Chris Christie Leaned on Short-Term Budget Fixes

“Louisiana: New Governor Finds Growing Shortfall” The departing governor, Bobby Jindal, a Republican who mounted a failed presidential bid, refused to support anything he considered a net tax increase and leaned on short-term budget fixes.

How about this campaign epitaph for another who would prove to be a miserable steward of our economy?

Chris Christie a Republican who mounted a failed presidential bid, refused to support anything he considered a net tax increase and leaned on short-term budget fixes.

Trump's Appeal is to Losers

According to Nate Cohn's article in the New York Times: "Trump's Strongest Supporter: A Certain Kind of Democrat" fits a familiar pattern of a map of the tendency toward racism by region, according to measures like the prevalence of Google searches for racial slurs and racist jokes, or scores on implicit association tests. But it’s not racism that is the defining characteristic of Trump's appeal, it’s losers in life.  Losers tend to shortcut analyses of circumstance with easy answers based on distrust, of which racism is a particularly virulent form. That Ted Cruz another winner in life, seeks this support is the height of hypocrisy.

The Mathematical Paradox That Destroys The Argument For NSA Surveillance

An excellent article in the Police State Daily.

G.O.P.: The Cake Eater's Party

From The Atlantic "Great Republican Revolt" by David Frum:  White Middle Americans express heavy mistrust of every institution in American society: not only government, but corporations, unions, even the political party they typically vote for—the Republican Party of Romney, Ryan, and McConnell, which they despise as a sad crew of weaklings and sellouts. They are pissed off.  Actually pissed off more because they are lied to about opportunity and being better off while the G.O.P. establishment is run by self serving tax dodgers worthy of Marie Antoinette's comment about the poor, "let them eat cake."

Celebrating Victory Over ISIS, Iraqi Leader Looks to Next Battles

Prime Minister of Iraq, Haider al-Abadi's crowing will make Daesh more dangerous.  Also talking of future conquests is reckless for a leader intent on keeping one country yet is without an inclusive and moderate body politic.

Unfortunately for Bernie a “willingness to trust each other” can not be Legislated

As might be expected from boosters whose job it is to promote economic growth and talk up the Twin Cities’ appeal, many Itasca participants express confidence that their project could be replicated elsewhere. Mr. Campbell, though, is less sure.

“My answer is maybe,” he said. “There’s a unique willingness to trust each other here. It’s kind of in our blood.”

Trust fuels the delivery of the public good in commerce and society. It’s what separates Libertarians who trusts the spontaneous self organizing character of markets to the Authoritarian distrust of human nature.  It’s a north south thing from which the generalisation that harsh winter climate breeds a survival characteristic for saving and sharing. On the other hand plentiful food and a moderate climate year round never develops these trusting traits. It’s what allows Northern Europe’s socialism to provide the public good efficiently where on the other hand an easy life in Southern Europe diverts much of the good to corruption.

An apolitical description of a successful society is one that provides the maximum public good with the assets at hand.  Adam Smith’s market economy is the best example but not the only one.  Bernie Sanders has an enthusiasm for “Nordic Socialism” which is a self developed mix of market and communal solutions which apparently works well in Scandinavia.  Here in “Nordic” Minnesota; Itasca, the Twin Cities communal business effort, is an example of a spontaneous local effort but unfortunately for Bernie a “willingness to trust each other” can not be legislated.       

Our Foreign Policy's Incoherence Comes by Equating Military with Political Power

Obama’s ‘Boot on the Ground’: Special Forces is an example, air power is another, of our reliance on military action with little thought given to what happens after. In the multi-ethnic Middle East where allegiance is to a tribe rather than a nation our foreign policy should shelve its obsession with the dysfunctional political status quo and let states such as Syria and Iraq split apart. With that change in focus The State Department ought to develop a boots on the ground team that identifies and funds tribal leaders directly, much like General Petraeus did during the surge in Iraq.  And finally the Obama Administration ought to require a functioning political union built up and ready to populate a target region before the military is set on its mission of conquest.

Just as this was written a new headline appeared in the New York Times online: Iraqi Forces Retake Center of Ramadi from ISIS with a very telling comment: Dr. Luizard predicted that if Sunni leaders in Anbar Province and other Sunni-majority areas of Iraq were not granted legitimate autonomy, the Islamic State would make a comeback. “The Islamic State continues to make a better offer to the people it controls than the Baghdad government — whose return is the greatest fear of most inhabitants,” he said of the Sunnis of Anbar Province.

Donald Trump: The Man Who Would Be King

Its difficult to believe that a nation declaring its independence from King George III of Britain two hundred and forty years ago would anoint the Capricious Donald as its first.

Chris Christie Would Trade Our Liberty For an Illusory Sense of Security

Gov. Chris Christie makes the dubious claim that as "the United States attorney for New Jersey, framing it as a time when he spent his “life protecting our country” against terrorism."   Its the promise of all authoritarians with no real accomplishment other than a governance of the State of New Jersey laced with debt and corruption.  

Waiting to Flip the Switch

The Sierra Club doesn’t appreciate what fracking, a free market energy solution, is doing for its cause to clean and preserve our environment. Germany for example is lauded for its government sponsored green energy policy favoring solar and wind, but unfortunately for our atmosphere they rely on dirty coal to take care of the intermittency problem when the sun don’t shine and the wind don’t blow to the point where they did not make  their CO2 emissions goals of the past two years while contributing to the scar making mountaintop scraping coal mining machine. The U.S. on the other hand finds itself as the world’s leader in the reduction CO2 emissions these past few years and before the supposed onerous EPA utility emissions regulations are to take effect. This reduction come from power plant converting to gas from coal purely for the fact that it’s cheaper!

Today’s New York Times article in its business section describes how U.S. energy companies are now setting up their fracked wells as underground storage tanks to be turned on and off as the price of energy dictates.  This market flexibility means the death knell to long term hard to turn on and off projects such as Canada’s oil tar sands and Arctic Ocean oil exploration and drilling. Apparently fracking is the gift that keeps on giving unintended victories to the Sierra Club.         

Rubio Looks in the Mirror and Sees the Republicans’ Obama - Not

Mr. Rubio’s argument that Mr. Obama is a failure because of his ideology, not his biography has two defects.  One is that Obama is a failed president and the other that Rubio has an ideology rather than a muddled mix of libertarian and authoritarian policies that never square.  Obama on the other hand is consistent with his authoritarian Franklin Delano Roosevelt ideological heritage.

Reforming Regressive Regulation

Both left and right want economic growth but we just disagree on how to make a bigger pie. Cato's "Low Hanging Fruit Guarded by Dragons" picks on licensing requirements that stifle entrepreneurship and make the pie smaller.

