrupt Baghdad government is incapable of holding the city with capable police and other service providers and so as the tide of Americans recedes ISIS returns.

Its Economics not Politics - The Pipeline to Nowhere

Transocean Challenged by Falling Oil Prices indicated a $2.7 Billion write down of assets, ocean oil rig value, in this environment of plenty killing the investment prospect of the expensive hard to find and or extract stuff. Not a good omen for the tar sands of Canada.  On pure economics, without externalities such as costs of despoiling land and air, the high percentage of energy required to mine, heat, process and finally transport this fuel probably puts tar underwater in sub $75 a barrel oil market.*  This back of the envelope observation puts the Keystone Pipeline in jeopardy for economic reasons rather than political.  Politically it should pass because the transport of oil in pipelines is safer than in trains, but from an investor's perspective its a loser proposition based on an engine that costs more to run than what it produces and once Canada wakes up to the fact millions of acres are spoiled over a bad business proposition, it might be the pipeline to nowhere.

* The Cost of Production and Energy Returns of Oil Sands article indicates a WTI (West Texas Intermediate - Light Sweet Crude which is easiest to refine) oil price of $90-100 per barrel requirement.

A Record of Government Shrinkage that Romney Would Have Been Proud of if Elected in 2012

Government Shows Growth, After Years of Shrinking shows a Obama record of reduced Government, both Federal and State, participation in our economy so that it's at a level not seen since 1948; or before the Marshall Plan, Korean War and in the midst of the WWII wind down.

Can't Underestimate the Need to Stay on the Plantation

Mitch McConnell's re-election to the Senate from the state of Kentucky is inexplicable in terms of people voting for their economic well being.  Ignorance and prejudice appear to the winners.

Here in Connecticut it's hard to comprehend Tom Foley's very strong run as Governor against Dannel Malloy.  It was a robber baron versus a competent administrator and it's a close call.

The Horse before the Cart Syndrome

Iraqis Prepare ISIS Offensive, With U.S. Help looks way too early with the comment that police are being trained to fill in the void when ISIS is knocked out.  Ferguson Missouri is a good example of what outside Shia policing local Sunni's will be like. ISIS on the other hand has methodically executed local moderates that could of have helped with the policing.  

What's Good About the Economy

More American are Preferring the Lease to the Mortgage is a point in what's good about the economy.  The 2008 crash of Wall Street's defective production of single home mortgage back securities caused a huge mal-investment in housing.  In comparison Ireland, Spain and now it appears to have come light in China, I first learned of in a 60 Minutes expose by Leslie Stahl, where whole cities with malls apartments were built on spec without a single resident to rot away, our bubble wasn't that bad! At least the housing stock is being used.  Re-valued at lower prices yes, but least an investment with some value.  The other thing is that the market is building what there is demand for, rental housing.  With the brakes put on Banks acting like lechers, housing is going back to a normal mix of rental and ownership.  Its a good thing and not something to bemoan in the name of job creation.

Isis and Vietnam

My comment to Thomas Friedman's editorial "Isis and Vietnam" is

At least Vietnam had a government in the north that was capable, whether we agreed with it or not. Syria currently doesn't. The most effective counter to ISIS and Assad would be to develop a Sunni Moderate Government in exile based in the Jordanian refugee camps. First order of business is a political unity capable of governing, policing and directing a militia similar to what the Kurds have northern Iraq. Without a well developed moderate ally to come in the vacuum after ISIS and Assad have been degraded is a waste of effort.

Brazil on Stays the Downward Course

As an investor I retain a negative outlook on Brazil because of the re-election of Dilma Rousseff not because she is a Socialist, but because she is a poor steward of Brazil's economy.  Bill Clinton's "Its the Economy Stupid" is worth observing the world over.  You can use your economic machine to fund a social safety net, just keep the machine efficient.  Sweden is Socialist and yet admirable on how they handled their 1990's crisis with a no nonsense elimination of corporations not pulling their weight. The priority is welfare is for its citizens not corporations.  Dilma use of Petrobras to curry political favors rather than of promoting it's efficient exploitation and then taxing it for the benefit of Brazil is symptomatic of her administration and is similar to Mexico's ruinous Pemex's politicization as an example of a poor running national asset.        

Cato on Police Misconduct

The Ongoing Events in Ferguson, Missouri (Tim Lynch)

Kurdish Independence

Oil Gives Kurds a Path to Independence, and Conflict With Baghdad shows the inevitability of the break up of the old lines drawn by England and France after World War I caused by ISIS. Denying Kurdistan in Iraq its oil money can't last for long because Iraq in its current state has no hope of coalescing politically to a unified and motivated unity that can take back, police and govern the regions that ISIS has taken.  Only the Kurds show that capability and deserve our support. Let Kurdistan be the West Germany to the dysfunctional East Germany of Iraq and Syria and make the Berlin airlift into Erbil.

Shareholder's suing themselves

Shareholders, Disarmed by a Delaware Court  as reported and editorialized by Gretchen Morgenson requires an answer and I wished there had been a comment section provided, but there wasn't so I vent here:
I value corporations with management that think of shareholders as their partner and not one to be taken advantage of.  Once I see actions that appear not to be in my interest, I vote with my feet and sell the stock. Never the less I sometimes receive stockholder settlement packets with which I could receive, after hours of study, $3.00 for my efforts. I agree with restricting shareholder suits because it is like suing yourself and not understanding the winners are the law firms collecting the fees.

