The ugliest possibility is a great unwinding where catastrophic economic damage causes countries to seek self-sufficiency, perhaps by building regional spheres of influence that provide resources and markets. This would be drastic, but not unprecedented: When interdependence collapsed during the Great Depression, aggressive powers conquered enormous empires in hopes of creating self-contained prosperity and security against their foes.

 

Wars Have Entered the Chokehold Era

By Hal Brands

Hal Brands is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist and the Henry Kissinger Distinguished Professor at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies.