The US administration needs to recognize it cannot hope to get a quick win in these circumstances, even if it blockades all trade with Iran through Hormuz. It can if it wants to escalate a war with no clear path to success, and with enormous costs for the US and the rest of the world. Or Trump can accept that he will, at least temporarily, have to drop his ultimatums and return to talks on a more realistic timescale with a ceasefire in place and Hormuz open. Iranian negotiators have made clear that they are ready to return to diplomacy, and commodity and stock markets seem — judging by their still relatively sanguine response — to believe that has to happen. Trump would come to regret testing that belief for too long.

 

The Hormuz Blockade Is a Throwdown the US Can't Win

April 13, 2026 at 3:35 AM EDT

By Marc Champion

Marc Champion is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Europe, Russia and the Middle East. He was previously Istanbul bureau chief for the Wall Street Journal.