Connecticut's Governors Race

As a resident of Connecticut I support Democrat Dannel Malloy for two reasons. One is a disgust with Tom Foley's, the Republican opponent, cynical litany of criticism with no clue what so ever about what he would do differently.  That I don't feel like voting to add to Foley's resume of public service; he was appointed by George W. Bush as Ambassador to Ireland, no doubt after making large campaign contributions, and be a part of a vision of a Robber Baron keeping his Crony Capitalists in charge.  Secondly he doesn't get States Rights. As a Libertarian I understand that some government is required, the more local the better. Foley's support of the NRA, lead by the certifiably wacko Wayne LaPierre, is part of the Republican disease of being against everything that the other guy does. That Connecticut implemented a stricter gun control law after the Sandy Hook massacre is reasonable.  A similar law in Montana may not be, but we aren't legislating for them here in Connecticut.  So why even bring up the issue other than to be contrary?

ISIS is Breaking the Lines Drawn by Europeans Post World War I

Turkey to Let Iraqi Kurds Cross to Syria to Fight ISIS shows theTurkish government's internal conflict over its Kurdish regions.  The PKK is a separatist movement within Turkey's border that has the same aspirations as the Kurdistan region of Iraq.  They too have a pesh merga militia and yet are labeled as terrorists.  This move described in today's headline is a short term practical fight fire with fire tactic, but strategically Turkey had better get their arms around the idea allowing the Kurdish people to have a independent state within or without because ISIS is the genie  let out of the lantern breaking the old borderlines apart.

Keeping Faith in Democracy

Watching Marilynne Robinson on Bill Moyer's "Keeping Faith in Democracy" I was amused by her criticism of the current education system's emphasis on producing little automatons suitable for industry versus the free spirited education she enjoyed in her youth that lead her to be a writer.  The biggest difference today is that we have a federal Department of Education dictating standards.  Thank god we still have private schools and home schooling as a growing alternative.

  

FBI Director James Comey

I was impressed with his first interview on Sixty Minutes with Scott Pelley.  Director Comey struck me as intelligent and truthful.  Then the following week he rants about encryption implemented by Apple as a danger to law enforcement's ability to solve urgent cases in the moment.  After reading the following piece regarding his mis-statements of law enforcement solving heinous crimes with the use of smart phone data, I now know he is no better than J Edgar Hoover.

The FBI Director's Evidence Against Encryption is Pathetic 

Economic Well Being Award

While perusing the New York Times today I encountered the following advertisement by the Bay Ridge United Methodist Church:

The Economic Well Being Award

The comparisons are interesting in that contradicts two assumptions:

1)  The government is getting bigger.  It appears that it is not.  There are 1.1 million fewer government workers on the payroll in the latest period, this despite a considerable population increase.

2)  Higher tax rates automatically mean less economic growth.  The first period had a  marginal income tax rate of 70% and the second half that rate yet with poorer result.

I haven't changed my stripes of "More Freedom, Less Government" but detest shouting matches, especially between moronic know nothings.  

Brick by Brick

C.I.A. Study Finds Covert Aid to Rebels Rarely Works is no surprise.  "It's a very mixed history," said Loch K Johnson, a Professor of public and international affairs at the University of Georgia and an intelligence expert. "You need some really good, loyal people on the ground ready to fight."  Currently in the Iraq and Syria counter terrorism conflict the only really good people on the ground ready to fight is the pesh merga of the Kurdish State in Iraq, Kurdistan. This is a political entity that has an honest government providing police and security to a people with a desire for independence.  This type of unity and purpose is what is needed as a moderate force in Syria.

Iraq will break apart.  Kurdistan is where our military aid will eventually go as our assistance in the rest of Iraq fuels the civil war between Shia and Sunni.  As we focus on the Kurds expect them to slowly consolidate westward in northern Iraq into Syria where it will join up with the P.K.K., the Turkish Kurds working for independence in Turkey and who currently are experiencing containment efforts by the Turkish military that will fuel a war of separation from Turkey along the the northern border of Syria.  That is unless Turkey relents and allows a Kurdistan State to develop within the lines as the one in Iraq. It appears that the P.K.K. might have the semblance of an ally with political wherewithal to receive assistance and take back Territory from ISIS and then govern northern Kurdish regions of Syria.

Southern Syria requires a moderate Sunni political entity to develop in Jordan's refugee camps before any thought of of assistance can be contemplated. Think of the years of build up in England before the Normandy invasion, except the costs will be insignificant in comparison to that effort and all other recent ones we have had in the region.              

My problem with Cato's Fiscal Policy Report on Governors

Fiscal Policy Report on Governors

The report makes the comparison between Indiana a low taxing state with a growing economy to Illinois' high tax, high debt burden and so so economic growth as proof that a state's low taxes makes for economic growth.  As a libertarian I understand that money in private hands spends and invests more efficiently than government but obviously lower taxes are not the only requirement for economic growth or how else do you explain high tax and expense states such as California and New York?  California gets a failing mark in this report yet Jerry Brown raised taxes, reduced services and has strong growth and a budget in big (5 Billion big) surplus in comparison Brownback's Kansas which has lower taxes and increasing debt gets an A+.  I expect more intellectual rigor from Cato despite it being a short presentation,  or are we just selling soap here?    

ISIS's drive to Empire is a Weakness

"Slaughter is Feared as ISIS Nears Turkish Border"  is a depressing headline in today's paper but ISIS is biting off more than it can chew when it conquers a people who do not have even a remote affinity for their vision. They will need police power and counter insurgency defenses if they were to over run the Syrian Kurdish town of Kaboni.  They don't have the manpower.  Thanks to ISIS the Kurdish refugees in Turkey just to the north will form the political means to reconquer, police and govern the area despite Turkey's resistance to Kurdish independence.

The Secret Service

The Secret Service was originally started by Abraham Lincoln, ironically on the day he was shot, to deal with counterfeit currency. As is usual for bureaucracies their duties expanded to the protection of the President after McKinley was assassinated in 1901 and for some unknown jockeying of power reason took on the Bureau of Alcohol, Firearms and Tobacco in later years as well.  Apparently the AFT was peeled away from the Secret Service recently, why wasn't their original mandate to protect the financial system rationalized away from the as well? Their executive protection mandate is sufficient.  Why spread the Secret Service thin on issues that other agencies are more attuned to and better equipped to handle?    

The Constancy of Embicility

"Ingenuity could hardly have invented a system less advantageous for the government and people who maintained it. The government lost its revenue, the shipping lost much of its freight, the people paid double prices on imports and received half prices for their produce: industry was checked, speculation and fraud stimulated." 1

1 History of the United States 1809-17, Henry Adams, Chapter: Legislative Impotence 1809-1810

What if there is no Iraqi Unity Government?

Dear Mr. President:

So of much of your war against ISIS is dependent on a unity government in Iraq forming an army in which it's soldiers fight for a unified Iraq. What is plan B in the likely case that it doesn't happen?

Comment on Israel - Palestine Impasse

It is not possible to support either side of a conflict lead by those insistent on reaching Armageddon.

Greg from Lyon, France commented on Thomas Friedman's "Order and Disorder, Part 4" with the following comment with which I agree wholeheartedly.

You can eradicate people. You can eradicate buildings and infrastructure. BUT you can never eradicate an injustice. 

Injustices committed by USrael in the Middle East will not be "contained" in the long term and continued attempts to contain will be very expensive of money and blood. A process of injustice recognition and slow, but sure, reconciliation is the only long term solution.

Like a Global Education fund would have stopped ISIS - Not !

Here is my comment to today's Nicholas Kristoff editorial

What ISIS Could Teach the West

If Obama had gotten the 2 billion dollars for a global for education fund it would have had a zero result within a state that is not interested in distributing an economic good efficiently and fairly. Fighting Assad and ISIS requires developing fair governments to replace them. The refugee camps in Jordan and Turkey have the raw material to make fair governing units which can slowly displace extremist with expanding perimeters aided by outside military help while the inside is policed and educated fairly.

Pesh Merga will break into Syria

"Kurds in Iraq's North Make Gains Against ISIS" puts the pesh merga, Kurdistan's militia, right at Iraq's North West border with Syria.  How long will it take before they cross the border to protect their Kurdish cousins in Northern Syria?  How long will it take for Turkish Kurds to organize with their Syrian brothers in refugee camps north of Syria?

Xi Jinping - After your betrayal, good luck with Taiwan

"Told to End Protests, Organizers in Hong Kong vow to Expand Them" which could end badly, especially for any long term plan of unifying China and Taiwan.

Innumerates of the World, Unite

The People’s Climate March celebrated recently in New York City was a joyous union of many disparate views on the environment and a need to do something.  To do what is not clear nor the proper venue to effect change.  For the movement to succeed it must coalesce around two propositions.  One is that CO2 in the atmosphere is rising and two that any plan to reduce it meet a rigorous mathematical proof.

A video presentation on Reason TV by Matt Ridley showed a satellite photo of the Caribbean Island with two countries, Haiti and The Dominican Republic.  From the sky one country appeared brown and barren and the other lush and green.  One country is so poor that its only fuel is wood and the other country is rich enough to subsidize propane gas to be used as a fuel for cooking to save its forests.  Many in the Climate March aspire to a life in a simple biofuel consuming economy, but unfortunately for them, Haiti is a good example of what you get from a backward system that is very little affected by petroleum, globalisation and corporate greed.

The contrast between Haiti and The Dominican Republic also indicates how ill suited the United Nations is as a forum for deciding issues on climate.  Imagine a world wide solution to climate change mandating less use of coal and petroleum forcing more poor people to forage in the woods for fuel.  Climate Marchers would feel slighted if the energy deprived of the world accused them of the royal quip “let them cook with dung.”  In the quest for reducing CO2 in our atmosphere, first and foremost, keep the world’s poor countries out of the supposed solution.  They are an insignificant part of the carbon problem yet a global response would affect them the most.  Counterintuitively the world’s rich democracies with governments responsive to the will of its people for a clean and safe environment and with economies that can transform themselves with market messaging are cleaning up.

If reducing carbon in our atmosphere is the problem to be solved, then biofuels have to be discarded as a solution since a truly rigorous energy audit shows that its commercialisation increases CO2 in the air as well as use of petroleum assets. Unless, ostrichlike, you keep your head in the sand  about the diesel fuel used to cultivate, process and transport the biomass turned to fuel.  The other issue with biomass is that its cultivation competes for the farmland to feed the world.  It’s grotesque to put an automobile in the same line as the poor at the local food pantry.  Finally more farmland for cars means less rain forest in the world storing carbon and cleaning our air.  All and all bio appears not to be an answer to CO2 reduction and should not be subsidized as ethanol is today in the U.S.

Sun and wind energy have strong support as renewable energy sources because they are early in their development and have an expectation of reduced costs as the technology gets better.  Unfortunately these two sources of energy have low yield to acreage,  in other words they both require a lot of area to generate little power.  Secondly the intermittency character as described by Professor Paul Joskow of MIT of on and off production when the wind don’t blow and the sun don’t shine requires backup systems that counter the goal of CO2 reduction. Solar on roofs and windows is a positive source that uses the acreage of buildings already in place and it is a great supplement for peak air conditioning loads when the sun is out and is a worthy of the subsidy it currently has.  A solar farm out in the desert is less compelling economically when considering intermittency and distance.  Even less compelling are windmill farms.  Recently Germany has been receiving good press regarding their full on effort to convert to solar and wind,  but what is not talked about is that cheap coal powered utilities used to provide energy at night and when the wind is becalmed makes a well meaning green policy into a costly polluter with Germany slipping back on its goal of reducing CO2 in the atmosphere.  So why the reliance on dirty coal to cover intermittency?  A possible answer is the political solution of subsidizing green energy on the backs of utilities with a large asset base of traditional power sources. This unexpected cost has created real losses to utility share and bond holders but which are papered over by uninterested deniers of the numbers.  Under such a loser circumstance those forced to provide the intermittent power choose to do so as cheaply possible and dam the pollution emitted.  The answer for these losses requires a market based solution that correctly prices power according to supply and demand and would make wind farms uneconomic, which is okay because the world can only stand so much of this acreage hungry system before NIMBA (not in my backyard) syndrome stops its growth. Think of the resistance of locating wind farms off the coast of Cape Cod which was probably resisted by some who marched in New York.

