Thomas Friedman - Syria, Obama and Putin

If we want something better — multisectarian democracy in Syria soon — we would have to go in and build it ourselves. The notion that it would only take arming more Syrian moderates is insane.

If a grand strategy to pacify the area accepts that Syria has to split up then let moderate Sunnis who fled Syria and now are in Jordanian refugee camps self develop a Syrian enclave on the border with Jordan protected and funded by the allies to expand north and westward so as to relieve Jordan and Europe of those fleeing political dysfunction.  Isolate and contain Assad in his Alawite enclave by the sea.  Fully fund and protect the Kurdish enclave in Northern Syria so it expands south and westward along the Turkish border and ignore Turkey's protestations.  Finally make life difficult for ISIS by starving it of oil revenues with the bombing of drilling and refining facilities.

Where Fools Rush In

Kerry Rushes In to Go Where Obama Will Not makes it apparent that the one flailing about jawing mindlessly is John Kerry.  Vladimir Putin's "this guy is a waste of time" look in this article's photograph says it all.  Putin is right in asking what happens after you take out Assad. Its the question that W never asked before taking out Saddam Hussein.  The long term strategy to pacify the region is not to take out Assad but to contain him and his Alawite tribe in their western enclave by the sea.

Amendment VIII

Excessive bail shall not be required, nor excessive fines  imposed, nor cruel and unusual punishments imposed.

Municipalities that feed off their citizens such as Ferguson Missouri should be tested in the Supreme Court for violating this primary and basic bill of right. Another municipal abuse is civil forfeiture without due process which renders the forfeiture as an excessive fine.

Flailing About with Iran and Russia

Secretary of State John Kerry sought on Saturday to draw Iran into the search for a political solution to the Syrian conflict is a disturbing headline. Disturbing that a political solution is being sought in a region without central governance.  How does diplomacy in Syria solve the crying need for functioning government?  Apparently the Administration doesn’t realize that without a strategy this playing with Iran and Russia on diplomatic optics showing engagement in Syria just feeds the cynical opportunism of Putin and the Ayatollah to pander to their domestic hardliners.
The grand strategy for the allies in the Middle East must be to pacify the region. This would lead to radical conclusion to let the various sects split out and form independent city states of like minded citizens. The allies should then concentrate on protecting the individual states from each other, such as blowing barrel bombing helicopters out of the sky.  A tactic toward this strategy would be to place the refugee camps in Jordan back into Syria to be protected and funded by the allies so that they may possibly develop workable political unions, similar to what the Kurdish people have, that marches in the direction of the grand strategy to pacify.

Gone - House Republicans from California

Kevin McCarthy Expected to Seek Speaker John Boehner's Post in the House will put an existential marker on the Republican Party when he is targeted by Democrats in his California district with a a heavy Latino demographic and loses his 2016 re-election.  After Trump there shouldn't be a Republican from California left in the House.  A Speaker of the House position lost because of a Hispanic landslide will be poetic justice and the beginning of the end of the Grand Old Party, emphasis on old, because Texas can't be far behind.

Ian Bremmer

I use Charlie Rose as a curator.  Ian Bremmer insights on the geopolitical situation were useful  because Charlie's repeated interviews made them credible.  Last night Bremmer's comment that that Marco Rubio and Graham Lyndsey were the two Republican candidates with viable foreign policy views destroyed that credibility to the point of putting in doubt everything he speaks of.

Oases, Enclave and Safe Haven

Former U.S. Commander Sharply Criticizes Syria Policy indicates that somewhere in the bowels of the foreign policy and military complex the idea that oases of moderate Sunni governance in Syria is being considered.  This comes from General Petraeus' opening statement before the Senate Armed Services Committee where he mentioned enclaves briefly.  Too briefly. It requires further elaboration.

Covering Shortfalls is not Enough

U.N. Funding Shortfalls and Cuts in Refugee Aid Fuel Flight to Europe shows the shortcoming causing the exodus from political dysfunction. To attract the refugees back to their homeland requires city states with sufficient governance to distribute scarce resources for the public good as well as police and adjudicate fairly.  Europe is a utopia to the refugees, something similar is necessary to convince them to return.

The GOP supports the hundred or so individuals that enjoy this carried interest sinecure at its peril

Grover Norquist of Americans for Tax Reform does his defund the government by starving the beast campaign no favor by supporting the financial elites carried interest tax dodge because one would have to question his motives. It’s an arcane loophole carved out of a complex code by accountants, lawyers and lobbyists working to line the pockets of super elite Wall Street rent seekers, Mitt Romney’s Bain Capital being a principal example.  Why would Norquist support this elite’s tax avoidance scheme unless he was being paid by moneyed interests to do it?  If the tax code was correctly interpreted then the slight increase in tax receipts to feed the beast is much less than the loss of populist appeal to his tax reform movement.  Donald Trump’s recent success on the campaign trail  comes from an admission that as an elite he has paid for his interests to be promoted in the corridors of influence.  He knows how the system works and his observation that he has friends making billions not paying taxes, resonates.  The GOP supports the hundred or so individuals that enjoy this carried interest sinecure at its peril and so does Grover.

Rand Paul in Last Night's Republican Talk Fest

Rand's consistent Constitution based  and long term view of American history is very reassuring.  Its a solid ideology that stands the test of time.  2016 may not work out but like Ronald Reagan, try and try again because eventually when you are proven to be consistently right, the chips fall in your in favor.

The money is Already there for the Oases Program

The rebel training program is putting the cart before the horse where Few U.S. Trained Syrians Still Fight ISIS, Senators are Told.  Four rebels for $500 million!  Even if these four Rambos win and takeover a town, what happens after the fight?  Even Daesh realizes you have to administer and deliver services to the regions under their control. The allies need capable political unions capable of governing where there is now a political vacuum.
Instead of funding this really dumb program, use $100 million to completely fund the U. N. World Food Program Syrian Refugee Camps in Jordan to immediately halt the migration into Europe.  The remaining $400 million would be a good start for funding the refugees to move the camps into Syria and begin self governed oases of city states of moderate Sunnis protected by Jordan's army and allied air forces. If others, Gulf States and Europe, would help to fund The Oases Project so that refugees get the money to personally commit to finance the housing built in Syria. With settlement, security and prosperity the beginnings of a capable political union, such as what the Kurdish have in Iraq, would eventually develop a militia with which the city states could expand their moderate governance north and westward so that Syrian refugees in Europe would return to their homeland.

The Man Who Would Be King

Its my favorite movie with Sean Connery and Michael Caine.  The new version starring Donald Trump, uh.... not so good.

Trust Me, It Will be Great

Whenever The Donald's answers a policy question with his usual trust me line, remember the devil is in the details.

Egypt Kills Mexican Tourists with Apache Helicopters

Troops' Mistake Kills Tourists and Imperils Egyptian Lifeline is not an unexpected result when we hand over weapons that are actually fomenting revolution rather than quelling it.  It's so predictable that General Sisi will fall to an virulently anti American Muslim Brotherhood, yet Obama yields to the insanity of supporting a regime that will prove to once again to Muslim radicals that yes, we are the Great Satan.
Barack, call up Jimmy Carter and ask him how two faced it felt like to have called the Shah of Iran a great ally and bulwark of stability months before he fell and Iran became our implacable enemy. As our best post President he will probably give you a very cogent answer.  Call him before he goes.

The Oases Program

“The cash-strapped World Food Program has had to drop one-third of Syrian refugees from its food voucher program in Middle Eastern host countries this year, including 229,000 in Jordan who stopped receiving food aid in September,”  a U.N. spokeswoman reported recently. This cash shortage has been evident all year causing a good portion of the migration to Europe.  Today’s headline is that Germany orders curbs at the border to manage the receipt of a  million refugees.  Its an impossible situation with a conundrum between the humanitarian need to accommodate those fleeing government dysfunction and the danger of domestic reaction to the influx of so many strangers in homogeneous societies.  Scandinavian countries considered models of generosity and civility are so small and the numbers of refugees choosing to go there so large that an alternative has to be found or it will end badly.  Badly as the July 2011 slaughter at a Norwegian Youth Camp by a deranged right wing extremist deploring  Norway’s acceptance of outsiders.  Denmark is already showing its counter reaction. Germany’s  huge influx of immigrants has a simmering nativist reaction that is sure to come to an ugly boil.  For self preservation this hand wringing has got to stop and the humanitarian alternative found that doesn’t leave dead refugees on the beach.  The alternative is to create oases of sanity in the regions of political dysfunction, starting with Syria.