Angela Merkel is Exacerbating and Extending the Conflict in Syria

In response to Roger Cohen's editorial "Germany, Refugee Nation" Angela Merkel is wrong to have permitted an unlimited welcome. It has enticed moderate people to make a dangerous and costly trek and drains conflict regions of a very important population. In Syria for example the resources that Germany is currently allocating domestically could have been better put generously funding the U. N. campaign for refugee camps in northwestern Jordan to attract Syrians seeking a decent workable life close by their homeland and with an opportunity to self develop a moderate government in exile which then could follow up and repopulate conquered from ISIS lands. On the other hand those fleeing to Europe are dangerously stressing Germany’s, and middle Europe as well, social fabric and leave a moderate political vacuum in Syria which exacerbates and extends the conflict.

See "Utopia" for Syrian Refugee Camp alternative to Germany

Ted Cruz's Carpet Bombing Campaign Incites More Jihadi Lone Wolves

Carpet bombing risks to population comes from ISIS's tactic to purposely mingle in urban areas so there will be collateral damage.  Indiscriminate bombing inflames the surviving innocents to seek and ask for vengeance against America.  On the other hand a dull back page strategy of containment and degradation draws less attention.

See "Utopia" for a break up of Syria and Iraq perspective

Republican's Anti Obama Stance Destroyed the Party

Ted Cruz is intelligent enough to understand that carpet bombing ISIS out of existence is not a foreign policy but to keep up with Donald Trump's bombast he says it anyway.  The G.O.P. promoted the lie despite all evidence to the contrary that Barack Obama is a failed Presidency and so it lost control of the narrative to the liars.

The Assad Solution in Syrian is Staring us Right in the Face

Hawaida Saad and Andrew Kramer's News Analysis Over Putin's Gambit is one of these two handed economists' views that Harry Truman so derided as President when given a "on the one hand versus on the other" analysis that left him without a clear path forward.  For example:

"For now, at least, the United States is pressing for Russian cooperation on peace talks. Russia has agreed in principle to push for talks but dismisses most of the Syrian opposition as terrorists, and it remains unclear if Moscow will agree to talks with a new opposition body formed in Saudi Arabia this month. Also unclear is if Russia will agree to the departure of Mr. Assad in some transitional process — a condition the opposition insists on."

Leaves the reader as hung up as Secretary of State John Kerry.  What is it that keeps Kerry from negotiating with Russia and Iran to contain and protect Assad in his Alawite enclave? This would leave the remainder of Syria for Sunnis to determine among Daesh and others and do much to clarify the allies' fight against ISIS. Also its a face saver for Putin to keep out of the contested areas of Syria.

See "Utopia" for a break up of Syria and Iraq perspective

Ministry of Silly Laws

Cleaning Out the Cupboard of British Law is tragic for its laughable insistence on thoroughly researching every law to be repealed.  Justice is best served when all parties know the law and thereby act appropriately to avoid breaking it.  When laws are numerous many countermand each other so the public can not know the law and justice is more or less delivered after the fact.  For the sake of a just and harmonious society finding an effective method of clearing out useless laws is an existential requirement.

Scholar Who Explained The Power of Nationalism

Benedict Anderson's obituary brings to mind a question regarding Iraq and Syria which is whether there is a sense of nationhood to hold these countries together.  Going to the library right now for Imagined Communities.



See my "Utopia" post for the break up Iraq and Syria perspective

Ineffectual Top Down Urgings for Peace

Diplomacy requires levers that are connected to an effective governing force but once again Secretary of State John Kerry jawbones a nonexistent political union of Libyan Rivals to Govern Together in a harmony of tribes and winner take all oil stakes. Apparently he doesn't realize that he has redoubled ISIS's attention towards its best prospect.

See my "Utopia" post for the break up Iraq and Syria perspective

Credit Taken When Not Due

Secretary of State John Kerry lauding the recent climate change accord in Paris with a comment that it was Obama's leadership that caused the U.S. to reduce emissions more than than others.  But it's the free market's self developed fracking of shale oil reserves that got us there and not any politically endorsed policy.

Trump is Bad for Business

When I wrote that it meant business in general but now it appears its particularly bad for his Middle East luxury buildings and resorts businesses with comments like “I now feel ashamed to live in a building associated with such a vile man.”

Stupid Environmental Programs

The ethanol requirement in our nation's gasoline is a nonsensical and pure crony influenced answer for cleaning the environment here in the U.S. and now I find in Britain the power company Drax  has converted three of its half-dozen huge boilers to burn wood scraps imported from North America, instead of coal.  Really? As if deforestation is something to be promoted.

Good Move by Connecticut Governor Dan Malloy

States are the laboratories of our democracy and so if after the tragedy of the Newtown massacre of six year old children its appropriate that Connecticut take unilateral action on gun control. Gun control advocates are wrong to seek federal remedies rather than local solutions.  Frontier justice as practiced by Wyatt Earp where he collected the firearms of visiting gunslingers before letting them into town is an example of local control with an image contrary to Charlton Heston's cold dead hands NRA rallying call.

Donald Trump - The Master of The Con

That’s the power of the good con artist: the ability to identify your deepest need and exploit it. It’s not about honesty or greed; we are all suckers for belief.

What's More Important? The Fight Against ISIS or Keeping Iraq a Unified Country?

The troop movements on the outskirts of Mosul apparently came in recent days and were done in coordination with the autonomous Kurdish government in northern Iraq, but not with the central government in Baghdad. They prompted the Iraqi foreign ministry to summon the Turkish ambassador in protest on Saturday and demand that the forces withdraw from Iraq.

See my "Utopia" post for the break up Iraq and Syria perspective

Let's Not Over React and Exchange Our Liberty for Illusory Security

The death toll from jihadist terrorism on American soil since the Sept. 11 attacks — 45 people — is about the same as the 48 killed in terrorist attacks motivated by white supremacist and other right-wing extremist ideologies, according to New America, a research organization in Washington.

What's Secretary of State John Kerry Smoking?

Kerry Urges Deft Removal of Assad to Crush ISIS is even dumber than George W Bush's expectation that democracy would come to Iraq with the removal of Saddam Hussein.  Daesh wants Kerry's success in Vienna because removing Assad would make them the only working political union in Syria.


See "Utopia" for a splitting Iraq and Syria perspective

Germany's Energy Policy is Delusional

Germany’s Approach to Reducing Fossil Fuel Use May Be Global Model - Let's hope not.

Germany should focus just on one objective, reducing carbon emissions.  Eliminating nuclear power is hugely counter to that objective. Both Solar and Wind power are intermittent with fluctuations when the sun don't shine and the wind don't blow that requires back up power, power that currently comes from the cheapest source available, dirty coal. So while Germany is patting itself on the back for a great renewable energy policy, its putting more dirty carbon in the atmosphere and missing its self imposed carbon emitting limits. In other words its paying a huge economic penalty to clean the air while doing the opposite.    

