#Libertarians recognize Probabilities from conjecture are just stories and should be explained as such, #Authoritarians don't

Thinking about Julian Sanchez's "Why do Intellectuals Support Government Solutions?" with David Leonhardt's probabilities opinion piece "What I was Wrong About this Year" and I come up with data points. What's great about big data in marketing is the continual vote taking in the market and success is measured in sales. But how to measure success or failure while navigating through issues of war and peace?  The truth is that there can't be expertise without solid data points and the example of the Israeli Intelligence service giving the estimate of a 10% probability of war with Syria is a figure pulled out the air. Explaining the probability as a story is correct because that is what it is. (BTW I think Michael Lewis's The Undoing Project  is the most thought provoking read of the millennia.) And with regard to intellectuals imposing their thoughts on the public I think its best examined by William Easterly's The Tyrrany of Experts 

Tech has too much cash, hopefully with tax bill they consider distributing it

Ignoring the Tech Tsunami doesn't address the problem of too much cash which the tax bill may help in its distribution.  Too much cash, how can that be a problem? First and foremost the static return on the outstanding cash diminishes earnings growth.  Secondly, managing that cash changes the corporate culture as prudent CFO's rather than risk taking innovators rise in the hierarchy. Finally there is no need for so much cash because tech investments only require a few billion dollars, literally pocket change, and the danger from too much cash is that the company strays from its core competency and buys something stupid. With this new tax bill rich tech should consider dividend distributions to reduce their cash positions to one year's earning and let the shareholders find other investment opportunities.       

Ben Franklin's little truism and Germany's misapplied search for moral authority

“For the want of a nail the shoe was lost,

For the want of a shoe the horse was lost,

For the want of a horse the rider was lost,

For the want of a rider the battle was lost,

For the want of a battle the kingdom was lost,

And all for the want of a horseshoe-nail”

Germany’s basic law of asylum created as penance for the Nazi holocaust perpetrated on the world years earlier was misapplied in an altruistic search for moral authority only to ignite nationalist excesses in all of Europe. Misapplied because the law was not meant to cause a mass migration. Germany made itself the nirvana at the end of a trek of unspeakable hardships and has put upon nations without means the obligation to shelter, transport and police refugees making their way through.  All for the want of the United Nations Food Aid to Syrian refugee camps in Jordan left unfunded in 2014. At very little cost in comparison, Germany could have made these camps the nirvana Sunni refugees fleeing al-Assad’s Alawite tyranny could trek to and then organize and invade Syria in an Exodus like manner to establish their own city states along the Jordanian border as sanctuary. Rather than budget on accepting another two hundred thousand refugees this year maybe Germany should consider using the money on a Jordanian plan to divert the flow and and possibly attract some of those in Germany back to Syria as well, and thereby dampen those ugly fires in Europe.

Merkel's quandary result of innumeracy. Macron understands numbers, he should use it

Merkel's quandary is the result a long list of decisions of an innumerate, someone who doesn't comprehend numbers, coming to roost. Make Germany the safe haven for all of the world's dispossessed  will be made to work somehow but forget about your put upon neighbors and the death toll and privations suffered by those making the trek to nirvana.  Go ahead with a policy decision to reduce carbon emissions combined with an emotional decision to eliminate nuclear facilities so as to find emissions increasing because utilities are forced to burn the cheapest dirtiest coal available to reduce costs and cover hopelessly lost investments and then lead  trade missions to California where you complain that air quality standards for auto emissions are too hard for VW's cheating diesels. President Macron understands mathematics. He can save his term, France and possibly Europe by using it.

My interview with Charlie Rose, well, not really

Charlie:    Vincent Arguimbau is a Libertarian commentator on business and foreign affairs despite having read the New York Times from cover to cover for over fifty years. He argues that business is easy to understand compare to foreign affairs which has no real markers from which to score success or failure.  He uses a Realpolitik lense to consider alternatives to our recent penchant for military intervention and interminable wars. I am proud to have him here for the first time. I see you were reading The Times when you were at Carolina.

Vincent:   Yes. I remember Jesse Helms, who was the local Rush Limbaugh before going on to be U.S. Senator from North Carolina, called Chapel Hill,  Communist Hill.  As a Goldwater Republican I thought he had a weak grasp of his ideology if he thought it couldn’t withstand the study of another.  At that time I wasn’t a Nixon supporter nor vehemently anti the Vietnam War, most likely because of a high number in the draft lottery, but I read about and admired the opening to China.  Reading Kissinger’s book later in the decade gave me a basic grasp of Realpolitik which has been bouncing around in my head for decades.

Charlie:   Wasn’t Realpolitik discredited for you with Kissinger’s apparent approval  of the coup in Chile which murdered President Salvador Allende and thousands of his young socialist supporters?

Vincent:   No, South America is not a Realpolitik arena because it has no hegemonic powers. On the other hand the China opening was an assessment it was a power with which we needed to accommodate despite having to give up Taiwan, a loyal friend and ally  Understanding and accommodating regional powers has a pacifying tension reducing effect which is certainly better than declaring a power as an implacable enemy, such as we do with Iran today.

Charlie:   You want to understand and accommodate Iran?

Vincent:   Yes, you of all people you should agree. I found your interviews with Iran’s nuclear deal negotiator Javad Sharif to be with a person speaking for country with a strong will to protect their own yet reasonable.  Iran went through a horrific war with Saddam Hussein’s Iraq so  calling Iran an implacable enemy gets us nothing while understanding their need for security and their local advantage over ours would go a long way toward drawing down our wasted military effort in the region.

Charlie:    Such as?

Vincent:   Well this is where I go far afield in the diplomatic sense by considering the balkanization of region.  I mean if a regime is dysfunctional why respect the whimsically drawn up borders that pit antagonist tribes against each other?  It’s a simple view but when George W. Bush toppled Saddam Hussein he took out the regime that held Iraq together. General Petraeus’ counterinsurgency identified and paid local Sunni tribal leaders to bring Iraq back to normalcy but then al-Maliki’s Shiite Baghdad destroyed all that good work and made impossible to reconcile the various tribes to unite again because there is no trust nor vision of nationhood. And in Syria Bashar al-Assad has lost control of so much that I consider it balkanized already.  I think that Iran can feel secure with a balkanized middle east, especially those parts on its border. So let it happen. Of all the players in the region it’s the Kurds who have a strong will for nationhood. We should support their effort for nationhood because they pacify regions with a functioning politic that polices and administers well.

Charlie:     And the rest of Iraq and Syria?

Vincent:    Nothing we can do. Iran will take care of Shiite Iraq and Alawite Syria.  The recent clearing out of ISIS in Sunni cities of Syria and Iraq breaks the alliances that were formed to take out the common enemy and leaves these areas at a point of great and indeterminate turmoil where the U.S. has no influence and Iran will only aggravate if they try to overreach and quell Sunni rebels.  I could see Turkey annexing part of Syria from the North and Jordan from the South. Bashar will cry that he has been invaded but who cares?

Charlie:    You are suggesting Turkey and Jordan invade Syria?

Vincent:   Well, they are functioning politics that are more likely to pacify Sunni Rebels than any other scenario.  But who am I to suggest.

Charlie:    And what about our alliance with Saudi Arabia?

Vincent:   Please please don’t get me started. Well okay let’s start with the Shah of Iran. Back in the 70’s I remember President Carter speaking of the Shah of Iran as the linchpin of security in the Middle East.  He was King, he was authoritarian and he promised security. No need for our CIA to investigate anything independently, the Shah was in charge and would provide the complete picture.  That’s the way it is today with Saudi Arabia and their proxy in Egypt's General Sisi.  It’s apparent all our CIA analysis has a Saudi slant to it. Your interviews, for example,  with Mike Morrell show a Sunni bias which I believe permeates our intelligence community. I say it’s like the Shah of Iran because the Saudi Kingdom is about to implode now that the last of Saud’s sons, the youngest, has named one of his sons to be next in line among a thousand prince pretenders, many the sons of the forty older more illustrious predecessors to the current King. In the near future we may have a Sunni Kingdom and their proxies against us along with a huge arsenal of our weapons. In the meantime this ally showing our establishment the way in the Middle East is proving to be highly irrational and chaotic.  Its to the point that we should prefer an enemy we understand to a friend pursuing an emotional religious vendetta.

Charlie:    So do what?

Vincent:   Stop taking sides in the Sunni Shiite divide in Islam and disengage with Saudi Arabia before it’s done for us by regime change.

Charlie:    Anywhere else we should apply Realpolitik as you understand it?

Vincent:   Well, yes back to China where Realpolitik was first applied by Nixon and Kissinger.  It seems to me that unilateral engagement with North Korea is pointless. A distant hegemonic power such as ours doesn’t do well when trying to influence a client of China, the local hegemon. The Kid playing nuclear matchsticks is China’s existential threat, not ours.  It’s our job to show China their real threat and use our real lever of power, denial of the One China understanding that came with the opening of China to make them understand they have to take out The Kid.  Frankly for all of its authoritarianism it’s difficult to understand how they could have let loose such a dangerous and independent outlier. Xi Jinping’s authority comes from the economic progress he promises for China but The Kid puts that progress in jeopardy with the threat of a possible nuclear exchange right in the heart of the tech logistics chain, best described by Tom Friedman in his book The World is Flat, that fuels it. Tom Cook at Apple has got to look at the risk and tell Foxconn, the Taiwanese subcontractor, that they need another assembly chain away from a possible holocaust zone. Hopefully it brings tech manufacturing back to the U.S., but not necessarily.  What is necessary though is an independent Taiwan that could transplant the Southeast Asia logistics machine elsewhere, India for example, which under One China would be difficult.  Another curiosity is how China’s military is growing yet without a clear vision of what it is for.  It shouldn’t be for harassing Japan, South Korea and Vietnam but for securing the logistics chain their economy is so dependent on.  For China to have a temper tantrum with South Korea over U.S. deployed THAAD missiles is ludicrous. South Korea's Samsung provides 35% of the value of an IPhone assembled in China, what does North Korea contribute?  China does not recognize who its real enemy is and its Realpolitik to educate them.

Charlie:   And what’s Libertarian about Realpolitik?

Vincent:  Hubris.  Take away the the conceit that we know best and can manage from the top down. Primarily it’s a State Department that takes the Hippocratic Oath of “first do no harm.” Why? Because foreign affairs is at the level of medicine hundreds years ago where bloodletting was thought to be a good prescription.  Understand that our levers of power are few and weak and only effective against other hegemonic powers. Military power has to be credible to keep hegemons in check but best not used, certainly not for ephemeral issues mentioned in State’s daily briefings. Briefings which force State to take positions without solutions which then make them consider the military option because it's available. We need a State Department that believes we are without the military option when dealing with less than hegemons.

Charlie:  And so with Russia?

Vincent:  Exactly, resist hegemonic expansion in the Ukraine in support of Europe is Realpolitik in action.

Charlie:  And President Trump’s embrace of Putin?

Vincent:  He is such an unthinking blowhard that doesn’t realize how he steps on his own argument, sometime in the same sentence, that there is no need to understand what he says or does. It baffles me that media bothers to attend a Sarah Huckabee Sanders briefing.  I have taken solace on one thing about Trump, which is he gives progressives a great reason to reject one size fits all solutions and embrace Federalism.

Charlie:   How so?

Vincent:  When FDR tried solving The Great Depression with the New Deal he used central government control over our Constitution’s federalism.  While the New Deal wasn’t convincing the successful prosecution of World War II gave big central government control a patina of goodness and competence on which it has been riding for decades.  But the assumption was that the levers of power would always be managed by good and competent people. Trump has shown what a nightmare it can be when you hand those levers over to the Devil.  The split in the United States is between urban and rural. Federalism provides a framework under which urban groups can develop and fund programs to further their needs and leave rural areas, where those policies won’t work, alone.

Charlie:    And you feel good about that?

Vincent:  Yes, we have a Man Who Would Be King up against our Constitution that can ignore him because it has this framework of distributed power power that so perfectly adapts to a World is Flat hierarchy.

Charlie:   On that note we have to leave because of time.

Vincent:   Thank you Charlie.

U.S. perspective Iran implacable enemy for discredit chaos forming Saudi Kingdom for praise

Iran sent them to Syria, Now Afghan Fighters are a Worry at Home is such a slanted headline that I had to read it several times and still can't understand the curve the argument takes from its beginning to end on this New York Times, our nations newspaper of record, article. The danger in Afghanistan are the Sunni terrorists not Iran's revolutionary guard. Iran clearly does not want chaos on their Eastern border so it actually supports Kabul, as the article is loathed to admit. But the writing on the wall indicates alternatives need to be considered because the Taliban despite their being despicable Sunnis are likely to prevail under their considered judgment.  As for the Revolutionary Guard, where are the local Shiites they could reinforce in Afghanistan such as in al Maliki's Iraq, al Assad's Alawite Syria or Hezbollah in Lebanon?  The point being that from official U.S. perspective Iran is an implacable enemy to be discredited and chaos forming Saudi Kingdom is to be praised both beyond reason, however, I don't recall any involvement by Iranians in the 9/11 terror attack on the twin towers. 

Xi Jinping ascends rank Chairman Mao despite existential threat to economy

For all of Premier Xi Jinping’s recent self congratulatory ascension to the ranks of Chairman Mao he has let grow an existential threat to his region’s fast growing economy, one which can not falter and thereby deprive him the legitimacy to his authoritarian rule.  For a variety of legacy reasons China has let  North Korea’s nuclear capability grow to a fearful point of resolution, one which grows ever more fearful as the radius of possible destruction grows wider.  As the nation with the most to lose it is up to China to take out the Kid Playing with Nuclear Matchsticks.   

President Richard Nixon and his Secretary of State Henry Kissinger opened China with a pure Realpolitik play replacing Taiwan with Communist China in the United Nations thereby summarily dropping a long standing friend and ally for a practical realignment to reality. Today the United States should deny this original One China understanding because Beijing is not worthy.  For all of its military muscle flexing in the South China Seas, Sea of Japan and ocean oil fields of Vietnam, they apparently have no understanding that military power is not for causing trouble in the neighborhood but to secure the region’s high tech logistics chain fueling its economy.  The recent temper tantrum over U.S. deployed THAAD missiles in South Korea shows an incomprehensible blindness by leadership as to what is important to China’s economy, which among other things is South Korea’s tech industry.  A cursory look at an Apple IPhone’s content shows 25% of its value is from South Korea, 35% from Japan and many other percent from countries in the region, excepting North Korea. The Logistics chain feeding the factory in China assembling these components crisscrosses a five hundred mile radius around Pyongyang. If The Kid should inadvertently cause an exchange of atomic arms in the region then, putting the holocaust aside,  Apple would be forced to relocate production elsewhere and diminish China’s tech industry, a diminishing of the very engine that can not falter for Jinping.