Norway has a giant oil trust funding a tiny population’s future.  They should divert some of those oil receipts to overfund the U. N.’s World Food Program immediately and make Jordan’s refugee camps an attractive destination for those fleeing from dysfunction.  I leave it to Norway for this quick salve to the problem while the EU spends to house and feed migrants already in Europe and the allies to develop and fund a long term oases making project.

Jordan as a country has enough on its hands domestically that the Syrian refugee camps are looked on with alarm.  Rather than have our Department of Defense work on it’s useless recruitment campaign for Syrian rebels without a political base, let it work on a project to create protected oases on the South Eastern border by moving the Jordanian refugee camps into Syria! The legalities of such of an endeavour are debatable, but so is the legality of the Assad regime.  Jordanian troops and allied air forces would protect these camps as they develop into city states which over time self govern and police themselves with nascent self developed political unions.  Ultimately a loyal militia would arise with which to expand West and North.  Oasis making requires a giant spigot of cash to the people.  The U.N.’s program in Jordan gives the refugee families debit cards with which it distributes cash to them so that they can buy the food and services they choose.  The oasis program would use a version of this system so that housing of the new city states is funded by the cash in the refugee’s hands and less so from bureaucrat cake eaters.

The oasis creation program would not get the full U. N. security council’s approval because of sovereignty issues as well Russia’s resistance in support of the current regime. The project has to be an allied effort.  Funding by the U.S. could come from eliminating and defunding a carrier task force whose air power in this region is proving to be counterproductive. Other oil rich states in the region with a preference to check writing versus taking in refugees should help fund the projects.  A benefit of free market prosperity engendered by the debit card system are bottoms up economies that pacify with entrepreneurship and trade.  If the southeastern program in Syria develops good momentum then the northeast region below Turkey could do the same with the Kurds.  Assad and his Alawite tribe could retreat to the sea North of Lebanon and thereby separate Syria into four distinct regions; a moderate Sunni south, Kurdish north, Alawite west and a radical Sunni center.  As each oasis prospers with self rule and allied protection the fractious center is contained and diminishes with expanding moderate city states of refugees returning from Europe.

A grand strategy to pacify the Middle East  requires a recognition that a sane society comes from political unions that deliver scarce resources for the greatest public good. Military might that is not followed up with a strong government that administers, polices and adjudicates effectively accomplishes nothing.  The cost of funding oases of sanity is minor in comparison to Europe’s expense to house, feed and assimilate migrants.  Over the long term these oases will develop political unions to serve its people effectively so they can fully take over their development and security and prove to be attractive to people longing to return to their homeland and thereby relieve the pressure on Europe.

The Man Who Would Be King

Rolling Stones' brilliant article on Donald Trump examines the giant wrecking ball smashing into the Republican establishment

Bernie is Correct

If governments are judged by how efficiently they allocate scarce resources for the maximum public good then Bernie Sanders is correct in determining that Scandinavian socialism is ahead of our crony capitalist infected system.

Flexible Ted

Ted Cruz has the ideological anchor of a man who brilliantly lead his college debating team arguing on either side of any issue.

A Deception That Puts us all at Risk

This comment on the editorial: We Dont't Need Kim Davis in Jail says it all.

bboot

 Vermont 4 hours ago

This is just specious reasoning. Mr. Anderson is trying to find a foothold where one does not exist. There is plenty of room for private practice of religion, as long as it doesn't break the law in other ways so Ms. Davis can quit her public role and believe whatever she wishes but she does not have the right to refuse to do her job, the one to which she was elected, because of private beliefs. It seems pretty straightforward, accommodation, as Anderson suggests, allows people to pick and choose what they will enforce. Opening that door, as many have outlined, raises intolerable issues about whether police or military have that freedom, or fireman, or legislators. Where is the line and what is the role of law in a nation of laws? Ms. Davis can withdraw from society to hold her beliefs as she chooses, but she cannot hold public office and claim exemption from responsibility for private belief. Anderson is, of course, following the line that would allow the Confederacy to practice slavery as a 'matter of conscience and belief' while obliging the Federal government to protect and support them. This like of argument is dangerous and manipulative--he panders to his own audience claiming to find them room that does not exist. That deception puts us all at risk because it is simply wrong.