Utopia

Understanding that the terrorist attack in Paris is a taunt purposely administered to foster mindless retaliatory action that results in, from the book ISIS: Inside the Army of Terror by Michael Weiss and Hassan Hassan, “another tactical victory rendered strategically negligible” will go a long way in dealing with the jihadi rebellion.  Rather than play along with Al Qaeda’s The Management of Savagery  manual to weaken enemy states through “vexation and exhaustion” the western democracies must counter with tension deflating tactics toward a goal to pacify the region.

Daesh, The Islamic State, wants to establish a severe Sunni Caliphate. Its strategy is to develop a state that governs and expands its domain with fear fomenting tactics to dominate and expand its territory. Terror is the tactic used to goad us to mindlessly react and feed the recruiting, fundraising and propagandizing efforts of the caliphate. Because they choose chaos as a weapon then we, The Allies, must counter with order so as not to inflame the region. Because diplomacy at its best seeks to reduce tensions and bring about order the Department of State needs to lead the American participation with holistic rather than just military solutions.

Extremist exist everywhere but in a region of political dysfunction Daesh has coalesced  from various elements to flourish.  This fight against a renegade state in the making is one for diplomacy to identify, nurture and even create functioning political unions that deliver a  modicum of effective governance to fill the vacuums.  Justice is a particularly hard good to deliver in federal systems where family, tribe and clan are the primary social ties. The first tension reducing tactic is to embrace a “Balkan-style partition and new regional political order” as mentioned by Ali Khedery in a Foreign Affairs article “Iraq in Pieces: Breaking up to Stay together”  to administer primarily at a tribal elder level. To insist on a federal Iraq and Syria that supercede local autonomy is to argue for gross injustice that foments the dysfunction that nurtures Daesh.  

For example accepting a fractured Syria would allow for a policy to contain Assad in his Alawite enclave by the sea rather than seek his ouster and leave a political vacuum. Secretary of State John Kerry’s current negotiations in Vienna to formulate from the top a peace accord in Syria which eliminates Assad without delivering a viable political union to govern is a certain disaster similar to George W. Bush’s unilateral intervention in Iraq that toppled Saddam Hussein.  Containing Assad could be negotiated with Russia and Iran so that his regime is protected as long it does not lash out into Sunni Arab territories where allied air operations will shoot down his barrel bombing helicopters.

Accepting a balkanized Iraq and Syria will assist the nation forming efforts of the Kurds in northeastern Iraq and Syria by giving them full unhindered access to their oil revenues. The current distribution through Baghdad dissipates with corruption the efficient delivery of this public good.  That Kurdistan Iraq manages peaceful relations with Iran at its eastern border despite their being Sunni Muslims is an example of moderation deserving our support for their nationhood.

Baghdad and the south of Iraq can use its locally sourced oil revenues to fund and administer the Shia nation they desire. Without the pressure to distribute oil revenues to Sunni Arabs to their west they have little incentive to expand into the oil poor and hated regions occupied by Daesh.

With Shia enclaves to the east and west and Kurdistan to the north the Allies isolate the vexing Sunni Arab cauldron.  According to Weiss and Hassan Daesh recognizes a need for and provides rudimentary governance to the people over which they reign.  It can be argued what they provide is materially better than the dysfunction they replace and has some grudging local acceptance. If only Daesh were to drop its quest for a caliphate then the Allies could stand down. Unfortunately terrorism is an addiction and it requires military containment and degradation, but not conquest, while a moderate Sunni state forms to replace it; possibly along the southeast border adjacent to Jordan in the Syrian refugee camps.

Conquest without a capable political union to follow was the folly of our unilateral Iraqi invasion of 2003.  The recent retaking of Kurdish cities in Iraq and Syria come from a strong political union among Kurds but it is not an imperial force willing to take the fight to Sunni Arab regions.  Conquering Daesh requires time and generous funding to develop a moderate Sunni  utopia. Enough to attract Syrian Sunni Arabs from regions controlled by Daesh and northern Europe as well. Jordan, also generously funded, would assist the Syrian refugees into southeastern Syria in sufficient numbers to form self governed city states protected by Jordan’s troops and allied air power. The success of this nascent state forming strategy would have the ancillary benefit of deflating Daesh’s jihadi fervor.  

The pacifying course outlined above will be needed in other regions as well. Libya, for example, is on the brink of fracturing among its various tribes and oil rich regions. Tunisia, an island of decency that also needs nurture and protection, will  provide safe haven for those fleeing the chaos next door and possibly help establish the stable political unions needed to re-enter Libya. Also it’s best to withdraw immediately our alliance with Egypt’s military dictatorship. This boil needs piercing now because it is not a building block for a stable future order in the region. Jihadi rebellion is the challenge of our era. Countering it requires a revision in outlook that tempers the conceit of American exceptionalism and accepts that good governance is to deliver the maximum public good for the least cost.  It's a nonjudgmental observation which should be practiced here at home and promoted abroad.

New Math

The Politics of Math Education reminded of Tom Lehrer's priceless "New Math" song.

British Airstrikes - Ours Is Not to Reason Why, Ours is to Do Or Die

“It is important symbolically, useful operationally, but not transformative,” he said. “A willingness to deploy will allay the concern that the U.K. is not a reliable partner.” in a hopeless ill defined mission.

Fracking is Killing the Dirty and Dangerous Coal Business - Not the EPA

Pandering Republicans need to be taught by the the electorate that a free market cuts both ways; sometimes it helps your friends and sometimes it doesn't.  When you try to fix it so that it always helps your friends well then that's tyranny.  The deployment of renewable energy has already grown so sharply, he noted, that some American states whose political leaders oppose the Obama administration’s Clean Power Plan might well find themselves in “accidental compliance” as their use of renewable energy reduces the need for burning fossil fuels.

Arriba Movimiento Brasil Livre Fora Dilma

For Ms. Rousseff, the challenges in Congress point to yet another low point in her presidency after she narrowly won re-election a year ago to a second term. Since then, she has grappled with large street protests seeking her ouster, single-digit approval ratings and Brazil’s worst economic crisis in decades.

Nuclear Submarine Power Stations

As an adjunct to Peter Thiel's editorial: "The New Atomic Age we Need" I believe that nuclear submarines, which appear to be such a waste in a world with regional factional conflict and terror rather than state ones, would better serve the public as underwater long tube nuclear power creating mechanisms to provide clean energy in coastal urban areas and safely since radioactivity does not radiate more than a few feet from its source in water.

Fight ISIS and Yet Stay True to our Heritage of Liberty

A growing anxiety in the wake of the Paris terrorist attacks is calling all sides of the American political spectrum to action.  Unfortunately reaction to fear puts our heritage based on the Declaration of Independence in a position where we trade our liberty for the illusory security of a garrison state. The 9/11 terrorist attacks ignited fears the likes of which not seen since the red scare of the nineteen forties and fifties with the posturing of many of our leaders and thoughtful commentators who would betray our heritage in the name of preserving it. Understanding that Paris is a taunt purposely administered to foster mindless retaliatory action that results in, from the book ISIS: Inside the Army of Terror by Michael Weiss and Hassan Hassan, “another tactical victory rendered strategically negligible because of the enormous propaganda boon it delivered” will go a long way in logically dealing with the chaos.  Rather than play along with the Al Qaida manual, The Management of Savagery, instructing how to weaken enemy states through “vexation and exhaustion” the allies must counter with alternative tension deflating tactics directed toward various strategies in the Middle East with a goal of pacifying the region and yet stay true to our heritage of liberty.

Marco Rubio the Neocon Puppet

Restoring America's Strength: My Vision for U.S. Foreign Policy by Marco Rubio is a declaration for the need to double down on George W. Bush's unilateral adventure into the hornet's nest in the Middle East and a call to seek out others.

Two Articles indicating a Path to a Grand Strategy to Pacify the Middle East

It is far more likely, however, that Iraq will continue its current slide and its government will keep failing to fulfill its basic obligations to deliver security and services. In that case, the next U.S. president should act decisively to prevent Iraq from degenerating into a second Syria, a zombie state terrorizing its citizens, exporting millions of refugees, and incubating jihad. This would mean openly encouraging confederal decentralization across Iraq and Syria—devolving powers from Baghdad and Damascus to the provinces while maintaining the two countries’ territorial integrity. In extreme circumstances, Washington might resort to embracing Balkan-style partition and a new regional political order. 

To be sure, the United States would profit greatly from close ties with a strong, prosperous Egypt that had a representative government and a capable military—a country that could act as an anchor for regional security and counterterrorist efforts, help contain Iran, and live up to its historical role as a leader of and model for the Arab world. But such an Egypt does not exist today and seems unlikely to emerge anytime soon. In the two years since leading a military coup, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has given little reason to hope that he can sustainably grow the country’s economy or improve basic services and security. Meanwhile, he has cracked down on almost all forms of dissent and opposition. The Sisi regime has simply not provided a credible road map for Egypt’s future.

Pandering to Fear

Rand:  Your latest latest Senate move to defund refugees is pandering to the electorate's fear. You know better. Fear leads to authoritarian actions contrary to our libertarian ideals and heritage.

Paris Aftermath

Watching Charlie Rose last night and was struck by Roger Cohen's dispirited outlook from the attacks which reached a point of mindlessness.  If ISIS's sole purpose was to taunt our leaders and opinion makers into mindless reaction then they succeeded.  Michael Weiss on the other hand appears to have a deep nuanced understanding of Syria and Iraq, I just downloaded his ISIS: Inside the Army of Terror, that recognizes Secretary of State John Kerry's cease fire effort for Syria negotiated in Vienna without Syrians is laughably delusional.  In a nut shell the good guys lay down their arms before Assad's and Daesh's assault.  Deep understanding shines a light on a pathway to peace and apparently its what Kerry lacks about Syria.

Those Who Give Up Liberty for Security deserve Neither

You got that C.I.A. Director John Brennan?  Terrorist adapt to big brother surveillance so that the authorities require more and more intrusion.  It appears that the Paris strikes were coordinated with Sony Play Station. The unblinking eye now will re-direct its surveillance to play. With Brennan as their ally the terrorist are destroying our liberty with taunts to get us into the fight overseas and make ourselves a garrison state.

Small Brewers

I heard Chris Murphy on NPR speaking against the consolidation of the beer business.  What he spoke of sounded generally meddlesome, such as the unfairness of the canning industry giving favorable treatment to the giants of the business.  If a small craft brewer wants to compete by offering canned beer then they deserve to go out of business because they don't know their market, which is deliver something special to their customers and not some InBev swivel. 

The Strategy

After the terrorism in Paris all the candidates declare that something has to be done to counter ISIS.  Its the the mindless response that ISIS wants! The western democracies must understand that a strategy that pacifies rather than exacerbates is what is required. Trying to hold together the failed nation states of Iraq and Syria exacerbates the tensions in the middle east.  To pacify let the various sects split apart and fully support with humanitarian and economic aid enclaves of decency where moderate political unions that serve its people can develop and use the military sparingly to defend their sanctuaries from the barbarians outside. Eventually these communities grow with those seeking refuge from terror and a place for a real life so that the swamps are drained of the good and the terrorist whither with no victims to terrorize.

Et Tu, Turkey?

Roger Cohen's "Turkey, Haunted by its Ghosts" is archived here as a reflection on the forces breaking regions off the former Ottoman Empire into new nation states.

Secretary of State John Kerry is the Nonstarter

Just listening to the 4:00 clock news on NPR and hear the Russians telling Kerry that it does not support theoretical designs of a Syria without Assad and The Secretary countering that such a stance is a nonstarter. Really?  Why re-assemble an already broken up Syria? And for that matter, Iraq?  Where is it written that a nation state can never be broken up?  Europe assembled Syria and Iraq with the stroke of a pen.  No one can accuse Kerry of lacking dogged determination but as with his Israeli peace mission two years ago he is up against intractable social hurt and damage that no pen and paper can put back together again.  Why not let Assad have his Alawite enclave and the Kurds and Sunnis have theirs?

Minimum Wages should be determined locally, if at all

On Minimum Wage, Ben Carson is No Longer an Outsider Republican.  Rand Paul should differentiate from other Republicans by declaring that it is not a federal issue that needs to be decided in Washington.  If New York City determines that it needs a higher minimum wage for its workers in a high cost region then more power to Mayor deBlasio.  But that minimum wage would be way too high for a rural Mississippi, heck, even a rural New York town as well so that Governor Cuomo should be careful.

Focus on the Kurds

Two headlines, A Journey in a Free Syria and Kurds Open an Offensive against ISIS, show the value of a motivated and unified political union, Iraq's Kurdistan region with its pesh merga. The Kurds require a support that supersedes the interests of Turkey and Shia dominated Baghdad keeping them from creating a nation from pieces of Northern Iraq and Syria.

Fewer Laws

Randy Barnett's  Structure of Liberty chapter regarding problems of knowledge makes very clear that when the public has widespread and good knowledge of the law that courses of action that will lead to legal conflict are generally avoided making for a more harmonious society.  But as more laws are written, many countermanding other laws, the complexity confuses and diminishes knowledge. Counter intuitively, more laws create disharmony.

Carried Interest is a Racket

Rand Paul just sent me an email saying that the Federal Reserve is a racket, true but he should lower his sights to a real crony racket that he could be a part of fixing, carried interest.  Its a niche carved out by creative accountants and lawyers whereby income is converted to asset by a double talk sleight of hand that avoids the tax payment normally due on such a conversion.  That this little tax wiggle benefits hugely very few people, definitely fewer than one thousand and probably just a few hundred, the likes of Mitt Romney partly explains these people's tax payment at rates of one third to their secretaries.  Carried interest has a very strong lobby defending it. Hillary benefits from this lobby and so do the big money raising G. O. P candidates, Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio.  

