As its military grows China really needs to ask for what purpose?

China Can Thrive in the Trump Era is an editorial crowing about China becoming a full fledged superpower as if that was a good end in itself.  As its military grows China really needs to ask for what purpose? Is it to bully its neighbors or to protect a harmonious trade zone in Southeast Asia that facilitates the high tech business and logistics that built its economy? If the region is to thrive under a Pax Chinoise then its purpose is to eliminate the inharmonious rather the create it.  Taking out the idiot kid next door playing with nuclear matchsticks would be an exertion of military might that might create regional economic harmony.  Ignoring the delinquent has South Korea, Vietnam and Taiwan looking for arms from our Pentagon to protect themselves and counters China's military and which ratchets up tensions to a level of nuclear confrontation and inharmonious waste.

Kerry ignores his Vietnam experience when formulating an outside solution for Syria

I also remain convinced that the formula we pursued to end the agonizing conflict in Syria was, and remains, the only one with a realistic chance to end the war — using diplomacy to align key countries behind establishing a nationwide cease-fire, providing humanitarian access, marginalizing terrorists and promoting Syrian-led talks on creating a constitution and democratic government.

John Kerry s pipe dream is to believe that Syria can be put together in some sort of unified workable political order from the outside just for nebulous reasons.  Its curious how he ignores his Vietnam experience where he saw first hand how a strong political will that unifies people willing to die for a cause defeats a weak dysfunctional politic that had our full military support.  Currently Syria is a bunch of tribes that can't be unified, not even by a despot. Let it break apart and provide humanitarian support to those regions that develop a political unity that serves its people.

US misguided to use Kurds while Russia Turkey correctly allied to retake Raqqa from ISIS

Russian and Turkish Forces Conduct Joint Airstrikes Against ISIS in Syria because Sunni Arab forces are required to retake Sunni Arab regions from ISIS.  Obama administration has a misguided idea of using the Kurdish pesh merga as an imperial force by arming them to retake Raqqa for who?  The Kurds are strong because they have a political unity that desires a nation state for their people. They do not have the political power nor will to conquer, defend and govern a Sunni Arab region. Yes they took back Kobani from ISIS two years ago but that's a Kurdish city, a region that the pesh merga was willing to die for to retake and a population that welcomed Kurdish governance.  Retaking Raqqa with Kurdish forces would be a careless waste of an ally for peace in the Middle East.
Secondly it appears Russia has a clearer idea about Syria than just supporting Bashar al-Assad and his Allawite tribe in regions where they are not welcome. Foggy Bottom just doesn't get it, Syria is balkanizing and we are the only ones resisting it to the detriment of the people of Syria, a resistance that is the root cause of the inhuman conditions that exist there.

If Amazon offers what everyone else offers locally then it diminishes its advantages

Sears Sells something for Everyone, and That's the Problem describes Sears origin as a catalog company that gave a dispersed customer base access to products not available locally.  That's Amazon today! Curiously as a grocery vendor on Amazon I see the seeds of a hubris blind to its advantages and faults as it enters into the realm of bricks and mortar based commerce.  Amazon's online advantages are unlimited shelf space and complete geographical coverage. Its disadvantage is the high cost of shipping low value product. Currently we are experiencing a change in Amazon where it is culling product offerings as if their shelf space was limited. It appears it does not recognize that its marketplace offers unusual hard to get products to everyone willing to pay for the high delivery cost. If in its quest for bricks and mortar commerce it offers what everyone else offers locally then it diminishes its advantages in the way Sears did.

Kerry's exit memo looks like it came from the Defense, formerly War, Department

The fight against ISIL and violent extremism more broadly is a generational challenge that cannot be won overnight. It will require efforts on the battlefield and online, today and in years to come. But I am absolutely confident that, working with our coalition partners, we will win this fight and ISIL will be defeated.