Hydropower is also an acreage hungry source that reached its tipping point recently as ecologist reassess what damming rivers does to the ecosystem.  Geothermal currently is too insignificant to consider so in the end we have to consider the hateful to climate marchers, nuclear energy.  Unfortunately for them nuclear has the best power to acreage yield and emits no CO2.   Curiously there was a Climate March in Paris as well.  This in a country that embraced nuclear full on and is a leader in low carbon emissions.  It is an elitist bet promoted by bureaucrat and engineering graduates of France’s famous Grande Ecoles whereby they went all in.  The result is that France is clean and beautiful and with travel in their electric powered TGV fast trains a vision of a future with concentrated energy efficient cities surrounded by pristine farms, forests and mountains.  Contrast France’s calculation with Germany which let its green movement chaotically create policies that increase CO2 emissions, energy costs and vulnerability to petroleum energy despots and whose political slogan appears to be:  “Innumerates of the World, Unite.”

Kurdish Independence.

"Turkey inching Toward Alliance with U.S. in Syria Conflict" highlights Turkey's conflict with the Kurdish people.  Kurd's are fleeing northern Syria into the arms of their Turkish brethren. Both Turkey and Iran have large Kurdish populations who are seeking independence.  The Iraqi unity government is doomed to fail because of the beyond repair split between Shia and Sunni fostered by Maliki's politicization of the Iraqi Army.  Expect the independence of the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Also expect its expansion northward. Turkey had better learn to accept an eventual accommodation as a consequence of degrading ISIS.

GOP Dysfunction on Immigration and what Latinos can do about it

"Jeb Bush Returns to the Fray and Finds Going Rough" is a beaut just for the skeptical look of Thom Tillis, North Carolina' Republican candidate for the Senate, who Jeb is campaigning for while educating his party on the need for immigration reform.  Its apparent that the 2014 midterm election will not turn on this issue and Latinos feel very left out as the President and Democrats in general assume their support and put the issue on the back burner.

If Latinos have any political sense they should target Representative Kevin McCarthy of California's 23rd Congressional district which has a 35% Hispanic constituency.  Knocking out the second Majority Leader in Congress in a matter of months ought to rock the GOP off its perch so they confront the issue more magnanimously no matter how the Senate goes this midterm.

Refugees are the Solution to ISIS and Assad

In the northern Syria the Kurdish along the Turkish border are cascading across the border seeking asylum from ISIS.  Turkey ought to let them coalesce with their Kurdistan, Iraq brethren. That in combination with building a Sunni moderate government in exile in Jordan is the long term solution where the swamp is drained of a moderate populace leaving a wasteland for ISIS and Assad to rule allowing moderates to develop a toehold and with the help of the west protecting the expanding perimeter, degrade and finally extinguish them.

Amen

Snap out of it!

Proposal for a New Fed Window

The tools that the Federal Reserve Bank has to manage the supply and cost of money have proved to be weak during this time of the Great Recession where there is too much saving and  interest rates are at practically zero.  After years of work restarting the economic flame we are beginning to see it expand and grow so that we can reduce the amount of kindling provided by the bond buying program called “quantitative easing” and consider restricting some air flow to the flame with  increased interest rates in the coming year.  Janet Yellen, Chairman of The Federal Reserve Bank, is now dancing with the concern over distortions to the financial system these many years of zero yield creates with the will not to blow out the tenuous flame that the economy has achieved with an upward movement of interest rates.  Employment is a mandate given to the Federal Reserve Bank by the Congress where there has been no real movement by the Fed  because it has no arrow or idea of one. The other tool for economic management is Congress voting for a stimulus or a significant deficit. The problem is that Washington is always months late, billions short and unfocused. How can we get some of this stimulus tool into the Fed’s quivir?

As we work our way out of the Great Recession, albeit slowly and with spotty result, there are many decrying the wasted opportunity to build and rebuild America’s infrastructure at a time when there is slack in our productive capacity. While reading in the New York Times “E.P.A. Cuts Size of Loan New York Sought for Tappan Zee Bridge” and Martin Wolf’s The Shifts and The Shocks the thought occurred that possibly there is a bond buying variant of former Chairman Ben Bernanke’s quantitative easing program that the Fed could develop for it’s jobs mandate. Wolf’s conclusion is that the austerity policies as practiced by the Euro Zone is a prescription for a decades long depression in Southern Europe.  Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman’s economic prescription of a strong stimulus is correct and unfortunately The Congress was incapable of passing the blowtorch with sufficient heat needed to ignite the fuel that quantitative easing provided.  What if the Federal Reserve had a municipal bond buying facility that would fund projects it determines are for a productive investment and at a time needed to stimulate the economy?

Currently the Federal Reserve maintains a federal funds window with which banks use to cover their liquidity needs in exchange for acceptable collateral.  The system has proved to be useful in the maintenance of a well operating economy. The proposed Municipal Window of First Resort could prove to be a special instrument that the Fed would use as an accelerator to stimulate the economy and create jobs when it deems it necessary.  A proposal to issue bonds for a project, such as the rebuilding of the Tappan Zee Bridge, is examined by the Fed directly and given a quick yeah or neah in a similar manner that the Supreme Court decides what cases to adjudicate. A go decision funds the project quickly and economically while a neah vote puts the project through the usual commercial bank channels. When the Fed decides a stimulus is needed it lets the word out it is looking for good projects to fund.  Those state legislatures with an engaged public may have many shovel ready projects to offer the Fed for economical funding. Those who don’t, won’t.