Obama did TransCanada a Favor

By rejecting the Keystone XL pipeline.  Its obvious under today's oil pricing conditions that tar sands oil is uneconomic. The infrastructure proposal to deliver the product to where it is not wanted, Texas refineries are full to the brim with heavy oil from Venezuela and Mexico, was running on pure political bull handedness these past few years as North Dakota's light crude from fracking superseded oil sands from a pure profitability perspective.  That TransCanada could not make the decision to kill the project despite the same sunken costs that Shell had to consider when dropping its Artic Ocean operation recently shows a indecisiveness that as an investor should make one steer clear of.  Obama made the decision for them but by using easily overturned arguments it will drive TransCanada's  infighters to pursue in court their right to fund uneconomic projects.  It will be a Pyrrhic victory.

Exxon Lied on Climate?

Attorney General Eric T. Schneiderman shouldn't have started this charge at a windmill.  A reasonable public understands that an oil company will presents one side and outsiders, such as The Sierra Club, the other. Prosecuting economic cheats such as those selling rice as vitamin supplements to unwitting consumers is very clearly a good work of the Attorney General's office. This action on the other hand is the over reach of a self important individual.

Author's note:  In reading Randy Barnett's The Structure of Liberty, Justice and the Rule of Law chapter on the partiality problem he finds its best that two sides of a legal action argue their case as best as their lawyers can for justice and the public good.  Outside of court free speech help's direct self or corporate partiality.

Dry Manhattan

Ruling in Mexico Sets the Stage for legalization of Marijuana is a tipping point to the costliest and most destructive "do gooder" imperative ever devised by a body politic.  Dry Manhattan: Prohibition in New York City by Michael Lerner chronicles that in 1919, the United States embarked on the country's boldest attempt at moral and social reform: Prohibition. The 18th Amendment to the Constitution prohibited the manufacture, transportation, and sale of alcohol around the country. ... Google Books .  The opus covering what our drug laws have done to South America has yet to be written. Lerner's book on New York in the 1920's is a quick primer.

China's Crony Capitalism

China Tempers Its Growth Expectations, to 6.5% a Year. Its seems like such a made up number by a committee of insiders unrestrained by press analysis. China Entices, but doing business Proves Hard on the other hand describes the dead hand of connected insiders.  China's current economic malaise is more than a bump in the road along the path toward overtaking the U.S. economy. China's mania for controlling from the center smothers its growth prospects because its incapable of re-inventing itself after taking advantage of the low hanging fruit of the past quarter century.

Canada's Vietnam

A classic mistake of business and government is trying to recover sunken costs, in Vietnam for example Lyndon Johnson had spent so much of the "cream of the nation's youth" that there was no possibility of turning back and dishonoring those who were lost.  Well, the tar sands of Alberta are Canada's Vietnam.  Steven Harper's Conservative Party is thoroughly out and discredited for the financial and ecological morass that development of the tars sands has created and TransCanada asking for the suspension of the Keystone XL Pipeline's review is part of the retreat.  Every barrel's extracted cost to tar sands operators is so under priced at today's market that they are slowing and eventually will stop because they can't take it anymore. Building the pipeline is like building the bridge to nowhere. Approval by the Obama Administration would just force TransCanada to cancel the proposal.

No Politician Creates Jobs

Paul Krugman's Partisan Growth Gaps makes a startling admission: Democrats don't know what makes the economy grow.  Republicans on the other hand don't know either but won't admit to it.  The truth is that a good healthy economy bubbles up from below in an unpredictable manner as to what will succeed and what won't.  Both parties fail with top down economic policies which can't consider the unpredictable and therefore are bad bets.  

The Kurds are not Interested in Empire

The administration made the decision after abandoning the Pentagon’s failed efforts to train its own rebel army to take on the Islamic State in Syria, and it underscored a shift toward reliance on Kurdish allies, the most effective forces working with the United States. In effect, the move is an experiment: Can the small contingent of American military personnel make a difference in guiding local fighters? If so, officials made it clear they would consider sending more Americans. (A covert train-and-equip effort run by the C.I.A. is still very much active.)

The first test is likely to come in Raqqa, the Islamic State’s stronghold in Syria. American officials hope the commandos will help the Kurds and Syrian Arab allies put pressure on the Islamic State, which is also known as ISIS, ISIL or Daesh, by cutting off routes into the city and targeting leaders. Eventually, they would try to recapture the city outright.

“Ultimately, Raqqa has to be retaken and returned to its citizens and to a decent way of life, which they’re not enjoying under the barbaric rule of ISIL now,” Defense Secretary Ashton B. Carter told reporters during a refueling stop in Alaska on his way to Asia.

The plan is missing the prime element, a political union to govern Al-Raqqah.  It was a Sunni, Shia and Christian city with no Kurdish.  The Kurds will not fight and then administer a city that is not their own and dissipate their effort of for a nation of their own to do the allies' bidding.  

Local not Federal

"I'm urging federal action," said Governor Andrew Cuomo, "because its the only way you can make a real difference." It's a statement that is pure Democrat and exactly one hundred and eighty degrees wrong!  Actually, as in most government initiatives, local can be effective while federal is useless.  New York City has the strongest local gun control regime in effect, Chicago doesn't.  If Cuomo tries to put something like New York's gun control federally it will force the city's control to the lowest common denominator, rural Illinois and worse.

Carried Interest

Mitt "Carried Interest" Romney explained to donors that 47% of Americans are takers.  

Republican Audit of 2012 Predicts Bad GOP Showing in 2016

Remember Karl Roves' disbelief on election night that Ohio wasn't going the GOP way as he had predicted?  Democrats were quietly comfortable because they had the better data for getting the voters who would vote their way out and leaving the others to fend for themselves.  Well, the same big data team is working for Hillary and the Republicans have no chance of doing the same because of time constraints and lack of intelligence, that is the preponderance of top and dumb down reliance on broadcast media rather than a granular poll driven campaign.  

Another One for Max Bialistock

Mel Brooks where are you?  I got a storyline that’s so bad that it’s too good.  First you take a political hack trolling the waters of evangelical conservative politics. let’s call him Dan Backer,  as in Dan’s has got your back. He works the southern political backwaters raising money for tea party candidates when a funny thing occurs to him when a candidate wins by landslide with the simple promise of stopping Hillary.

Wow, what a goldmine stopping Hillary is. Easy money to raise yet impossible to spend  because how and where do you really spend money to stop Hillary? it’s like Max Bialistock raising a vault full of cash from gullible little old ladies but unlike with Broadway there is no pay off required, no matter how many wrongs go horribly right.

Eating Its Own

"These groups stir people up on issues that don't exist or solutions that can't be achieved and hold members to impossible tests," said Representative Greg Walden of Oregon, the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, which raises money for candidates. "There needs to be an investigation into these groups . Where does the money go?"

