Monday, December 25, 2017

#Libertarians recognize Probabilities from conjecture are just stories and should be explained as such, #Authoritarians don't

Thinking about Julian Sanchez's "Why do Intellectuals Support Government Solutions?" with David Leonhardt's probabilities opinion piece "What I was Wrong About this Year" and I come up with data points. What's great about big data in marketing is the continual vote taking in the market and success is measured in sales. But how to measure success or failure while navigating through issues of war and peace?  The truth is that there can't be expertise without solid data points and the example of the Israeli Intelligence service giving the estimate of a 10% probability of war with Syria is a figure pulled out the air. Explaining the probability as a story is correct because that is what it is. (BTW I think Michael Lewis's The Undoing Project  is the most thought provoking read of the millennia.) And with regard to intellectuals imposing their thoughts on the public I think its best examined by William Easterly's The Tyrrany of Experts 

Thursday, December 21, 2017

Tech has too much cash, hopefully with tax bill they consider distributing it

Ignoring the Tech Tsunami doesn't address the problem of too much cash which the tax bill may help in its distribution.  Too much cash, how can that be a problem? First and foremost the static return on the outstanding cash diminishes earnings growth.  Secondly, managing that cash changes the corporate culture as prudent CFO's rather than risk taking innovators rise in the hierarchy. Finally there is no need for so much cash because tech investments only require a few billion dollars, literally pocket change, and the danger from too much cash is that the company strays from its core competency and buys something stupid. With this new tax bill rich tech should consider dividend distributions to reduce their cash positions to one year's earning and let the shareholders find other investment opportunities.