My comment is that candidates; Huckabee, Cruz, Jindal, Rubio and Santorum for example, that pander rather than teach their own on this issue are disqualified because they misunderstand what it is to honor the Constitution of The United States which they would solemnly declare to uphold if they were to get elected.

Killing His Market Credibility and Dooming China to a Great Recession

Reporter's Shaming Signals China's Tightening Control does exactly the opposite, as in the Bloomberg television reporters rolling eyes when reporting the confession of a business publication reporter for news gathering through abnormal channels.
Meanwhile a few pages into the New York Times there is a full page ad for CN Times Books welcoming Xi Jinping on his visit to the U. S. and offering books with exciting insights into his path for China's future; yeah that's right, a perpetual depression!

Foreign Policy Gotcha Question that got the Questioner

Hugh Hewitt's Trump interview showed more foreign policy knowledge by The Donald  with his response that the Kurds are being horribly mistreated rather than miss hearing Quds and General Soleimani of Iran's semi secret army in Iraq, Syria.
The real irony is the "Meet The Press" cutaway to Marco Rubio as the Republican candidate who really knows foreign policy. Right, a foreign policy as briefed by Dick Cheney cohorts.

Rand Paul's most Compelling Issue

Reform to the Criminal Justice System

Pointless Ideologues Continued

Every Presidential candidate defending Kim Davis, the Kentucky county clerk jailed in contempt of court for refusing to issue marriage licenses, and her religious right to decide what laws to repsect as an agent of government is disqualified for not honoring  the oath to preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of The United States.   Unbelievably Donald Trump got this right on MSNBC by declaring we are a nation of laws. I haven't heard Rand Paul's take on this, but I expect it to be similar.

GOP's Chesty Foreign Policy

Robert Draper’s “The Invasion Equation” illustrates the Republican’s foreign policy incoherence which comes a from a fundamental misunderstanding of equating military with political power.  That most of the candidates are calling up the neocon experts who ushered in our current Middle Eastern morass is laughable.  Rand Paul’s view that the defense expenditures need to be reduced is the motive force driving him toward a more rational foreign policy of do no harm. Otherwise the G.O.P. falls in with the “chesty” version of foreign policy posturing which requires bloodletting, something that doctors thought was beneficial  two hundred years ago.

The Federal Reserve Bank and the Rate Increase

Its apparent that China's authoritarian government will keep their economy in a great recession for the next generation so that if Janet Yellen raises the Fed rate this month by one quarter of one percent or not then is laughably insignificant.  

Pointless Over Thinking by a Clueless Ideologue.

Marco Rubio Says Government Should Respect Kim Davis's Beliefs is an example of a politician who has a profound misunderstanding of the Constitution of the United States to the point of disqualification.  As an agent of government Ms. Davis is to do her job or quit, any other comment comes from a pointless over thinking by a clueless ideologue.
Today Judicial Lawlessness crossed into Judicial Tyranny from Ted Cruz is another statement of disqualification.

The GOP's Carried Interest Problem

Increase Taxes? Trump Talk Alarms GOP brings up "carried interest" which is an arcane tax fiddle developed and defended by sharp tax accountants where fees, income, are put into the investment. asset & liabilities, side of the ledger with a wink wink to the hedge fund manager client asking, "isn't that how it works boys?" Getting rid of this special interest favor carved out and supported by the huge financial services lobby in Congress would be difficult because of the money put up by hedge fund elites to resist it. Steve Schwarzman of Blackstone and a perennial billion dollar income earner has called tampering with carried interest as un-American.  For regular Americans Grover Norquist's pledge against tax increase would not be broken by allowing this tax loop hole to be closed. Every candidate, Hillary included, who doesn't make it an issue to get rid of carried interest is declaring they are beholden to Wall Street elites rigging the game in their favor.