Bringing Taiwan back into the fold of valued ally is not for spite, rather a defense for the Tech Industry.  Foxconn is the Taiwanese company used by the likes of Apple and others to contract assemble the different components of the great South East Asia Logistics machine. For the industry’s security some production and assembly has to be taken out of the region and an independent Taiwan is best suited to arrange it.  

China’s temper tantrum over THAAD notwithstanding, if the kid keeps on threatening it is clear that Japan, Taiwan, India and for good measure even Vietnam might consider U.S. deployed defense missiles be placed in their countries.  Not until Xi takes out the kid and shows an understanding of the purpose of power can the world trust China’s hegemony.  If he musters the necessary courage than he transforms it into a useful rather than trouble making one, a  courage to make One China a worthy ally for peace and security which the U.S. could support by taking back the no longer needed defensive missiles deployed in the region.

 

Job of dignified branch to win the people the efficient branch to run the country

Walter Bagehot would have loathed government by referendum is archived here because its good.

Trump's dumb ass government at work caused deaths of four military advisers in Niger

President of Chad Idriss Deby is an Authoritarian, but he leads a very good military keeping order in Mali, Niger and Nigeria as well as in his own country.  Its gotten so that both the French and U. S.  base their military outpost for the region in Chad. Rachel Maddow last night uncovered a really interesting point that the recent declaring of Chad as a North Korea and Venezuela outlaw state from which no visa will be issued caused the retrenching of Chad forces  and made possible the recent ambush and deaths of four American military advisers on what was thought to be a no conflict patrol in Niger.

The power struggle in Raqqa among Sunni rebels will mutate into another ISIS

Inside Raqqa With Fighters Who Faced ISIS shows the defeat of the Sunni Arab Caliphate by a coalition of Syrian Kurdish pesh merga and Sunni rebels to the Bashar al Assad Shiite regime. It's a conquest that has no hand off toward a moderate politic.  The Kurdish retrieval of the Kurdish city of Kobani East of Raqqa from the Caliphate was sustainable because of the Kurd's moderate politic, but Raqqa is not Kurdish nor are they welcome to govern the city.  The political power struggle among the various Sunni rebels to govern Raqqa is sure to mutate into another terrorist group.    

Kurdish nationhood would take out a big swath of instability in the region

Supporting Kurdish nationhood goes beyond fairness to understanding that they have the political unity to pacify the region. Their pesh merga militia independently took back the Syrian city of Kobani from ISIS in 2015.  Kobani is a Kurdish city and was a difficult hold for a Sunni Arab overlord trying to govern a population of non brethrens fighting for nationhood.  It was an example of a moderate politic defeating an extreme one.  It caught the eye of the U.S. military as the weapon to defeat radical Islamists.  As usual with our military interventions is the lack of thought given to what happens after winning the battle.  Conquest leave a political vacuum. While diplomatically inconvenient Kurdish nationhood brings a moderate self sustaining politic to fill the void in large parts of Iraq and Syria. Now that the bonds of those whose enemy is my enemy dissolve with the vanquishing of the common enemy the region will once again go back to tribal factions. Kurdish nationhood would take out a big swath of instability in the region.

Propose joint tour by Ross & Mattis promoting U.S. location and opening armory

Its depressing to watch Congressman Ron DeSantis of Florida on CNBC SQUAWK BOX this morning reaffirming a policy of direct North Korean confrontation rather than looking at Southeast Asia region and China's contention that it is in their sphere of influence. The question is, influence to do what?  Logically it would be to secure the regions tech logistics chain that draws in raw materials and finished components fueling China's economic growth.  Apparently the logic that Kim Jong Un is an existential threat to their prosperity is not understood by General Secretary Xi Jinping so the best U.S. policy would be to make it clear.
Have Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross and Secretary of Defense James Mattis make a joint Southeast Asia tour through Taiwan, South Korea, Japan and others.  One promoting the U.S. as a safe place for production and assembly for those country's tech companies to have up and running should a nuclear holocaust breakout disrupting any source within a thousand mile radius of Pyongyang.  The other opening the door to America's armory so that those nations can protect themselves from the rogue bully that China won't take out,        

Foxconn should push more clients to assemble and produce in U.S. away from Rocketman

Despite its admirable democratic evolution, Taiwan receives precious little recognition. With Xi Jinping's failure to take out the rogue neighborhood bully playing with nuclear matchsticks putting the region in existential jeopardy, the U.S. should forget the one China it agreed to back in the Nixon era. We should open up our arsenal to Taiwan so it can protect itself and since the kid is putting the region's tech logistics chain in jeopardy, Company's such as Foxconn should push more of their clients to produce and assemble tech item in the U.S. and away  from the North Korean danger  zone, one that has a thousand mile radius from Pyongyang.  

Connecticut in a Greek like debt corner it can't get out of

Connecticut has painted itself into a debt corner leaving it with no option but to raise taxes and cut services for the next generation.

Nuclear exchange existential threat to Tech Logistics Chain fueling China's economy

China’s smartphone makers rely heavily on South Korean chip producers such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix for chips to expand memory capacity in phones. In the first eight months of this year, China imported $23 billion worth of semiconductors from South Korea, half again as much as a year ago, according to the Korea International Trade Association.

Ken Burns' Vietnam series exposes the genesis of the term 'credibility gap'

Ken Burns' Vietnam series exposes the genesis of the term "credibility gap" which knocked the Administrative State off its pedestal of competence achieved by the successful prosecution of World War II. A great sacrifice being asked requires a credible vision.  Official statements that prove not to be true ate away at Johnson's War on Poverty as well as in Vietnam.  And it snowballed into Ronald Reagan's 1980 campaign quip about the scariest words in the English language; "I'm from government, I'm here to help."  

What can Congress do about the Equifax credit crisis?

The recent new that the credit agency Equifax was hacked and let 143 million individual accounts in the U.S. be compromised means after weeding out children and those who have no credit that everyone’s account is at risk. It’s not short lived either because individuals can not change their social security numbers much less their date of birth and other corresponding data which vets their rating. It’s a credit crisis that requires a resolution.  Many will contact their Congressman, actually I did, and ask for government to just do something.

Upon reflection the problem is one of Governing the Commons. The Commons being public grasslands which were overused and abused by farmers who let their livestock eat everything because their was no ownership to promote sustainable grazing. Equifax is one of those careless farmers who has no regard for people’s credit because they gather big data and sell the information to creditors. So creditors are the customers whose only recourse is to drop one and use another. Equifax will be abandoned and probably be litigated out of business as it’s difficult to believe they have any friends left. Nevertheless what can Congress do about this credit crisis?