At times First Resort accepts many projects to improve our roads, ports and rail services as a means to increase economic activity and job creation and when the economy gets overheated the Fed makes its disinterest in funding more projects known and leaves it to commercial banks to fund or not.  Under this system the Fed could maintain the normal four to six percent interest rate economy in general and yet buy the full issuance of projects at zero or even, and this requires a turn in thinking, below zero subsidy rates where the Fed actually pays for the port, road or rail facility in question!  It would not be a two tier market because by buying the full issuance there is no market, just an event.  Nor is there a right that a properly constructed and tested project has to be approved.  These unique funding events are to be at the whim of the Federal Reserve Bank when using its judgment on how best to manage the economy and thereby make it more responsive.

A Brick by Brick Reconstruction of Syria

Ahmad Samih Khalidi’s editorial “To Crush ISIS, Make a Deal With Assad” requires a realpolitik answer to the Faustian proposition he makes.  Principally what good would any arrangement with Bashar al-Assad bring?  Certainly not as a policing force as he proves his ineffectiveness to bring order with desperate use of chemical and barrel bombs on his citizens.  These indiscriminate attacks make enemies out of Sunni moderates wishing for some semblance of law and order and out of this witches brew a small band of vicious operators takes over with a combination of fearsome actions and intelligent takings of funds and arms.  A deal made with Assad would be welcomed by ISIS  to paint the U.S. with the devil’s brush.

Assad can’t police Syria nor can his military conquer or retain territory, as proved by the recent loss of a Syrian Air Force base to ISIS in the north just a few weeks ago and with Damascus about to fall last year Iran had to bring their proxy, Hezbollah, to come to his aid. Clearly Assad adds nothing to the military equation.

Finally there is the usual duplicitous nature of most actors in the Middle East where a realignment of convenience is considered every other day.  Assad is in pure survival mode and will do anything to prolong his rule.  Eventually any coalition that uses Assad has to deal with his certain betrayal.

So what is to be done in Syria?  First take a deep breath and think about what is needed, which is a political entity that can govern with some semblance of law and order. Lashing out at ISIS without a moderate effective force to fill the void is a prescription for perpetual chaos.  An armchair analysis shows a huge Syrian refugee camp in Jordan causing economic and political consternation in that country.  Why not convert a  problem into an asset by focusing on these camps as the base of a moderate Sunni Syrian government in exile?  Fund the development of this group into a viable political entity with a police and militia.  Take several years to expand the camps to accept refugees that are now fleeing to Europe and elsewhere and let a popular and motivated government develop so that it has some semblance of unity similar, albeit much less mature, to what the Kurds have in Iraq. This Syrian government in exile eventually enters the southern border with the assistance of the Jordanian Army and U. S. air power and establishes a toehold and becomes the moderate Sunni Republic of Syria.

With protection in the air from Assad’s easily neutralized forces the repatriated can grow and police themselves.  As the migration of Sunni moderates flow southward the Republic expands and slowly squeezes Assad to his Alawite stronghold in the middle west.  Eventually the Republic expands northeastward securing the Iraqi border and with good luck and effort finally takes over a degraded ISIS.  This whole operation will require years and patience. But the slow deliberate brick by brick building of a sane ally should be the most enduring and one not easily blown down by the region’s mercurial storms.

Scotland Votes No Thanks

Bully for the U. K. Yes I mean it, good for them and as for my Catalan cousins in Spain, don't even think of it.  But on the other hand, Spain should consider getting out of the Euro zone forthwith, that is unless they believe 25% unemployment, outward migration of their best and brightest and a stagnant economy is a good thing. The other factor to consider is that doing it first is better, just like in a bank run; the first to withdraw gets his money and the the later ones may not.

Industry's Tiresome response to Carbon Pricing

Errors and Emissions

My response to Paul Krugman's editorial in today's New York Times:

Krugman is absolutely right about the tiresome response from industry that real carbon pricing will slow economic growth. We had this argument twenty years ago when getting rid of acid rain. I don't see any less industry today because some added costs were put on to eliminate acid from smokestack emissions and on the other hand I do see the green having come back to trees in Vermont mountains.

New Economic Order

"EPA Cuts Size of Loan on Tappan Zee Bridge" brings a thought that needs fleshing out as I read Martin Wolf's The Shifts and the Shocks. I believe that Ben Bernanke's Fed bond buying spree has been effective and that it should continue in the years ahead even as interest rates are pushed up.  The bonds to be bought are newly issued municipal bonds such as the one for the Tappan Zee Bridge, but these new issues are sold exclusively to the Fed at one quarter of one percent coupon rates that subsidize needed infrastructure investment for ports, roads and rail  and thus help the economy and fulfill the Fed's mandate to increase employment.  

Response to Crush ISIS, Make a Deal with Assad

Crush ISIS, Make a Deal with Assad

There is no effective help that Assad can provide. His police actions put the ingredients together for the witches brew that formed ISIS proving that not only is he the devil but incompetent as his indiscriminate use of chemical and barrel bombs attacks as means of policing his citizens proves. His military lost a Northern outpost to ISIS just a few weeks ago because it is useless. Just ask why Iran had to ask Hezbollah in Lebanon to help him out last year. Working with Assad has negative real consequences without need of listing the moral objections as well.

What is the Plan?

Thomas Friedman's editorial "Obama's Strategy for Fighting ISIS" in today's New York Times requires that the administration do some out of the box thinking.  First and foremost is to get comfortable with the idea that Syria is to be split up.  Use the Sunni refugee's in Jordan as the basis of a new moderate government in Exile.  After some preparation and with the help of a combined Jordanian Army and U. S. Air Force this new political entity invades southern Syria and defends and polices the area.  Hopefully this new entity develops in a positive way so that it could be the basis of a local Syrian force similar to the pesh merga in Kurdistan to displace Assad back to his Alawite region and then begin the slow slog northward to counter ISIS.  In the meantime U.S. Air power should knock out the oil fields in the north funding ISIS's operations.