It goes to maintain the lucrative business and life style of Dan Backer and his political consultancy that preys on the politically gullible, especially the aged.  Last year I blogged about a "Stop Hillary Now" solicitation an elderly relative of mine received which begged the question. Where could the solicited money be spent to stop Hillary?  Not to Congressman Trey Gowdy of South Carolina and chairman of the House Select Committee on Benghazi without causing a scandal.  Sure it could be used to raise additional money to celebrate Trey's and his other Republican committee members fight and raise even more money! Dan's bank account must be a thing to behold.      

Buereaucracies

     Volkswagen Suspends its Quality Control Manager gives the appearance of a house cleaning after the diesel scandal.  Appearance because a little reading shows that the person let go, Frank Tuch, is a recent hire from  Lotus and previously Porsche, both sports car companies with no diesels in their lineup.  Difficult to fathom Frank's involvement at the start of the emissions fraud and much easier to see his discomfort in protecting those who perpetrated it.
      Bureaucracies are funny in that sense.  Yesterday we see General Nagata as the head of our effort with the Syrian Rebel Support group, who ultimately recruited four (4) dudley dorights to fight for our cause, get promoted and issued a medal for his great success.
 

Business as Usual at D.O.D.

Failure of Syria Rebel Plan shows an analytical failure by the Department of Defense that is laughable yet as usual the general in charge gets bumped upstairs and handed a medal. What was admirable about Generals Jack Keane and David Petreaus was the out of the box analysis they brought to the surge in Iraq.  General Nagata on the other hand did what he was told with regard to Syrian Rebel Training without questioning the lack of local political unity and will backing the trainees because any competent counter terrorism analyst should have predicted a Bay of Pigs like failure of the plan.

The Pot Calling The Kettle Black

Trump has just brought up a beaut when questioning Jeb's assertion that his brother kept us secure.  9/11 happened on his watch.  He and his advisers ignored the warning signals just as Hillary did for the Bengazi. So ... Lets string them both up?

Bernie isn't a Socialist or Communist

Watching Bill Maher the other night trying to coax a label other than “Socialist” from Bernie Sanders lead to the Wikipedia article, “Nordic Model.”

The Nordic model (also called Nordic capitalism[1] or Nordic social democracy)[2][3] refers to the economic and social policies common to the Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway, Iceland and Sweden). This includes a combination of free market capitalism with a comprehensive welfare state and collective bargaining at the national level.[4][5]

Although there are significant differences among the Nordic countries, they all share some common traits. These include support for a "universalist" welfare state aimed specifically at enhancing individual autonomy and promoting social mobility; a corporatist system involving a tripartite arrangement where representatives of labor and employers negotiate wages and labor market policy mediated by the government;[6] and a commitment to widespread private ownership, free markets and free trade.[7]

It’s not Socialism because very little of the means of production are state owned, and certainly isn’t communist as Trump declares.  Bernie ought to call himself a Nordic Capitalist. It won’t get my vote but it better describes his politics.  

BTW Sweden’s decision not to save SAAB when General Motors went bankrupt despite a long and storied history with many employees in country came from a clear headed attitude that private enterprise is meant to support a welfare state and not vice versa. It’s worthy of admiration from afar by this observer in the land of corporate welfare.

Russian Bear Stirring up a Hornet's Nest

Untangling The Overlapping Conflicts in the Syrian War requires letting the various sects split away and support the only viable political union, the Kurdish and their pesh merga militia, and develop from scratch a functional Sunni political union from the Jordanian refugee camps. The picture of Sunni Muslims declaring "Russia Kills Us" in front of Russian Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon shows that Putin has really stepped into it by supporting Assad's failed political union of all of Syria.

Citizens United Not Withstanding

How the Presidential Candidates Have Raised and Spent is the political lesson of the 2016 Presidential campaign that the GOP won't learn, which is that a successful campaign requires many small donors.  Scott Walkers failed campaign had plenty of super PAC money but not enough regular donors to sustain field offices.  Ben Carson on the other hand has got huge small donor support to feed field offices to turn out his vote.  It's apparent that big money Jeb is going to starve like Walker and that no field office big money candidates like Cruz, Rubio and Fiorina will be very weak candidates against the Democrat back office juggernaut of either Clinton or Sanders.  Sanders by the way appears to have the winning campaign which draws many small donors, some who will provide sweat equity to the field offices, and committed voters.

I admire what Bernie is accomplishing and expect that Rand is working quietly in the weeds putting together a big small donor base and a young college back office just like his father did in previous campaigns because the big donor route is so totally elite and authoritarian.

The Country's Political problem is that Republicans are not the Ying to the Democrat's Yang

Are There Two Nations? One optimistic and the other pessimistic. I reject the Republican propensity to put up nonsensical issues that require more legislation, intervention and finally adjudication.  A loyal opposition would reduce government on every front and let Democrats be the party of more government.

Malinvestment

There is nothing like excess to shine a light on stupid investments.  The 2008 financial crisis in the United States was brought about by an excess in housing investment. In Canada today it is the investment in the oil sands of Alberta. Its a long tail investment upon which Stephen Harper's Conservative Party has hung its hat on and which will be looked upon as its denouement.

Campaign Fund Raising

From 158 Families, Half the Cash for the '16 Race is a scary headline that means nothing.  Consider how Jeb Bush has raised the most money with the least result then look at Bernie Sanders having raised money from more people donating than any other with the greatest result.  This is a bottom up, not a top down, election and those raising big money from just a few will fail, thank god.

An Incoherent Syria War Strategy

The initial plan was dubious. The new one is hallucinatory, and it is being rolled out as the war enters a more perilous phase now that Russia has significantly stepped up its military support of Mr. Assad’s forces.

I couldn't have said better myself

Ben Carson has a Point on Guns and Nazi Germany

When reading Sholzenitsyn's Gulag Archipelago I recall thinking how I wouldn't want to go quietly when the "Black Maria" arrived to arrest.  Individual gun ownership makes resistance to grossly authoritarian regimes viable and enforcement possibly lethal to the perpetrators.  The 2nd Amendment is the founding father's answer to Stalin and Hitler.

Afghanistan - A Wasted Effort

Latest Affront for Afghans in Kunduz makes it clear that once again that political dysfunction greased by corruption trumps the best laid plans to democratize and govern. Setbacks are sure to come as will be the useless calls for our re-engagement militarily. Useless because the military option does not change the political equation just as it doesn't in Iraq and Syria.

Retaking Raqqa, Good Luck With That

When ISIS took the city of Kobani in north west Syria, it over reached. Kobani being Kurdish lacked the Sunni sympathisers  that it required to maintain it's rule and so the retaking of Kobani was ninety nine percent because of the Kurdish desire for a homeland and very little to do with our air power.  Obama's renewed offensive against ISIS in the North of Syria will be successful in taking back Kurdish villages but Raqqa, a Sunni city to the west will not be taken back from ISIS using Kurdish fighters who lack an imperialist desire to expand beyond what they consider their homeland.  Without a strong Sunni political union to take the place of ISIS in Raqqa, a takeover is sure to end badly for the allies there.  