A simple suggestion would be to require every creditor to give the consumer the choice of credit agency to vet their application.  Let the consumer see three agencies: Experian, Transunion and Innovis to substitute Equifax, listed with a check box next to each name.  Have it be a prominent part of the weasel word section and requiring the consumer mark it and initial the marking so they get some ownership control over their identity.  Whichever one is selected is then contracted by the creditor to supply the information. With this simple change credit agencies will consider consumers as their customer so that one can envision television commercials from Transunion or Experian much like Visa or Mastercharge does to promote the use of their cards. While the service is free to consumers the agencies can upsell sell their services and security features. The positive from this change is that it will make the industry much more attentive to those whose history has been taken over by criminals, something which none of the majors has been great about and it should drive Equifax out of business.

Require consumer specifies which credit info gatherer to use

The credit information gatherers, Experian, TransUnion, Equifax and the like, mine an asset that has no ownership, much like the commons are grasslands abused by farmers because there is no owner with a long term vision to sustain it. The Equifax breaches are an example of carelessness coming from an unfettered use and abuse of an asset without an owner. But there are concerned customers who issue mortgages and leases that now have to contend with a complete data set put into criminal hands with a useful half life of a decade at least.  Just for this reason everyone of Equifax's customer ought to abandon them because their carelessness which will make their transactions more difficult in the future. They should be made an example of by litigating it out of existence.  But as for the problem of data in the wrong hands the fact that individuals have no ownership over the data collected needs to be explored as a mean of securing information. A possible solution is to require the consumer specifies which gatherer to use when applying for credit.

Support Kurdish nationhood abandon Shiites to Iran and Sunnis to Turkey

As Islamic State Withers, The Alliance Against it is Fraying which is as you would expect with 'your enemy is my enemy' accords where the old enemy is diminished making previous antagonisms apparent.  This article makes the statement that Iran and its allies  have the upper hand, as if that wrapped up the debate about working with Iran to further pacify the region.  Iran is tolerant of the Kurdish so that their nationhood in parts of Iraq and Syria is viable as long as American support for Kurdistan is economic. Otherwise abandon the rest of it leaving Sunnis to Turkey and Shias to Iran to more or less dominate.  

Xi Jinping and Donald Trump are authoritarians failing at their promise for growth

The Invidia Huang Silicon Valley story makes clear how important free and open expression is to the creative process and how authoritarians such as Xi Jinping of China effort to control the press and Donald Trump's effort to reduce immigration throw cold water on hot economic growth. China's government has a pact with its people to grow the economy at a high rate and float more boats.  It's the same pack Trump appears to have made with his supporters. In both cases they are failing and momentum has not yet made their failure apparent.

The tribes of Afghanistan will work it out

The Empire Stopper makes apparent the tribal quagmire that Afghanistan is and Erik Prince's A Third Way in Afghanistan  misunderstands the CIA's success was from working with tribal leaders to counter the Taliban's centralizing effort and that his mercenaries will fail because of the mission which is to defend a dysfunctional Kabul central government.  The plaintive town's person plea to "please leave" in War Machine  with Brad Pitt depicting McCrystal is hauntingly correct. The tribes of Afghanistan will work it out. If one gets out line and the others want to coordinate an American airstrike to keep them in line then that's different and all we are good for.

Evangelical Panel should have been first to resign over Nazi Christian Soldiers

Seeing Jerry Falwell Jr. trying to defend Trump’s mention of good people among the White Supremacist brings to mind the great Christian failure to teachout racism. Teach it out because discrimination is antithetical to the teachings of Christ. That the business groups advising Trump disbanded but Falwell’s Evangelical Panel remains speaks volumes.  It seems to be me that they should have been the first to withdraw and the first to denounce the Nazis claiming to be Christian soldiers.                       

Experts imposing their will on communities that later turns out to be wrong

If there is one lesson from the 20th century worth learning, it is that an exclusive focus on the defense of liberal fundamentals against a supposed totalitarian peril often exacerbates the social and international conflicts it seeks to resolve. This approach to politics threatens to widen the already yawning gulf between liberal groups and their opponents, while distracting from the deeply rooted forces that have been fueling right-wing populist politics, notably economic inequalities and status resentments.

The above comes from Moyn and Priestland's editorial today in the Sunday New York Times which I best explain as the tyranny of experts imposing a will on individuals and communities which over time has proven to be mistaken. For an example of a nonpartisan health issue let's use the sugar lobby funding research that labels fat as bad suggesting that it's intake in the diet should be reduced with fat free, oh by the way many made from sugar, alternatives. Our government's experts, The Food and Drug Administration, then go out and promote low fat diets and create an obesity epidemic.  Oops, now sugar is the culprit, and the FDA the dummy who had a hand in shortening and ruining thousands of lives. Get the picture about experts? They aren't. It's the same in foreign policy and finance.   

Trump's Washington paralysis forcing awareness of State power. Jerry Brown gets it

How American Politics Went Insane is a podcast interview of Jonathan Rauch where he speaks of the demise of machine politics and its central command and control discipline to moderate and drive debate to the political center.  Now politics is fragmented and Washington unworkable. Rather than wishing for what was he should look around and consider what has happened to other institutions, such as network nightly news,  whose hierarchies have leveled and power dispersed for the last twenty years. Ron Chernow's Hamilton  and Henry Adam's History of the United States show the  political scene in our country's early years as rampant with fake news and vain glorious individuals who make our current political debate look tame. The difference was that Federal government was in its infancy with little influence and power and it was for the States to resolve political issues locally. Its called Federalism. Trump's tweet storm paralyzing Washington today is forcing awareness of State power. Governor Jerry Brown of California is the first to recognize it.

We have come full circle to the condition our forefathers found when devising Federalism

Our founding fathers had an expansive geography and dispersed populations from which to form a government. So they devised a framework from which faraway states could resolve local issues in a coordinated yet self developed manner. This splitting of power between central and state governments is called Federalism despite that the original Federalist,  Alexander Hamilton, had an inclination for central governance.  As a century passed communication improved and businesses used it to grow large command and control hierarchies that government felt compelled to imitate when trying to solve the Great Depression. Big government really came into its own with its successful prosecution of World War II which gave an afterglow of goodness and effectiveness to which it rode to a zenith with the implementation of LBJ’s Great Society.  Then came the reaction best expressed by Ronald Reagan in his 1980 election campaign as the scariest words in the English language: “I’m from government, I’m here to help.” By the new millennia many institutions with command and control structures were replaced by flat dispersed ones coming full circle to the condition our forefathers found and which now frays the bonds of the last holdout, our government in Washington.

Federal over State authority has always been tempered with a need to cooperate where today States legalize Marijuana understanding Washington has the law to stop it but which the Justice Department chooses not to pursue and thereby antagonize. Today's departments and agencies are further tested by Governor Jerry Brown of California. First he popped EPA Secretary Scott Pruitt’s trial balloon to relax fuel economy standards by insisting California’s will remain and since his market is most important to automakers he effectively trumped Trump. This skirmish so emboldened the Governor that he now circumvents the State Department to assure world leaders that California will counter Washington’s pullback from the Paris Climate Accord. And with regard to immigration one can only  imagine the hamstringing of Homeland Security’s ICE division perpetrated by the Governor for a State with an economic need for immigrants.

Meddlesome top down thinking types believe that States are incapable of legislating and then implementing beneficent social programs on their own. But  in 2006 Massachusetts passed a health plan under Republican Governor Mitt Romney’s watch. It was legislated in State with local support rather than in Washington where support can be scattered and resistance easy to drum up. What the last Presidential election made clear is that the electorate is tired of Washington’s one size fits all solutions to unclear market deficiencies. For Congress to restore trust in government, government must first trust the people know, even in their ignorance, what’s best for themselves. This is particularly so for Democrats who yearn for the blunt instrument of the FDR era which now does little more than dole out favors to rent seekers who know adding to the labyrinth of laws and regulation enhances their monopoly pricing power.

