A Brick by Brick Reconstruction of Syria

Ahmad Samih Khalidi’s editorial “To Crush ISIS, Make a Deal With Assad” requires a realpolitik answer to the Faustian proposition he makes.  Principally what good would any arrangement with Bashar al-Assad bring?  Certainly not as a policing force as he proves his ineffectiveness to bring order with desperate use of chemical and barrel bombs on his citizens.  These indiscriminate attacks make enemies out of Sunni moderates wishing for some semblance of law and order and out of this witches brew a small band of vicious operators takes over with a combination of fearsome actions and intelligent takings of funds and arms.  A deal made with Assad would be welcomed by ISIS  to paint the U.S. with the devil’s brush.

Assad can’t police Syria nor can his military conquer or retain territory, as proved by the recent loss of a Syrian Air Force base to ISIS in the north just a few weeks ago and with Damascus about to fall last year Iran had to bring their proxy, Hezbollah, to come to his aid. Clearly Assad adds nothing to the military equation.

Finally there is the usual duplicitous nature of most actors in the Middle East where a realignment of convenience is considered every other day.  Assad is in pure survival mode and will do anything to prolong his rule.  Eventually any coalition that uses Assad has to deal with his certain betrayal.

So what is to be done in Syria?  First take a deep breath and think about what is needed, which is a political entity that can govern with some semblance of law and order. Lashing out at ISIS without a moderate effective force to fill the void is a prescription for perpetual chaos.  An armchair analysis shows a huge Syrian refugee camp in Jordan causing economic and political consternation in that country.  Why not convert a  problem into an asset by focusing on these camps as the base of a moderate Sunni Syrian government in exile?  Fund the development of this group into a viable political entity with a police and militia.  Take several years to expand the camps to accept refugees that are now fleeing to Europe and elsewhere and let a popular and motivated government develop so that it has some semblance of unity similar, albeit much less mature, to what the Kurds have in Iraq. This Syrian government in exile eventually enters the southern border with the assistance of the Jordanian Army and U. S. air power and establishes a toehold and becomes the moderate Sunni Republic of Syria.

With protection in the air from Assad’s easily neutralized forces the repatriated can grow and police themselves.  As the migration of Sunni moderates flow southward the Republic expands and slowly squeezes Assad to his Alawite stronghold in the middle west.  Eventually the Republic expands northeastward securing the Iraqi border and with good luck and effort finally takes over a degraded ISIS.  This whole operation will require years and patience. But the slow deliberate brick by brick building of a sane ally should be the most enduring and one not easily blown down by the region’s mercurial storms.