With Guns Act Locally

Its counterproductive to look to Washington on every issue other than foreign policy and defense, particularly guns.  If after Sandy Hook Connecticut elected to have a comprehensive gun training and licensing program similar to what we have for automobiles as a method of keeping track of "People who, when you think back, seemed off. Didn’t dress right. Kept to themselves. Were nursing a bitterness that smoldered inside of them.  And then they picked up guns and went out and killed as many as they could."  Then do it.  In retrospect it was unfortunate that Obama flew Sandy Hook's grieving parents to Washington on Air Force One in a federal show rather than to have encouraged them to lobby Connecticut's legislature for a local solution.

Joe Biden's Original Plan to Let Iraq Separate into its Tribes is Correct

Vali Nasr, dean of the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University and former Senior Adviser at The State Department, said there was a deepening sense in Iraq that "ISIS is a Sunni problem , not a Shia problem." He said that saving Anbar was not worth "the blood of our children."

What is it about Syria and Iraq that requires that they remain as countries as presently constituted? Letting both separate into their sectarian regions of Kurdish north, Shia south east, Sunni center and an Alawite  Shia enclave in the west north of Lebannon by the sea. It would pacify the region greatly.

Two Faced Holier than Though Germany

Ex-Chief of VW Not Under Investigation, Officials Say and Critics Link German Scandal to Government’s Close Ties With Industry are two very telling headlines.  If we think we have it bad in Washington with the revolving door between government and industry of elite cronies, well there is always Germany. How two faced of it to lead the Green charge to save the planet’s environment and exonerate its insiders who cynically cheat to pollute more.

Numbers Donating is much more Important than the Money collected

Figures are just coming out that Bernie Sanders collected small amounts from over one million individual donors. The the total collected of 26 million is just shy of what Hillary collected which was 28 million. One million people forking over hard earned money is much more valuable because its the basis of a volunteer group willing to provide sweat equity and do the follow up ground work that the big money candidates will have to pay through the nose for.  It's what Rand Paul is missing in comparison with his father's previous efforts where the money bombs were coming in from small donations. Not until Rand stops looking for quick cash and concentrates on a political muscle building diet that makes him different in the way he can to what the big money contributors suggest he do, such as defend Wall Street's carried interest sinecure.

Thomas Friedman - Syria, Obama and Putin

If we want something better — multisectarian democracy in Syria soon — we would have to go in and build it ourselves. The notion that it would only take arming more Syrian moderates is insane.

If a grand strategy to pacify the area accepts that Syria has to split up then let moderate Sunnis who fled Syria and now are in Jordanian refugee camps self develop a Syrian enclave on the border with Jordan protected and funded by the allies to expand north and westward so as to relieve Jordan and Europe of those fleeing political dysfunction.  Isolate and contain Assad in his Alawite enclave by the sea.  Fully fund and protect the Kurdish enclave in Northern Syria so it expands south and westward along the Turkish border and ignore Turkey's protestations.  Finally make life difficult for ISIS by starving it of oil revenues with the bombing of drilling and refining facilities.

Where Fools Rush In

Kerry Rushes In to Go Where Obama Will Not makes it apparent that the one flailing about jawing mindlessly is John Kerry.  Vladimir Putin's "this guy is a waste of time" look in this article's photograph says it all.  Putin is right in asking what happens after you take out Assad. Its the question that W never asked before taking out Saddam Hussein.  The long term strategy to pacify the region is not to take out Assad but to contain him and his Alawite tribe in their western enclave by the sea.

Amendment VIII

Excessive bail shall not be required, nor excessive fines  imposed, nor cruel and unusual punishments imposed.

Municipalities that feed off their citizens such as Ferguson Missouri should be tested in the Supreme Court for violating this primary and basic bill of right. Another municipal abuse is civil forfeiture without due process which renders the forfeiture as an excessive fine.

Flailing About with Iran and Russia

Secretary of State John Kerry sought on Saturday to draw Iran into the search for a political solution to the Syrian conflict is a disturbing headline. Disturbing that a political solution is being sought in a region without central governance.  How does diplomacy in Syria solve the crying need for functioning government?  Apparently the Administration doesn’t realize that without a strategy this playing with Iran and Russia on diplomatic optics showing engagement in Syria just feeds the cynical opportunism of Putin and the Ayatollah to pander to their domestic hardliners.
The grand strategy for the allies in the Middle East must be to pacify the region. This would lead to radical conclusion to let the various sects split out and form independent city states of like minded citizens. The allies should then concentrate on protecting the individual states from each other, such as blowing barrel bombing helicopters out of the sky.  A tactic toward this strategy would be to place the refugee camps in Jordan back into Syria to be protected and funded by the allies so that they may possibly develop workable political unions, similar to what the Kurdish people have, that marches in the direction of the grand strategy to pacify.

Gone - House Republicans from California

Kevin McCarthy Expected to Seek Speaker John Boehner's Post in the House will put an existential marker on the Republican Party when he is targeted by Democrats in his California district with a a heavy Latino demographic and loses his 2016 re-election.  After Trump there shouldn't be a Republican from California left in the House.  A Speaker of the House position lost because of a Hispanic landslide will be poetic justice and the beginning of the end of the Grand Old Party, emphasis on old, because Texas can't be far behind.

Ian Bremmer

I use Charlie Rose as a curator.  Ian Bremmer insights on the geopolitical situation were useful  because Charlie's repeated interviews made them credible.  Last night Bremmer's comment that that Marco Rubio and Graham Lyndsey were the two Republican candidates with viable foreign policy views destroyed that credibility to the point of putting in doubt everything he speaks of.

Oases, Enclave and Safe Haven

Former U.S. Commander Sharply Criticizes Syria Policy indicates that somewhere in the bowels of the foreign policy and military complex the idea that oases of moderate Sunni governance in Syria is being considered.  This comes from General Petraeus' opening statement before the Senate Armed Services Committee where he mentioned enclaves briefly.  Too briefly. It requires further elaboration.

Covering Shortfalls is not Enough

U.N. Funding Shortfalls and Cuts in Refugee Aid Fuel Flight to Europe shows the shortcoming causing the exodus from political dysfunction. To attract the refugees back to their homeland requires city states with sufficient governance to distribute scarce resources for the public good as well as police and adjudicate fairly.  Europe is a utopia to the refugees, something similar is necessary to convince them to return.