Shiite Iran allies Sunni Taliban, Saudi Arabia continues holy war against brethren

Iran Flexes in Afghanistan as U.S. Presence Wanes clarifies how strong the urge to dominate and thereby secure the neighborhood from falling into enemy hands that Shiite Tehran is willing to forget Sunni Taliban murders of Iranians and work with them. Contrast its primordial need for security with Saudi Arabia's emotional holy war against their brethren in Islam.

Not logical for China to tolerate threat of nuclear conflagration on iPhone's logistic chain

An analysis of the components of an iPhone assembled in China shows 34% from Japan, 13% from South Korea and 25% from various others ranging from Mongolia to Malaysia. The point is that its a logistics chain on which China is very dependent for economic growth. A growth that is an essential part of fulfilling the leadership's bargain with its people.  It's logical that the leadership builds up a military to protect this valuable economic engine. What is not logical is its tolerance for the Kid Playing with Nuclear Match Sticks threatening the neighborhood with a conflagration that would be an incalculable set back for the region.

China funds Artificial Intelligence yet stifles free expression required for its development

China Sets Goal to Lead In Artificial Intelligence is a top down directive for development  by an authoritarian government that on the other hand is set on stifling free expression. Its ideas and new ways of thinking that make AI progress, not lack of funding. While it sounds ominous this initiative is doomed to fizzle out like those 1980's Japanese Industrial Policies that looked like they would take over but lead to a thirty years now depression.

The futility of U.S. meddling within Islam's Sunni Shiite divide

How Iran Dominated in Iraq After U.S. 'Handed' It Over is a real eye opener, particularly to the futility of U.S. meddling within Islam's Sunni Shiite divide.

Accepting least bad option over North Korea okay for U.S., not so for China

For the U.S. acceptance of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal may be the least bad choice because it's not a threat to us but by coddling the Kid playing with nuclear matchsticks China has allowed their existential threat to develop.  Geography tells the story.  Beijing at only a 500 mile distance from Pyongyang makes it so that if the PRC ever entertained the thought of decapitating the North Korean regime the time has past where it could be done without a nuclear nuclear conflagration in the hood.  

#Libertarian helps to save the planet, well Long Island Sound actually. Who would of thought?

I will be participating in a paddle board fundraising event for Long Island Sound called the SoundWaters Flotilla on July 22nd.  Donations for my effort would be greatly appreciated.

Trump is the Chaos Monkey testing resiliency of our Democracy

Chaos Monkey is a computer program that purposely simulates a monkey randomly unplugging servers to test the resiliency of a computer system.  Its mentioned solely as a metaphor for Trump testing the resiliency of our Constitution and Democracy.

Kim Jong Un is the Adolf Hitler that China can not work with and must take out

Reading Thomas Rick's Churchill & Orwell as refreshers for William Manchester's The Last Lion and George Orwell's Homage to Catalonia. Both recognized the truth despite vehement resistance. Churchill's early recognition of Hitler as someone to be resisted at all costs is what made him the hero of the previous century and Neville Chamberlain the great appeaser with his misguided statement that "Hitler is a man we can work with." Today in South Korea we see its new President Moon Jae-in try to better relations with Kim Jong-Un by whatever means possible. From afar it looks like he hopes that the bully playing with nuclear matchsticks will respond favorably to peaceful overtures.  Worse yet China, the Super Power of the region, doesn't see the kid for the menace that he is for disturbing the harmonious inter-working of the region's economies to China's detriment and chastises South Korea, and important part of the region's successful economy, for having taken U.S. defensive missiles. President Xi Jinping needs to come to Churchill's determination that Kim Jong-Un  is the Adolf Hitler that no nation can work with and take him out.

6 Jul 2017 fixed name to Kim Jong-Un rather then to his grandfather, Kim Il-Sung        

Steve Bannon Phantom of the destruction of the Administrative State

Just saw The Capital Steps 'Orange Is The New Barack' at the Symphony on West 95th and Broadway. The most perceptive skit? Steve Bannon as the Phantom of the Opera.

Trump's disdain & ignorance of law makes certain Mueller finds impeachable offenses

As one who has blogged that there too many laws and that during the normal course of business one breaks several laws everyday without knowing what they are because how can one possibly know all of them, especially ones that deviate radically from one's sense of fair play.  Now imagine Donald J Trump business career, where he used law as a weapon against others despite his ignorance and disdain for them in general, and the numbers of laws he has broken. It is a certainty that Special Prosecutor Mueller and his team after thoroughly investigating Trump's  campaign possible collusion with Russia's hacking efforts of our electoral process will divert onto some other highway of malfeasance  and come up with impeachable offenses much like Starr came up with Monica Lewinsky after not finding much in Whitewater.

'Flimflammery'USS of American health care doubly expensive with worst result

Al Franken in Giant of the Senate finds that the American Dental Association doesn't want competition. In his case it was from Alaska natives trained as dental therapist so that they could serve rural outposts where full fledged dentist would never practice.  While he wins the argument his law ran up against State licensing requirements which nullified it. Rather than identify the barriers to entry in American health where we spend twice the percent of GDP of a Germany, as an example of a well developed large economy, with poorer outcomes. In the case of mothers giving birth, grossly poorer. The headline U.S. Has Highest Maternal Deaths Among Developed Countries shows the "flim flammery"uss of the claim that we have the best health care in the world.

Allies of convenience destined for power struggles of treachery

After Raqqa & Mosul, Fates of ISIS and Syria & Iraq Rest on a Bigger Battle is a report fraught with unresolved conflict between allies of convenience dedicated to win a battle which when accomplished dissolves into power struggles of treachery. Unfortunately the treachery will be American by trying to ally irreconcilable tribal sects.  We will thank our Kurdish fighters win in Raqqa by handing them over for summary execution by a hostile Sunni Arab sect backed by Turkey. In Iraq after the conquest of Mosul Sunni Arabs will be hunted down and persecuted by Shiite Baghdad and their Iranian sponsors.

The moment is a “major crossroads” in the conflict, said Kamel Wazne, who studies Hezbollah, the United States and the Middle East and teaches at the American University of Beirut.

The Americans want to prevent the establishment of a “Shiite crescent” of influence from Iran to Lebanon, Mr. Wazne said, and to maintain “a piece of what is taking place in Syria.”

“They will not allow the Iranians and those they support to have a victory at the expense of the Americans in the whole region,” he added.   

Does the U.S. State Department  really think that Iran will give up the Shiite crescent they already have?

Shattered's 2016 post mortem: Small money smarter than big money donations

The lesson learned in the 2016 Republican primary campaign of Jeb Bush and finally Hillary's loss in the election, described in Shattered: Inside Hillary Clinton's Doomed Campaign, is that easy money raised from elites kept front runners from reading the pulse of the not so elite electorate. Bernie Sanders for example raised big money from many small donors. Donors who then feel committed to volunteer, promote to others and finally vote. But a campaign based on small donors requires a clear message that motivates, something that Jeb nor Hillary never could get around to after mingling with so much easy money.  

