#Libertarians recognize Probabilities from conjecture are just stories and should be explained as such, #Authoritarians don't

Thinking about Julian Sanchez's "Why do Intellectuals Support Government Solutions?" with David Leonhardt's probabilities opinion piece "What I was Wrong About this Year" and I come up with data points. What's great about big data in marketing is the continual vote taking in the market and success is measured in sales. But how to measure success or failure while navigating through issues of war and peace?  The truth is that there can't be expertise without solid data points and the example of the Israeli Intelligence service giving the estimate of a 10% probability of war with Syria is a figure pulled out the air. Explaining the probability as a story is correct because that is what it is. (BTW I think Michael Lewis's The Undoing Project  is the most thought provoking read of the millennia.) And with regard to intellectuals imposing their thoughts on the public I think its best examined by William Easterly's The Tyrrany of Experts