Saturday, May 12, 2018

The Art of No Deal where Europe allies itself with Russia and China against Iran sanctions and works out a deal with China on tariffs

Donald Trump has been making good on promised unilateral
decisions, the latest being the exit from the Iran Nuclear deal,
without ever asking, now what?  He has no appreciation of
linkage or cultivating allies. Possibly his real estate
experience causes him to approach each deal as a local one
where as foreign affairs is about issues, nuclear proliferation
or tariff negotiation for example, so that proceeding in many
geographies at once he cedes negotiating power.


John Bolton, Trump’s latest National Security  Advisor, has
publicly declared that regime change is the desired result of
the break of Iran’s nuclear accord. Isn’t regime change North
Korea’s Kim Jong-un greatest fear?  It’s difficult to see how
Trump will successfully subdue the Kid into denuclearizing.
But he may drive him into China's fatherly embrace.
Trump taking on NAFTA, steel and aluminum imports, and trade
with China all at once is another example.  He has given
Europe an extension until June 12th, the same day he is due
to be in Singapore for the Kim Jong-un Summit, which won’t
change their irreconcilable treaty obligations with other
trading partners so that it is likely the tariffs will go into effect
just when we are trying to convince Europe to comply with
economic sanctions against Iran which they don’t agree should
be put in place.  On the other hand if Trump had chosen to just
go after China on tariffs then Europe would have gladly joined
in an effort as our ally.  Now they may decide to go with China and
Russia against our Iran decision and while they are at it possibly
work out a deal with China on tariffs as well.

Sunday 13 May: Just saw John Bolton on ABC where he expressed
Der Spiegel's opinion that the Trump Administration is driving a wedge
between the U.S. and its European allies as silly.
Wow, just received a like tweet over this comment of silly by a Trump
bot that misinterpreted it as a positive comment about Bolton. What a
perfect metaphor for the mindless Trump reign.

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