Trump to acquaint them with the virtues of Federalism

Two headlines today, Fighting Trump on Climate, California goes Global and Rather Than Shrink Subway Delays MTA Seeks to Fund Expansion, exemplify the National Control vs Federalism division in our politic. Governor Jerry Brown has a mandate to keep Los Angeles' air clean and a local authority pushing clean air and fuel economy requirements that California according to our Constitution has the right to do. That it convinces other States to follow its lead is their right as well. That Scott Pruitt, who used to argue States Rights when railing against the EPA, now argues for National Control when heading the EPA is a priceless example of power selecting ideology of convenience. That the New York City subway, a public good solely in its environs, is controlled and funded by Albany, the State Capitol, is a micro view of why Federal power is inefficient at determining how to allocate resources correctly. Its an example that Progressives in New York City ought to study when thinking of Washington power exerting the same dull hand to Urban vs Rural, Coastal vs Central, and cooperative vs belligerent parts of the country.

New York Times headline article of 27 September 2017 U.S. Climate Policy: Made in California reaffirms this post. Progressives' distaste for Trump to acquaint them with the virtues of Federalism, a tool formerly used by retrograde Southern politicians to stall progressive policies, to develop local solutions in rich States and Cities bypassing Washington all together.

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Donald

Watching Frontline tonight with Steve Bannon declaring the mission is the deconstruction of the Administrative State. Well, he has done it.  Central government’s work has been brought to a standstill by the Constitution’s antibodies unleashed against a malignant Presidency.  Rather than bemoan the fact that there are over five hundred un-appointed posts in the Administration’s cabinet, rejoice that the levers of power are not being pulled at his behest. Rejoice that his tweets have paralyzed his Republican majority in Congress thereby slowing the flow of useless one size fits all legislation emanating from that body.  Rejoice that Cities and States are now free to ignore Washington and direct their resources to a better living and economic environment for themselves.

Trump's jawboning shook Ford out of a poor investment

Ford's New Chief Executive Has History of Turnaround Stories and the primary one is Jim Hackett turning around Steelcase, an office furniture maker, by making the company "think more about furniture’s full role in a working environment, bringing in sociologists and anthropologists to help designers understand how people work." Ford needs a fundamental rethink, not trend following. A re-read of The Machine that Changed the World describing Toyota's development of just in time production techniques is suggested. The book ends with the vision of making product just in time to the customer's want. The industry currently is content to carry inventory where a sixty day supply of a model is considered tight and a ninety day supply loose. This was true in 1990 when the book was written as it is today. Apparently the industry has not done anything about reducing to just in time car production and delivery to the customer problem, not even Toyota the example in the book, not even to thirty days tight and sixty days loose progress one might have expected.
Mark Fields put forth plans for EV and self driving cars which is all well and good when added to a machine that makes and sells just in time, but Ford wasn't as suggested by the abandoned Mexican plant dedicated to making small cars. Trump's jawboning shook up management enough for them to rethink the project despite the sunken costs and thereby saved Ford from a loser investment, loser where overbuilding unwanted product is a profit killer. Mexico was a volume increasing investment that a 'World Changing Machine' of just in time product making and delivery would have signaled not to make.
Automakers, not just Ford or even Tesla, need to improve on just in time production and selling so that they are consistent in sales, profitability and treatment of their workforce. Ideally some assembly plants which could make trucks, SUVs and or sedans with very little change over time to smooth over changes in the market. Its the core problem that needs solving, especially for the majors with annual U.S. sales having reached a 17 million optimum level.        

Is there a Corporate Sclerosis caused by ETF's tenuous shareholder relationship?

Index Funds Unused Clout: Their Votes is a tree instead of the forest view that utterly fails to answer how the clout is to be used. How is an ETF to survey its individual holders of its individual positions so as to vote their interest? It can't, and so it votes with the Board of Directors.  Which brings up another issue which could use some scholarly research, what is the effect of stock ownership multiple times removed?

Doesn't Uber understand its a human resource developer?

Allies Turned Rivals in the Race to Build a Better Driverless Car is an example of how in business success comes from knowing what you are about.  Here we have a battle between Google and Uber over driverless cars and their development.  Google is a software developer while Uber is a human resource developer. From recent headlines its apparent that Uber is less than focused on its core mission. Driverless is going to take years and once its developed how does Uber take advantage of it with their expertise to put the underemployed to work? Sure, being the next Blockbuster is a worry but people drivers have a long future especially in the underdeveloped world.

Kurds to die in battle or thru cleansing Raqqa for Sunnis to predominate

Barnard & Kingsley's Memo from Turkey, Arming Syrian Kurds Could Come at a Cost misses the point on the biggest cost, the squandering of a valuable ally for peace in the region. The Kurdish desire a nation of their own. Its what drives their pesh merga to fight so fiercely, particularly two summers ago when retaking Kobani, a predominately Kurdish city in north eastern Syria, back from ISIS. With the conquest they came with a positive Kurdish political union to govern their own and a perfect fit with their ultimate goal. The retaking of Sunni Raqqa from ISIS using Kurdish fighters against the will of Turkey and other twisted agendas does nothing for their goal of nationhood and sets them up to fight to their death either in battle or afterward thru the cleansing of Raqqa to let Sunni Arabs predominate.    

Bottom up organizations don't have whistle blowers

John Allison's The Financial Crisis and the Free Market Cure describes the BB&T Bank and its operating style which appears to be the polar opposite of 'Too Big To Fail' top down directed major banks that are poison to their customers, employees and ultimately shareholders. James Stewart's They Exposed a Scandal But Merited Just a Footnote  describes how whistle blowers are contained at Wells Fargo. I'll bet BB&T's bottom up style doesn't have whistle blowers because the problem is noted and fixed long before it gets to the point someone thinks its necessary to go report outside.

With the 'Deplorable' in charge Progressives need to flip over to the #Libertarian side

Michael Bloomberg and Carl Pope Climate of Hope suggests you ignore the blowhard in charge and develop local market driven solutions to improve the environment in every way. FDR and his progressive followers never thought that big government would ever have as its leader such a deplorable person as what we now have controlling their Authoritarian mechanism.  For their own peace of mind and survival they need to flip over to the Libertarian side of the aisle.

Revenge fomented by our gunslinger antics will bite us with another 9/11

Sonia Kennebeck's National Bird confirms what was always suspected, that many of our drone attacks are careless blood thirsty shots at innocents.  It's haunting that it came under the Obama's thoughtful and lawful cover and the thought that haunts is the certainty the revenge fomented by our gunslinger antics will come back and bite us with another 9/11.  

Stop burning carbon immediately and mass starvation, migration and sickness will ensue

To quote from a 2009 speech of U.N. General Secretary Kofi Annan:

“Mass starvation, mass migration, and mass sickness will ensue if the world does not agree to the most ambitious international agreement ever negotiated on global warming.” 

Is from a comment on Bret Stephens debut New York Op Ed 'The Climate of Complete Certainty' which I put forth as an example of misplaced certainty on global warming.  If humanity were to take Kofi's call for action and stop the burning of carbon immediately then its mass starvation, migration and sickness that would ensue!

Trump's dysfunction to give us what Constitution envisioned: Local funding.

“When you worked for Reagan, you just knew what to do,” she once said. “Nobody had to tell you what to do. You didn’t wait for orders. You got up in the morning, went to your job, and did what you knew Reagan wanted done because you were a conservative.”