The GOP supports the hundred or so individuals that enjoy this carried interest sinecure at its peril

Grover Norquist of Americans for Tax Reform does his defund the government by starving the beast campaign no favor by supporting the financial elites carried interest tax dodge because one would have to question his motives. It’s an arcane loophole carved out of a complex code by accountants, lawyers and lobbyists working to line the pockets of super elite Wall Street rent seekers, Mitt Romney’s Bain Capital being a principal example.  Why would Norquist support this elite’s tax avoidance scheme unless he was being paid by moneyed interests to do it?  If the tax code was correctly interpreted then the slight increase in tax receipts to feed the beast is much less than the loss of populist appeal to his tax reform movement.  Donald Trump’s recent success on the campaign trail  comes from an admission that as an elite he has paid for his interests to be promoted in the corridors of influence.  He knows how the system works and his observation that he has friends making billions not paying taxes, resonates.  The GOP supports the hundred or so individuals that enjoy this carried interest sinecure at its peril and so does Grover.

Rand Paul in Last Night's Republican Talk Fest

Rand's consistent Constitution based  and long term view of American history is very reassuring.  Its a solid ideology that stands the test of time.  2016 may not work out but like Ronald Reagan, try and try again because eventually when you are proven to be consistently right, the chips fall in your in favor.

The money is Already there for the Oases Program

The rebel training program is putting the cart before the horse where Few U.S. Trained Syrians Still Fight ISIS, Senators are Told.  Four rebels for $500 million!  Even if these four Rambos win and takeover a town, what happens after the fight?  Even Daesh realizes you have to administer and deliver services to the regions under their control. The allies need capable political unions capable of governing where there is now a political vacuum.
Instead of funding this really dumb program, use $100 million to completely fund the U. N. World Food Program Syrian Refugee Camps in Jordan to immediately halt the migration into Europe.  The remaining $400 million would be a good start for funding the refugees to move the camps into Syria and begin self governed oases of city states of moderate Sunnis protected by Jordan's army and allied air forces. If others, Gulf States and Europe, would help to fund The Oases Project so that refugees get the money to personally commit to finance the housing built in Syria. With settlement, security and prosperity the beginnings of a capable political union, such as what the Kurdish have in Iraq, would eventually develop a militia with which the city states could expand their moderate governance north and westward so that Syrian refugees in Europe would return to their homeland.

The Man Who Would Be King

Its my favorite movie with Sean Connery and Michael Caine.  The new version starring Donald Trump, uh.... not so good.

Trust Me, It Will be Great

Whenever The Donald's answers a policy question with his usual trust me line, remember the devil is in the details.

Egypt Kills Mexican Tourists with Apache Helicopters

Troops' Mistake Kills Tourists and Imperils Egyptian Lifeline is not an unexpected result when we hand over weapons that are actually fomenting revolution rather than quelling it.  It's so predictable that General Sisi will fall to an virulently anti American Muslim Brotherhood, yet Obama yields to the insanity of supporting a regime that will prove to once again to Muslim radicals that yes, we are the Great Satan.
Barack, call up Jimmy Carter and ask him how two faced it felt like to have called the Shah of Iran a great ally and bulwark of stability months before he fell and Iran became our implacable enemy. As our best post President he will probably give you a very cogent answer.  Call him before he goes.

The Oases Program

“The cash-strapped World Food Program has had to drop one-third of Syrian refugees from its food voucher program in Middle Eastern host countries this year, including 229,000 in Jordan who stopped receiving food aid in September,”  a U.N. spokeswoman reported recently. This cash shortage has been evident all year causing a good portion of the migration to Europe.  Today’s headline is that Germany orders curbs at the border to manage the receipt of a  million refugees.  Its an impossible situation with a conundrum between the humanitarian need to accommodate those fleeing government dysfunction and the danger of domestic reaction to the influx of so many strangers in homogeneous societies.  Scandinavian countries considered models of generosity and civility are so small and the numbers of refugees choosing to go there so large that an alternative has to be found or it will end badly.  Badly as the July 2011 slaughter at a Norwegian Youth Camp by a deranged right wing extremist deploring  Norway’s acceptance of outsiders.  Denmark is already showing its counter reaction. Germany’s  huge influx of immigrants has a simmering nativist reaction that is sure to come to an ugly boil.  For self preservation this hand wringing has got to stop and the humanitarian alternative found that doesn’t leave dead refugees on the beach.  The alternative is to create oases of sanity in the regions of political dysfunction, starting with Syria.

Norway has a giant oil trust funding a tiny population’s future.  They should divert some of those oil receipts to overfund the U. N.’s World Food Program immediately and make Jordan’s refugee camps an attractive destination for those fleeing from dysfunction.  I leave it to Norway for this quick salve to the problem while the EU spends to house and feed migrants already in Europe and the allies to develop and fund a long term oases making project.

Jordan as a country has enough on its hands domestically that the Syrian refugee camps are looked on with alarm.  Rather than have our Department of Defense work on it’s useless recruitment campaign for Syrian rebels without a political base, let it work on a project to create protected oases on the South Eastern border by moving the Jordanian refugee camps into Syria! The legalities of such of an endeavour are debatable, but so is the legality of the Assad regime.  Jordanian troops and allied air forces would protect these camps as they develop into city states which over time self govern and police themselves with nascent self developed political unions.  Ultimately a loyal militia would arise with which to expand West and North.  Oasis making requires a giant spigot of cash to the people.  The U.N.’s program in Jordan gives the refugee families debit cards with which it distributes cash to them so that they can buy the food and services they choose.  The oasis program would use a version of this system so that housing of the new city states is funded by the cash in the refugee’s hands and less so from bureaucrat cake eaters.

The oasis creation program would not get the full U. N. security council’s approval because of sovereignty issues as well Russia’s resistance in support of the current regime. The project has to be an allied effort.  Funding by the U.S. could come from eliminating and defunding a carrier task force whose air power in this region is proving to be counterproductive. Other oil rich states in the region with a preference to check writing versus taking in refugees should help fund the projects.  A benefit of free market prosperity engendered by the debit card system are bottoms up economies that pacify with entrepreneurship and trade.  If the southeastern program in Syria develops good momentum then the northeast region below Turkey could do the same with the Kurds.  Assad and his Alawite tribe could retreat to the sea North of Lebanon and thereby separate Syria into four distinct regions; a moderate Sunni south, Kurdish north, Alawite west and a radical Sunni center.  As each oasis prospers with self rule and allied protection the fractious center is contained and diminishes with expanding moderate city states of refugees returning from Europe.

A grand strategy to pacify the Middle East  requires a recognition that a sane society comes from political unions that deliver scarce resources for the greatest public good. Military might that is not followed up with a strong government that administers, polices and adjudicates effectively accomplishes nothing.  The cost of funding oases of sanity is minor in comparison to Europe’s expense to house, feed and assimilate migrants.  Over the long term these oases will develop political unions to serve its people effectively so they can fully take over their development and security and prove to be attractive to people longing to return to their homeland and thereby relieve the pressure on Europe.