The Bum's rush

A caller to an NPR program I was listening to yesterday that included Joyce Kearns Goodwin mentioned how Truman and Johnson were both was rushed into their wars by a confident military and how Eisenhower and Kennedy distrusted military solutions enough to avoid Armageddon.  I rather like Obama's cool approach.  Sure he took a chance with the military when hunting down Osama Bin Laden but otherwise he seems to know when they are blowing smoke up his ass.

Fundamentalist

Paul Krugman's "The Inflation Cult" editorial in the New York Times hints at a problem with all fundamentalist; their complete inability to take in contrary evidence. Medicine tests and confirms Darwin's theory of evolution every day.  Economics is not getting the same sort of continual and correct feedback from the likes of Rick Santelli, Peter Schiff and Ludwig von Mises.  Milton Friedman on the other hand was open to refining economic theory so that it would explain reality correctly.

Duplicitous

Thomas Friedman's editorial "Ready, Aim, Fire, Not Fire" mentioned "duplicitous," a really important descriptor for the Middle East when forming alliances.

A GOP House and a Democrat Senate

The Upshot's "Why Democrats Can't Win the House" brings up the point that urban areas in very red states are usually Democrat and progressive.   Since these urban areas have a high concentration of such voter that Congressional election wastes their votes while Senate votes are state wide and give the Senate more balance. This deadlock that this dynamic creates in Washington is a good.  Repeated below is this blog's June 25 2013 posting

Local Officials Lead Revolution to Make America

An essential element to Libertarianism is to bring decision making to as local a level as possible. I have blogged previously that the Amish are as about as an ideal example of a local self reliant community as there can be.

Watched PBS News Hour's interview with the authors of  The Metropolitan Revolution which appears to me to be an anti federalist love letter to local control and initiative.  If this is the result of Washington political deadlock and sequestration,  then I love it.

The Metropolitan Revolution

GOP Impoverishes not Enriches

John Heilemann on Charlie Rose mentioned Congressman Paul Ryan as having a compelling GOP message in development so that I watched his CPAC presentation from last spring where I failed to see anything to save the Republican party from disappointment this fall and obliteration in 2016; specifically because their focus on austerity will be contrasted by good economic news.
Surprise: Per Capita Medicare Spending is Falling as reported in The New Times' Upshot is part of the lie that Republicans are good stewards of our economy. How will it play if it is Hillary Clinton up against Paul Ryan in 2016 when that October the Treasury declares the first budget surplus since the Bill Clinton administration. As I recall, Clinton increased taxes and brought forth a huge economic boom and tax receipts paying off the national debt at to some on Wall Street was at an alarming rate (Oh my God we are going to run out of bonds to sell) ! Republicans, on the other hand, have George W. Bush cutting taxes and starting a war, a devastating economic combination which brought us The Great Recession. It appears that a hand off will take place between one competent, thoughtful and decisive Democrat in President Obama to another, Hillary, while the GOP is left to whine.

Playing Nice to Iran

It was reported last week that U.S. air strikes in Iraq were done in coordination with anti-American Iran backed Shia militias.  Not a surprise.  In the fight against ISIS these friendships of convenience between those with a common enemy realign and Obama should use it to come to an agreement in the Nuclear negotiations currently ongoing with Iran, but in no way does this realignment mean that there is a chance for Iraq to come out of this as a unified country.

Rules of Civilization

Tarnishing a Reputation as Storied Warriors reports on the weakness of pesh merga forces resisting the ISIS assault last month on the territorial capital of Erbil in Iraq. It's weakness that is being identified and dealt with by the Kurds and is an example of the resilient type of ally we require on the ground in the middle east. Never the less, geopolitical chess players thinking that such a local ally would be useful in expanding the rule of civilization much beyond the borders of Kurdistan in Iraq would be wrong in thinking that their fight for statehood can be converted to one of empire building.  

What is it about John McCain?

Senators John McCain and Lyndsay Graham's New York Times Op Ed of the 29th of August "Stop Dithering and Confront ISIS" has a rather pointless "just do something" sense to it that belies the fact that McCain was a prisoner of war in a conflict based on the same sentiment. 

One again I re-iterate that Obama will go down in history as a great president  for resisting emotional appeals to do something in a hasty irrational manner.  There is no doubt that we have the military power to overwhelm ISIS, but without a sane and forceful local ally, such as the Kurds in Iraq, there is nothing to fill the power vacuum that our conquering creates and filling that void is 95% of the job!  Putting together an artificial  coalition isn't good enough.  You need a politically mature group and a well motivated militia to collaborate with in Syria.  Until your ally's grunts on the ground are willing to die for their movement, like ISIS fighters are willing to do, there is no sustainable end game.  Every other option ends with helicopters evacuating personnel from the top of our embassy.

Obama Again Tips the Scales Toward Caution on Syria

This video clip linked below from Obama's press conference yesterday is what makes him a great President, which is his unwillingness to commit our blood and treasure to a conflict without a sane and forceful ally on the ground. Syria, unlike Iraq, has no well developed political entity with a motivated militia, like the Kurds, that we can work with on the ground to police and govern after the initial assault and conquest.  Looking over Secretary of State John Kerry's video clip of last August where he drew the line in the sand that Assad crossed, one can observe all the emotional reasons that draw us to act and makes Obama's restraint all the more great and faithful to our Constitution.

Obama Again Tips the Scales Toward Caution on Syria 

ISIS Tightens Its Grip With Seizure of Air Base in Syria

"Recent military advances by ISIS in northern and eastern Syria have highlighted the lack of local military forces that can effectively battle the group, which President Obama last week called a “cancer” that must be eradicated from the Middle East."