Kate O'Beirne's obit showed the value of clear ideology, especially for Washington.  Jimmy Carter was choked by detail when it wasn't clear which way he would decide so decisions got kicked upstairs. When Reagan moved in the change caused Democrats to argue that he was a lazy but the reality was that lower level officials could make decisions knowing his mind.  Authoritarian Trump's mercurial style and his disconnect with the Republican establishment leaves Washington incapable of making a decision. For survival states and cities had better stop looking to Washington. Governors and big city mayors are better off funding the programs they require locally. Its what our Constitution envisioned.   

Here is the deal: PRC takes out the Kid and the U.S. withdraws from South Korea

Cato's 'Convincing China to Coerce North Korea'

U.S. should indicate to China that its increase of military strength in the region is logical if it were meant to secure the intertwined logistics of Southeast Asia's prosperous tech economies and then point out that an out of control North Korea puts the chain at risk. Point out that for self preservation South Korea requires an American presence when the North threatens with nuclear arms and rather than counter with nuclear weapons of their own that it acquired our THAAD antimissile weaponry to defend themselves.  Point out that Japan and Taiwan may want to do the same. Point out that a misjudged nuclear conflagration would happen in their sphere of influence and may include China as well. Point out that asserting its strength and influence by invading, taking out the kid and annexing the country would be a logical means of securing the regions logistic chains of prosperity. With the irrational threat taken away American troops and the THAAD missiles could then be taken out of South Korea.        

'Veep' shows Washington at its ineffectual best

To those seeking a central government solution understand that Veep is funny because it shows Washington's disconnect to everyday people's reality.  

What the kid is proving to the world is that China has no influence

Watching ABC's High Alert in Korea showing American and South Korea defenses against North Korea makes China's lack of action toward taking out the kid in the neighborhood playing with nuclear matchsticks with an invasion and regime change inexplicable.  He draws the best American defense systems into the heart of their sphere of influence. What the kid is proving to the world is that China has no influence since its an existential threat to them, not us, should there be a nuclear exchange in the region.

Tillerson goes to Moscow with a nonstarter demand for Assad's ouster

At Meeting, Putin and Tillerson find very little to Agree on is the expected result of arriving in Moscow without an alternative to Assad must go.  Secretary of State Tillerson mentioned in his post meeting press conference that both the U.S. and Russia agree on a unified Syria, which means that a partitioned Syria where Assad is allowed to rule over his Alawite tribe and region, but not the rest of Syria, was not discussed.

Don’t Start a New Cold War Over Syria is Cato's take on the issue.

 

Obama's chemical weapons deal example of Constitutional constraint at its best

Deal on Syria's Chemical Weapons Comes Back to Haunt Obama is a poor headline for a Constitution loving  journal. The line in the sand drawn for Bashar al-Assad use of chemical weapons reached the best resolution possible because Obama asked for war powers from Congress before acting and having failed to get them  managed a Russian intervention to take them away. It should be considered a diplomatic coup and example of Constitutional constraint getting the best result possible.  

Why do Diplomats consider the Syrian Nation State as Inviolate?

U.S. Strike on Syria Fuels Uncertainty on the Ground and not only in Syria.  Watching this morning's press interviews of public officials its incredible how the status quo of Syria as a nation state remains inviolate despite the obvious illegitimacy of the Assad regime and the hard feelings engendered. Despite Trump's 'shake it up nature' its surprising no one is suggesting a policy of allowing the territory that is now defined as Syria to break up into separate like minded nation states and tribal federations.  For his Alawite tribe on the west coast there is no replacing Assad with a leader of another sect who would take vengeance on them in a manner that is very similar to Shiite Iraqis wanting vengeance against Saddam Hussein's Sunnis. So let Bashar reign over just his tribe on the west coast protecting and being protected by Putin's Russia looking to keep their only Naval Base on the Mediterranean safe. Let Kobani be the Kurdish enclave of the north east and the center and south coalesce into Sunni federations which works on eliminating ISIS with allied support.

11 April,

The kid playing with Nuclear Matchsticks is another example. Why does China not just march in there and take the kid out? It would do the PRC  a ton of good to assert that they are the sheriff in town to keep the peace and allow Southeastern Asian economies to grow unhindered. If they took the kid out South Korea could then send back the THAAD missiles and relieve their tensions as well.  

Convince Putin Assad does not deserve Russia's support to reconquer eastern Syria

American Strike on Air Base in Syria Strains Relationship With Russia requires a finesse on the part of Secretary of State Tillerson with his upcoming visit to Russia where he can salvage relations by soothing Putin with something that makes him look good, in a manner similar to his forcing Assad to give up chemical warfare at the time of Obama's line in the sand. Its never talked about but Putin supports Assad because the only Russian naval base in the Mediterranean is located in his Alawite west coast of Syria. Putin will not be a part of making Assad depart Syria and leave this base to an uncertain future, but they could be persuaded to let Syria partition to leave Assad in charge of just this west coast enclave. Neither Iran nor Russian respect Assad's capability to unite and control all of Syria. Its telling that Assad's forces felt compelled to use chemical weapons to try an consolidate nearby Kan Sheikhoun into the Alawite fold that a vision of united Syria looks unlikely for the eastern regions, even to Iran and Russia. With this reality Tillerson should hash out a deal where Putin defends Assad's Alawite west coast enclave but helps him make the assessment that Assad stepped over the line and doesn't deserve Russia's blood and treasure to reconquer eastern Syria.

Filibuster rule made Judiciary nominations more partisan and contentious, not less

Thoughts on the Judicial Nomination Process and the Nuclear Option by Jonathan Adler argues that going back to a simple majority is a good thing. I agree.

Let Syria break up into its various regions where other sects and tribes predominate

“We have consistently said that President Assad must lead a democratic transition or get out of the way,” Mr. Obama said then, in a statement that was coordinated with European allies. “For the sake of the Syrian people, the time has come for President Assad to step aside.”

This statement from Obama has got to be the stupidest, especially after the desultory result of taking out Saddam Hussein, another despot holding power with a minority sect as his power base, and thinking democracy will just bubble up and take over naturally. It's real that Assad will not be dislodged, but not necessarily for all of Syria. What is not understandable is why we can't fathom the next step  which is to let Syria break up into its various regions where other sects and tribes than Assad's Alawites predominate. It would clarify the solution to:

Still, major questions loom, including which political authorities in Syria will control Raqqa after ISIS fighters are evicted and how the international community might establish safe zones, or what Mr. Tillerson recently called “interim zones of stability,” to stem the flow of refugees. Another important question is whether it might be possible to negotiate a broader political accommodation for Syria; despite his gains, Mr. Assad lacks the military manpower to control the entire country.

and let a Sunni Arab political entity govern in Raqqa independent and protected from Assad and further to the east protect Kobani as a Kurdish enclave.  

Washington's job traing programs generate reports of effectiveness but little result

Eduardo Porter’s  ‘Carnage’ Indeed, but Trump’s Policies Would Make It Worse makes the assumption that government job training programs actually helped. Trump’s White Working Class are tired of promises that didn’t deliver and it’s so Democrat to think that making up a jobs training program directed from Washington solves the job displacement of free trade. The reality is that the program generates glowing reports of the effectiveness and need for continued funding of the government agency in charge, but no positive result for those who lost their jobs after a major employer moved out of town. The solution to job displacement is local initiative as with so many other problems Washington tries to solve.