Both Syria and Iraq require a despot to keep together the various tribes and sects as a nation state.  Now that Saddam Hussein is gone in Iraq and Bashar al-Assad is too weak in Syria the thought of letting each country balkanize into politically functional regions is one that the State Department stays blind to for status quo reasons.  Kerry's and the State Departments' problem is denial of reality and when the status quo is not sustainable they bring in the Pentagon which doesn't change the reality and leaves State to ride out the consequences.  For example when Mosul is reconquered by military forces comprised of the Iraqi army, Shiite Militias, Iranian Republican Guards and U.S. Forces what political unity will be left there to fester so that ISIS metastasizes into something else? What is State doing to prevent another "allies win the battle and lose the war"? It won't be until State realizes that former Prime Minister al-Maliki irretrievably broke Iraq apart that any progress can be made to pacify the region. In Syria trying to get Bashar al-Assad to step down is a fool's errand.  He has the full support of his Allawite tribe.  He steps down and the tribe is lost and so is the only Russian naval base on the Mediterranean. To think that Russia will back down from support of their key ally holding onto that base boggles the mind. Let Syria balkanize and Russia would not have interest in expanding al-Assad's power in regions he can't control. Actually Russia is already decided to make nice with Turkey and help them control the Sunni Arab regions of Syria though its not clear foggy bottom sees it. 

Ash Carter entertained thought Russia would go for a unity government in Syria

Can't believe Secretary of Defense Ash Carter on NBC this morning thought that Russia would agree to remove Bashar al-Assad and replace with a moderate coalition government in Syria.  If one were to understand that Russia's only naval base in the Mediterranean is in al-Assad's Allawite home turf then you would think it was Ash Carter.  Its plain that Putin supports anyone who secures the base for Russia. A coalition government would not so that private negotiations where Russian negotiators appear to bend on the issue is just hot air. State and Defense should know it's not workable just on the Realpolitik face of it.
A realistic analysis of what could be done to bring peace in Syria is to let it partition into separate regions which would keep al-Assad in his Allawite enclave and Russia's base with a secure ally.

Geithner is the knockout blow the newly elected President never saw coming

Timothy Geithner in his book Stress Test describes a series of last minute saves directed by his bosses Henry Paulson, Secretary of the Treasury, and Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank, where he played the part of the financial plumber, a trading floor expertise in the piping and flow of money, devising last minute fixes to a financial structure that had strayed very far from reality.  The Paulson team feared bankruptcy more than the blowback from the injustices of their ad hoc fixes. Each save required extra legal maneuvers to overcome historical legislative obstacles put there to stop runaway calamities from getting even worse. Nevertheless despite the machinations of the team the depression was not averted.  In the post mortem the team’s most egregious overreach was to bailout AIG, an insurance company which by law has many firewalls to protect its various businesses.  The problem was the London unit at AIG that insured Wall Street’s derivative business. It was at the brink of collapse after having grossly mispriced the risks it took on.  That Secretary Paulson, former Chairman of Goldman Sachs, used taxpayer money to make good his old firm’s hedges with AIG is an accusation that he will have to live with, but that Barack Obama chose Timothy Geithner as his Secretary of the Treasury at the suggestion of another former Goldman Sachs Chairman, Robert E Rubin, is the knockout blow the newly elected President never saw coming.
By December of 2008 as President Elect Obama was putting Timothy Geithner up for nomination the issue of AIG’s contracted bonuses came due.  These bonuses were for regular insurance business completely apart from the London unit and they had to be paid because there had been no bankruptcy to break the contracts.  As the new President  took the oath of office Wall Street got bonuses and the working class pink slips, at the rate of 700,000 per month. It took just a few short weeks for Obama to be wiped off the crest of the wave on which he rode into office by Rick Santelli, a Chicago commodities trader and CNBC Squawk Box commentator, who let out a televised rant which started the Tea Party and the 2010 GOP takeover of the House and Senate. This spontaneous televised outburst took on a life of its own as the recession played out and the new Secretary of the Treasury did his level best to make life safe for the establishment.
Santelli’s rant eliminated the possibility of bipartisan goodwill as Republicans very quickly smelled impending defeat of the Democratic majorities in Congress.  The Tea Party election of 2010 gave Republicans an obstructionist power but they too were blind to the injured White Working Middle Class.  So blind that the GOP’s 2012 candidate, Mitt Romney, was the very cake eater they hated. The one who shuttered factories and dashed their dreams.  It was not was until Trump appeared that these people who had lost in life found a voice in one who had no hesitancy in naming villains; be they Mexican, Muslim or Immigrant. FDR lashed out against Wall Street and made some of it kingpins into public villains without sacrificing his humanity. Acting on a gut reaction against something as patently unfair as bonuses for Wall Street and pink slips for the rest of us would have done Obama a world of good.