Tuesday, June 3, 2025

The Trump Always Chickens Out (TACO) trade.

899 — The Three Numbers Alarming the Bond Market

Taxing foreign capital could be another nail in the coffin of American exceptionalism. Emerging markets could benefit.

John Authers is a senior editor for markets and Bloomberg Opinion columnist. A former chief markets commentator at the Financial Times, he is author of “The Fearful Rise of Markets.” 


THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN


Wall Street analysts recently began joking that the best way to predict the behavior of President Trump — and make money in the process — was by practicing the “TACO trade,” which stands for “Trump always chickens out.” You can always bet on Trump rolling back a reckless tariff.

Emerging Haven

Among the biggest and unlikeliest winners from the decline of American exceptionalism have been emerging-market currencies. The Trump Always Chickens Out (TACO) trade — a belief that tariffs won’t happen — has given them a tailwind to counteract the trade uncertainty.

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