Medicare for all should be a hard nosed service that only pays for good enough

     With Next for Obamacare Could Be Medicare for all Professor Frank makes a good point, which is that a government provided minimum health care service is where we are heading. If so then it should be a system that freely uses clinics and para medicals as gate keepers and is administered by hard nosed types who only pay for good enough services and drugs, generic off patent ones only!  An insurance floor that directs the public to supplement their coverage to take advantage of the latest medical advances and services.
     Medicaid comes of Age showed my ignorance, nevertheless a minimum level of health care, much like a utility, is our national reality so Congress should maximize competition on low level health services and drugs by minimizing barriers to entry.

Ryan's folly: Repeal Obamacare before the corporate tax cut rallying stock market

Republicans face dilemma on Health Bill is a beaut.  First and foremost they have planted it as a test of Trump's legislative prowess, which is not what he got elected for.  Repealing Obamacare was just a mantra of the GOP that he repeated without conviction. Now he is stuck first having to prove himself on a issue he really doesn't care about before getting to the stock market rallying issue of corporate tax cuts. If he figures that it's Ryan's folly to first Mr. President we have to repeal Obamacare before we can get to the good stuff then let's see how he fires the Speaker of the House.  

Until State develops a doctrine why bother with high level meets with empty talk?

Tillerson Leads from the Shadows is a New York Times headline, which reads more like an opinion piece, lamenting the fact that the State Department has little presence in the Trump Administration.  Possibly that’s a good thing.  Until the Trump administration develops a coherent doctrine why bother with high level meets with empty talk on meddlesome issues? Its job is to promote our security and commercial interests and understand the other side’s interests so that a diplomatic rather than a military resolution can be reached.  The Iran nuclear deal is a good example. For the rest of it former Secretaries Clinton and Kerry’s globetrotting was a holier than though preach fest that accomplished nothing other than resentment.

PRC should take out the kid next door and show its a useful power for the region

A Reliance on China Jeopardizes the South Korean Economy. Okay....and what about China's economy?  The PRC is investing greatly in their military and apparently, much like the United States, without a strategic goal.  From an outsider's point of view the best purpose for a strong Chinese military is to protect the logistics that ties the interdependent tech business that is the economic driver for Southeast Asia.  To allow the neighborhood kid to play with nuclear matchsticks so that South Korea and Japan buy American THAAD antimissile systems to protect themselves is the height of stupidity.  Its the kid that is damaging the regions tech hub and the danger he presents to the regions' interdependent tech industry is what will damage this very important engine of growth and prosperity.  Rather than punish South Korea the PRC should take out the kid and show its a useful power for the region.    

Healthcare seeks bottom up solutions, its a quagmire for top down authoritarians

Why Republicans Can't do Healthcare because Donald Trump is a populist, repealing Obamacare is not a populist issue rather a Conservative, Libertarians included, one. Its a quagmire for a top down authoritarian fearful of having the end result called, Trumpcare!

Military action should be the last resort. Gross build up makes it the first.

Before he became defense secretary, Gen. Jim Mattis once pleaded with Congress to invest more in State Department diplomacy.

Wow, Mattis appears to have his head screwed on right. In diplomacy military action is the last resort. All this emphasis on military build up makes war the first resort.  Naming Defense the War Department again would have a clarifying effect for the President, Congress and the public.

Why not question viability replacing despot's iron will over middle eastern tribes?

This is not the first administration to find itself absorbed by a book on Vietnam. When President Barack Obama contemplated sending more troops to Afghanistan, he and his staff read “Lessons in Disaster,” by Gordon M. Goldstein, an account of McGeorge Bundy, the national security adviser to Johnson. The book found that Johnson had failed to question the underlying domino theory that the fall of one country to communism would lead to others.

If failure to question the domino theory caused the escalation of Johnson's Vietnam war effort then failure to question the theory we are able to replace by force a despot's iron will over various middle east tribes with a unified and democratic government causes our continual grind in warfare. Let Iraq and Syria balkanize as they will and support diplomatically and with humanitarian aid those regions that govern successfully.      

Progressives to revert to same States Rights argument Southern obstructionists used

Pogo’s “we have met the enemy and he is us” is the observation that progressive’s will soon understand as theirs by having made Washington a meddlesome institution that can do unto them with the same autocratic contrary behaviour as they had done unto the rural rubes previously. Democrats will have to concentrate their efforts inward toward the coastal urban states and resist Washington with the same States Rights arguments that Southern obstructionists had used against them. If California should decide its natural course is to provide higher education, comprehensive health care and sanctuary protection for the immigrant population that fuels its economy then it should self fund and disentangle itself from the central web that holds it back by reasserting the rights of States never ceded to the central government by the Constitution. Its this structure of government that will save us from the autocracy envisioned by David Frum’s opinion piece in The Atlantic.

N.S.C. is example of government bloat Trump could hack off without consequence

Bannon Has No Place on the N.S.C. because President would be better served consulting directly with State, Defense and Intelligence.  Its and example of government bloat that Trump could hack off without consequence.

Has GE considered marketing onsite generators fueled by otherwise flared gas?

Mr. Sumner’s group, along with the American Petroleum Institute and other major industry trade associations and individual companies and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, all pressed congressional leaders to immediately repeal the methane rule, which the Interior Department finalized in November.

The measure, according to the department, would force companies to prevent the release of gas via flaring or leaks, eliminating an estimated 180,000 tons a year of methane gas, a contributing factor in climate change, while also increasing federal revenue by as much as $10 million a year, as the energy companies pay royalties only on fuel they contain and then sell

Has GE considered marketing on site generators fueled by gas that would otherwise be flared?  The excess electricity could be put on the grid and in North Dakota, for example, reduce coal burning at local utility.  

Original Meaning the best defense against Trump's autocracy

David Frum’s “How to Build an Autocracy” is a disturbing vision of what we have to look forward to under Donald J. Trump. The question is what to do about his total capture of the reigns of power where demonstrations against him only validate his actions among his supporters and Republican’s rural base will lead party leaders by the nose to do his bidding. The answer is to dismantle those reigns of power that Progressive’s pursued to Federalize the Constitution to the detriment of States Rights with the expectation that the central government would always be lead by an elite.
The tool to dismantle is original meaning as practiced by Supreme Court Judge Clarence Thomas. The great deviation in the interpretation of the commerce clause of the Constitution began when Congress used it as justification to enact the Interstate Commerce act of 1887. The ICC had a long history in government meddling until it was finally abolished in 1995. Despite its demise its legacy of central government meddling grew exponentially from four cabinet positions to fifteen; the Secretaries of Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing and Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury, and Veterans Affairs from the original four.  It's a dangerous array of tools to hand over to a deplorable whose natural instinct is toward crony capitalism.
De-Federalizing Washington is a long term direction; short term, States should look inward to solve and serve its citizens. Its what the founding fathers intended. California, for example, should ignore Washington and do what it prefers so that if it wants to be the sanctuary state then ask federal officials enforcing Trump's will to leave. If marijuana legalization creates a bank cash problem then charter State Banks to allow transactions to be settled in alternates to cash as a crime control measure and ignore Federal bank regulations disallowing it. And the list goes on.