Unlike in Iraq where there is a sane well organized opposition on the ground like the pesh merga Kurdish forces; it appears that Assad, distasteful as he may be requires help to contain ISIS because he is not up to it.  I believe that the Iran came to same conclusion when deciding to put Hezbollah fighters from Lebanon to help him out earlier this year. And so there you have it, in order to fight ISIS Obama is going to have to make nice to Iran and let Iran help Assad contain ISIS with their proxy ISIS, Hezbollah. Welcome to the middle east reality

U.S. General Says Raiding Syria Is Key to Halting ISIS

Airstrikes in Iraq Are Seen as Inadequate to Defeat a Foe That Crosses Borders is the start of a mindless escalation equivalent to Nixon's airstrikes into Cambodia during Vietnam war.  If Obama wants to fight ISIS in Syria he has to make a deal with the devil.  He needs Assad, Iran and Hezbolla to assist on the ground with our air support otherwise bombing Syria is useless.

Sane and Forceful

"Will the Ends, Will the Means" editorial by Thomas Friedman with the following comment from me:

Right on. It is apparent with the recent retaking of the Mosul Dam in Iraq where pesh merga Kurdish forces combined with U. S. Air Power that we are powerless to will an outcome without a sane political ally that effectively distributes economic as well as military aid such as found in Kurdistan. The neocon blowhards apparently do not understand there is no similar sane and forceful actor in Syria with which we can work with.

The U.S. needs sane actors in the Middle East

“Thus far, Mr. Obama’s military strategy in Iraq has greatly favored the Kurds over the Iraqi government, with all the airstrikes taking place in northern Iraq in general and in the Kurdish areas of Mount Sinjar, Erbil and Mosul in particular. One reason, defense officials said, is that military assessment teams sent to Iraq to gauge whether the Iraqi security forces are capable of countering ISIS sent back reports specifying which units could make the most of American help — in the form of airstrikes — and which units were lost causes.

The American assessment teams quickly identified Kurdish pesh merga fighters as capable of pushing back the Sunni militants if given help, defense officials said. In addition, certain Iraq commando units — including those that worked with the Kurdish fighters to take back the Mosul Dam — also received good reports from the assessment teams.”

The Kurdish are a sane actor in the Middle East.  Keep that in mind the next time a military blowhard like John McCain or even Hillary Clinton talks about having missed out in Syria.  Aid to any element in Syria would have leaked out to the wrong players just like our our armoured personnel carriers left to the Iraqi army were abandoned by terrified troops to be picked up by ISIS and used against them. Without a well developed and cohesive political structure such as within Iraq’s Kurdistan region there is nothing for us to work with.

The Kurds have aspirations for a nation state of their own.  There is no possibility of using their resources to unify Iraq in the same manner as this past weekend’s routing of ISIS at the Mosul Dam.  It’s doubtful that they would be interested in expanding their territory very much into Arab, whether Shia or Sunni, sections of Iraq for them to police and protect.

What is the Cost of War?

Paul Krugman's editorial in the New York Times makes the observation "that modern war is very, very expensive. For example, by any estimate the eventual costs (including things like veterans’ care) of the Iraq war will end up being well over $1 trillion, that is, many times Iraq’s entire G.D.P." One trillion is a gross underestimate. Which brings me to a question. What is the cost of war?  Except for World War II's positive effect for the American economy, there is no other instance in the past century where a war was beneficial. Vietnam caused the decade long recession of the 1970's and W's unilateral invasion of Iraq had much to do with the Great Recession.  Wars which do not develop future markets are failed investments that an economy absorbs with great pain. 

Iraq's last Chance

Iraq is too broken to be turned around so that Mr. Khedery's assessment of "ultimately no" is correct. Given this conclusion, we have no choice but to salvage what is good in the region and support the Kurdish quest for an independent state. They are the only people with a cohesive ideal and leadership that properly distributes economic and military aid for maximum benefit. Baghdad on the other hand is in an unfortunate and poisonous state where everyone is looking out for their own. Outside assistance to such a state is counter productive. We have to leave the rest of Iraq alone.

Syria does not have an Island of Sanity

"Facing Both ISIS and Army, Syrian Rebels Fear Demise is Near" is not a case of Obama's ineffectiveness.  The Syrian Rebels facing extinction in Aleppo, Syria were never capable, unlike the Kurds in Kurdistan, Iraq, of receiving economic and military aid so that it wouldn't leak out and be used against them.

There is No Going Back to How it Was

“In a Town Hollowed Out by Jihadists, There is No Going Back to How it Was” New York Times article by Azam Ahmed is prophetic for both Syria and Iraq in the following sense: What motivates an Army to fight?  Looking at the map it appears that the town of Mahmour in Iraq that was just liberated from ISIS by the Kurds’ Pesh Merga militia is not in Kurdistan.  Unless the Kurds plan on expanding their region for their people, it is difficult to see their motivation for remaining. So now what?

The Kurds are the only cohesive group in the middle east with a common aspiration for self rule with a well developed regional government and militia, a Switzerland in the middle of a warring Europe.  They deserve our full support because they can use it effectively to maintain their island of stability where economic and military aid goes to where it will do the most good because of their dream for a nation state.  What is Baghdad’s dream?  It is difficult to imagine a Shia Militia from the south invading the north to reclaim and police Mosul and the Tigris river from ISIS. But even if it was mounted and succeeded, what would be the militia’s motivation for staying and policing an openly hostile Sunnis population?  Think of it as an occupying force similar to the white police in Ferguson, Missouri maintaining law and order with armored vehicles against a black population.

Too many nuclear weapons

John Oliver's "Last Week Tonight" Nuclear Weapons spot was dead on brilliant, funny and ultimately scary. Command and Control describes incidents in detail, but who knew about the drunkards and morons in charge of these weapons?  Humanity is playing a form of Russian Roulette.

Let's not add to Egypt's arsenal

Was my blog post of 17 July. Today in the New York Times  article on the Jhadist routing the Kurds we see "even the pesh merga are not up to the fight with ISIS. Kurdish officials have complained of a lack of ammunition and begged American diplomats for more weapons. But the United States, so far, has held off on significant arms shipments to the Kurds, fearing that it could undermine the central government in Baghdad. Now, the Kurds have been battling a group of militants from ISIS who are using powerful American weapons they took from the battlefield, left by the Iraqi Army. “They are literally outgunned by an ISIS that is fighting with hundreds of millions of dollars of U.S. military equipment seized from the Iraqi Army who abandoned it,” Mr. Khedery said."

1st observation is that there must be some Bathist Sunni elements teaching ISIS how to use these armored carriers

2nd what will keep these same weapons we supply Egypt from being turned around and used against us when General Sisi's regime blows up?

Iraq Agrees to Help Kurds Battle Sunni Extremists

Air force is useless in a battle against a rebel terrorist group like ISIS.  The Kurds need money and arms to supply their home grown "Pesh Merga" security force with a cohesive motive force that is leagues ahead of Baghdad's politicized army.  Forget a unified Iraq and let the Kurds support themselves with sale of oil going directly to them.

In Libya, Parliament Convenes Amid Battles

This article in today's New York Times brings a thought.  Sisi of Egypt invades to grab oil revenue and becalm fundamental Islamists!  Its a classic authoritarian move.

British Citizens Flee Tripoli on Ship as 25 Libyans Are Reportedly Killed in Fighting

Libya, another country drawn up by Europeans,  is breaking apart as well.

Sunni Extremists in Iraq Seize 3 Towns From Kurds and Threaten Major Dam

"The Kurds, who have been longtime American allies, recently asked for military assistance from the United States to fight ISIS, American officials, determined to keep Iraq together as one country are reluctant" without Baghdad's approval. Seeing as how the Kurds are the only ones capable of using American intelligence and weaponry effectively in restraining ISIS makes it the usual throw our friends under the bus for a hopeless cause type move we are famous for.  Iraq is broken so support the Kurds because they are the sane ones in Iraq right now while the Shia and Sunnis are in a blood feud that we can not control.

When the Wind Don't Blow and the Sun Don't Shine

“The Economist’s” Buttonwood invented a new term called the DOG (Discount for Obnoxious Government) Factor and referred to Vladimir Putin’s capricious trampling of property rights and the rule of law as costing Russia approximately One Trillion Dollars in market value and creating a huge drag on its economy.  Noxious decisions are a drag on all economies and not just for Iran or Argentina mentioned as well in the editorial article. To stay away from partisan politics here in the U.S. by using our insane corporate tax policy that incentivises our companies to place capital abroad as an example of a noxious drag on our economy, let us instead examine Germany’s energy policy as an example.  That Germany counters its lower carbon emissions policy as well as devalues the country’s stock makes the decision doubly incomprehensible.

The monkey wrench to the system is Chancellor Angela Merkel’s emotional decision to shut down Germany’s nuclear power plants by 2020.  A decision that belies the country’s reputation for excellent engineering logic and execution.  That a government with such a talented population could come to such a hasty decision is difficult to comprehend inspite of the Fukushima nuclear disaster and Japan’s equally large engineering  talent. The breakdown in logic is that shutting down nuclear energy increases Germany’s carbon emissions and makes the country more beholden to carbon rich despots such as Russia’s Vladimir Putin.

Sun and Wind can not provide Germany’s energy needs.  Paul Joskow of MIT pointed out the costs of intermittency, the cost of on and off production when the wind don’t blow and the sun don’t shine. These costs are huge, currently not calculated and require even more investment in gathering and storing such energy. Ultimately though, the biggest problem with sun and wind energy is that it is too dispersed.  For a world that wants to preserve its habitat with great swathes of natural parkland and concentrate populations in city islands, you need concentrated energy, nuclear being the best example.  Concentrated so that forests are not mowed down to grow ethanol for automobile fuel or migratory birds chopped to smithereens by wind farms. Sun and Wind are high acreage to energy production systems which are most susceptible to NIMBA (not in my backyard) syndrome which is certain as more wind and sun energy production is put in place. Merkel’s thought that these sources can provide Germany with a majority of its energy needs is a pipe dream.

Germany has sponsored much solar energy development with rich subsidies despite not having a sun drenched climate.  It was a minor acknowledgement at not an unbearable cost to their green movement and the goal of reducing carbon emissions.  But combining carbon emissions reduction with the elimination of nuclear energy production is impossible, if you understand the numbers.  The end result is a huge devaluation of an investment stock while throwing out the original goal of reducing carbon emissions which Germany is currently not doing by using coal to cover those intermittency gremlins of Dr. Joskow.  And those gremlins keep on pawing away at the need for natural gas to keep coming from Russia and a diminution of any geo-political decision making such as supporting Ukrainian sovereignty.  France on the other hand has energy independence, meets low carbon emissions goals and protects its natural beauty because it embraces nuclear energy. It has plenty of obnoxious policies holding its economy back, but its nuclear bet is not one of them.

Many Germans would argue that it is a matter of time before France suffers a catastrophe similar to that of Japan’s Fukushima disaster, but much has been learned so that it will be less likely. Inspite of Fukushima, Chernobyl and Three Mile Island the record for nuclear energy is very good, similar to airline versus automobile travel when comparing direct deaths from atomic exposure to coal miner deaths.  Deaths from breathing impure air are difficult to calculate but make the case for carbon much worse. There are many years left before the 2020 limit that Germany has set for it’s nuclear energy plants and it would be logical for them to educate their innumerate “green” voters of the folly of this course taken by Merkel in the heat of Japan’s disaster.